John McCain

[ZzzzDad]

Serious question ZZD.
(and although I post those bookie's odds, I find them increasingly hard to believe i.e. at the very least, those odds should be closer you'd think)

But concerning Rasmussen and Gallop Polling - their published results seem to be miles apart.

Do they have barrows to push? are they politically tainted, right and left respectively?

e.g. typical question by Rasmussen "what do you think of Sarah Palin's georgous smile? Is she prettier than your wife? Points out of 10?"

e.g. typical question by Gallop "how many moose do you think that Palin woman murderd last year? If you put lipstick on a pitbull, would you kiss it? etc?"

If you get my drift.

I don't think they are biased one way or the other, but have different formulas. Gallup seems to fluctuate much more than Rasmussen. Rasmussen has been very close to accurate over the past several election cycles. I will have to do a little research for a better answer.

 

[ZzzzDad]

But concerning Rasmussen and Gallop Polling - their published results seem to be miles apart.

By the way, they are not really that far appart

Rasmussen has Obama 48 McCain 46

Gallup has Obama 48 McCain 44

Each of these two polls by the way are three day rolling averages. Only one day of the Palin speech is included. By Monday there should be a better indication of how much bounce McCain/Palin had. I would bet McCain/Palin will be up in both by then.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

By the way, they are not really that far appart

Rasmussen has Obama 48 McCain 46

Gallup has Obama 48 McCain 44

Each of these two polls by the way are three day rolling averages. Only one day of the Palin speech is included. By Monday there should be a better indication of how much bounce McCain/Palin had. I would bet McCain/Palin will be up in both by then.

I feel that I'm closer to getting that beer off 2020.

Its like stocks, once you get a pivot point, then a new trend begins. McCain before this last week needed a miracle.

I think he got it in Sarah Barracuda Palin.

gg

 

[2020hindsight]

I feel that I'm closer to getting that beer off 2020.

lol - time will tell..

As for Rasmussen , I went there and searched for "graph" and it didn't want to know..

So I prefer Gallup (based on user-friendliness ). Certainly that graph below looks close.

Mind you I found this on Rasmussen, and I would agree .... you can't expect to emerge from total obscurity, and with 2 months to go, not to be subjected to a heap of intense scrutiny.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub...ary_by_joe_conason/why_bristol_s_baby_matters

Why Bristol's Baby Matters
A Commentary By Joe Conason

Thursday, September 04, 2008 Email to a FriendAdvertisementFamilies deserve privacy about family matters, but families that want absolute privacy should stay out of politics. Sooner or later someone would have noticed the pregnancy of Bristol Palin, 17-year-old daughter of John McCain's vice-presidential pick, especially since everyone in her hometown of Wasilla, Alaska, seemed to know already.

The question that remains is what, if anything, her plight may portend for the rest of us.

With all due respect to this young woman, her future husband and the rest of the family -- and best wishes to all of them for a successful birth -- let us first stop pretending that this is good news. There are excellent reasons why we discourage teenage pregnancy and motherhood, and none of them have disappeared simply because the Republicans are about to put Sarah Palin on their ticket.

Adolescents are rarely prepared to take on the challenges of raising a child. Often they drop out of school as a result, and usually become dependent on their own parents for support (which may be complicated for a family whose mom is running for vice president). Pregnancies in adolescence are high-risk, and the babies born to teenage mothers tend to have more illnesses during their first year of life. Teenage marriages -- whether or not they occur because of an unplanned pregnancy -- have a tendency to work out poorly, too. ("I don't want to have kids," noted Bristol Palin's prospective husband Levi Johnston, 18, on his MySpace page, according to the New York Post, and at his age, why would he?)

But such is life in the red states, where sensible sex education and availability of contraceptives are discouraged for adolescents, even though they are just as sexually active as teenagers everywhere else. Despite the supposed religious purity of the evangelical right-wingers who today regard themselves as the base of the Republican Party, rates of teenage pregnancy and divorce tend to be higher in their domain than elsewhere in America. To the extent that their values would dominate for another four years of Republican rule, those pathologies can be expected to prevail. During the past four years of the Bush administration, teen pregnancies have increased for the first time since 1990, when they began a 14-year decline.

That is why the story of Bristol Palin raises a serious public policy issue. If we have acquired too much information about her, we may not yet have learned quite enough about her mother (just like those hapless vetters of her candidacy in the McCain campaign).

