- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,099
- Reactions
- 16,884
Basically, that is the end result assuming that virtually all new and replacement non-intermittent generation is gas-fired. I have serious doubts that this will actually occur due to gas supply physical and financial constraints. Time will tell however...by 2029-30 generation from gas will be delivering 135,000 GWh annually with wind providing 44,000 GWh (about the current power output in Victoria) and hydro-electric systems (by then 70 years old) contributing 13,000 GWh. On this assessment, solar will be bringing up the rear (only 4,000 GWh) along with geothermal (6,000 GWh) and bioenergy (3,000 GWh).
Coal in 2030 is essentially at the level that would result from a "no new construction" policy. That is, just keep running existing plants until they are absolutely worn out.
As for the bit about 70 year old hydro schemes, that's about right on average but by 2030 the oldest significant scheme in operation will be 116 years old.