It seems fair to assume, however, that Sarah Palin's enthusiasm for "abstinence-only" sex education, which is shared by Sen. McCain, helped to cause her daughter's misfortune. As a politician who insists on lecturing adolescents to abstain without teaching them about contraception, she may never have informed Bristol how to protect herself from an unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease. Her views on reproductive rights -- including opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest -- are too extreme even for her running mate

She seems to contradict him on many matters . So who's boss ?
and if he dies in harness, (not wishing harm on anyone etc), do we switch over to a Pauline Hanson Presidency?
(Palin Hanson?)

http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx

 

[2020hindsight]

PS I bet the polar bears and the mooses wished she'd stayed in Idaho.

Also when the oil slicks start killing wildlife, (like a water-torture everlasting miniature of the Exxon Valdezz conditions) I'm guessing that the Eskimos with any green streak - or devotion to Eskimo religious principles - won't thank her that much either

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inuit_mythology
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanook
Eskimo gods include Nonook . the master of polar bears

In Inuit mythology, Nanook or Nanuq[1] (Inuktitut syllabics: ᓇᓄᖅ[2]), which is from the Inuit language for polar bear, was the master of bears, meaning he decided if hunters had followed all applicable taboos and if they deserved success in hunting bears.

also Tekkeitsertok, the master of caribou,
and Sedna , the master of sea animals.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tekkeitsertok
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sedna_(deity)

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=82450

But If I were the Mother of Nature, ..
and my world was a breaking shell,
And someone was pouring black oil on my birds (or polar bears) …
and poisoning, slowly, the well,
And deserts were growing like wildfire..
and wildfires were burning like Hell,
I’d be just a tiddy- wee-bit concerned, …
And I’d probably opt to sell !!

Or make a new pact to clean up my act,
(this dome, my home, where I love to roam)
and try to make patient well;
......
And stare down their eyes when they rabidly foam ,
while ringing some Heavenly bell.

 

[ZzzzDad]

Bounce baby bounce!!!

Released: September 06, 2008

Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

 

[ZzzzDad]

September 7, 2008
Gallup Daily: McCain Moves Ahead, 48% to 45%McCain enjoying increase in support following conventionUSA Election 2008 Gallup Daily Americas Northern America PRINCETON, NJ -- The latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking update shows John McCain moving ahead of Barack Obama, 48% to 45%, when registered voters are asked for whom they would vote if the presidential election were held today.



These results are based on Sept. 4-6 interviewing, and include two full days of polling after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention last Thursday night. McCain has outpolled Obama on both Friday and Saturday, and is receiving a convention bounce just as Obama did last week.

Tomorrow's report will be the first in which all interviews were conducted after the conclusion of the convention. Gallup measures convention bounces by comparing candidate support in the last poll done entirely before a party's presidential nominating convention begins with the first polling conducted entirely after its conclusion.

McCain's 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain's largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.

 

[2020hindsight]

....
I galluped, he galluped , they galluped, we galluped all four

 

[ZzzzDad]

Here is another Gallup poll released today (not the same one as posted above, that is the tracking poll 3 day average):

Notice the part where among LIKELY voters McCain is ahead 54-44. This is the real polls they will be running with right before election day.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-09-07-poll_N.htm

WASHINGTON ”” The Republican National Convention has given John McCain and his party a significant boost, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken over the weekend shows, as running mate Sarah Palin helps close an "enthusiasm gap" that has dogged the GOP all year.
McCain leads Democrat Barack Obama by 50%-46% among registered voters, the Republican's biggest advantage since January and a turnaround from the USA TODAY poll taken just before the convention opened in St. Paul. Then, he lagged by 7 percentage points.

The convention bounce has helped not only McCain but also attitudes toward Republican congressional candidates and the GOP in general.......

In the new poll, taken Friday through Sunday, McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote. The survey of 1,022 adults, including 959 registered voters, has a margin of error of +/”” 3 points for both samples.

Okay, this is a convention bounce for the moment, and inevitably will fade, but if you are a betting man 2020, you might want to take advantage of those betting odds by putting some money down on McCain.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Like the true gentleman and warrior he is, John McCain has offered Obama a position in his Republican cabinet post election.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/toby_h...ohn_mccain_offers_barack_obama_a_cabinet_post


gg

 

[2020hindsight]

Some points to ponder .... This Vets website entertain the possibility that he'd be the easiest person to blackmail in the "free" world.

http://www.usvetdsp.com/mcprsrel.htm

How much more cooperation did POW McCain give his communist interrogators?

It is incumbent upon presidential candidate McCain to prove to the American people that the 5 1/2 years he spent at the mercy of communist interrogators did not make him mentally unstable and that the Vietnamese, Russians, Chinese and Cubans have nothing in their secret files about his behavior as a prisoner they could use to blackmail a President John McCain.

Candidate McCain must explain why, during a May 1993 meeting with Vietnamese officials in Hanoi, he and former POW Pete Peterson (now U.S. ambassador to Vietnam) asked the Vietnamese to keep "Vietnamese files in their possession pertaining to American POWs who were released in 1973 available ONLY to Defense Intelligence Agency researchers."

Garnet Bill Bell, special assistant to Gen. Thomas W. Needham, commander of the Joint Task Force for Full Accounting, was present at that meeting along with several other Americans.

The Vietnamese, according to Bell, agreed to keep the files, which were apparently extensive, confidential but threatened to release their files on former POW Marine Private Robert Garwood if he continued "to say bad things about them and accuse them of holding living American prisoners of war."

Candidate McCain must explain why he wants those files kept secret.

Candidate McCain is a strong advocate for bringing Bosnian and Yugoslavian war criminals before a war crimes tribunal, but is opposed to any kind of war crimes investigation of the Vietnamese. Investigations and subsequent trials could bring to justice the Vietnamese torturers known by the American POWs as "the Bug, ... etc " and many others that were responsible for the murder of at least 55 U.S. POWs and the brutal torture of hundreds of others.

Candidate McCain must explain why he refuses to ask for a war crimes investigation of the Vietnamese, his former captors.

Sen. McCain stunned onlookers at the hearing when he rushed forward to the witness table and warmly embraced Col. Bui Tin as if he was a long, lost brother.

Candidate McCain must answer whether or not he had any contact with the Soviets while he was a prisoner of the communists.

Candidate McCain must answer why he warmly embraced Col. Bui Tin, one of his former interrogators.

A McCain POW timeline proving that McCain's collaborations with the enemy continued over a three year period can be found on the internet at: http://www.usvetdsp.com/mcianhro.htm

 

[ZzzzDad]

Some points to ponder .... This Vets website entertain the possibility that he'd be the easiest person to blackmail in the "free" world.

http://www.usvetdsp.com/mcprsrel.htm

Shameful smears of an honorable man. The same man as in the below excerpt:

But enough with the snark. As Dr. Allen pursued her cutting-edge google search across the interwebs, a familiar name emerged in connection with the Obama-is-a-Muslim smear: But enough with the snark. As Dr. Allen pursued her cutting-edge google search across the interwebs, a familiar name emerged in connection with the Obama-is-a-Muslim smear: But enough with the snark. As Dr. Allen pursued her cutting-edge google search across the interwebs, a familiar name emerged in connection with the Obama-is-a-Muslim smear: Ted Sampley

Around the same time Ted Sampley, a North Carolina man who runs his own Web site, published a similar piece. In an interview, he denied authorship of the e-mail, but said he did not doubt that his article had provided source material. “That’s the miracle of it,” Sampley said. “Once it takes off, and people start posting it on Web sites, you really have no idea how far it goes or who reads it. You get a ripple effect. It’s like a little pebble and then it gets bigger and bigger.”
Sampley is the fantasist who says (and has said for years) that John McCain is a Manchurian Candidate, reprogrammed by Hanoi to…I don’t know, do something Communisty when he gets into power, I guess. Sampley also formed an anti-Kerry group of Vietnam Veterans in 2004 that is often confused with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and in fact is usually lumped in with them on lefty websites in order to discredit the actual Swift Boat Veterans led by John O’Neill. (Dean Esmay explained the difference in those groups here.)

I’m not surprised to see Sampley involved in the Obama-is-a-secret Muslim-smear; the man has an amazing talent to place-kick John Birchy conspiracy theories into the mainstream..

Around the same time Ted Sampley, a North Carolina man who runs his own Web site, published a similar piece. In an interview, he denied authorship of the e-mail, but said he did not doubt that his article had provided source material. “That’s the miracle of it,” Sampley said. “Once it takes off, and people start posting it on Web sites, you really have no idea how far it goes or who reads it. You get a ripple effect. It’s like a little pebble and then it gets bigger and bigger.”
Sampley is the fantasist who says (and has said for years) that John McCain is a Manchurian Candidate, reprogrammed by Hanoi to…I don’t know, do something Communisty when he gets into power, I guess. Sampley also formed an anti-Kerry group of Vietnam Veterans in 2004 that is often confused with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and in fact is usually lumped in with them on lefty websites in order to discredit the actual Swift Boat Veterans led by John O’Neill. (Dean Esmay explained the difference in those groups here.)

I’m not surprised to see Sampley involved in the Obama-is-a-secret Muslim-smear; the man has an amazing talent to place-kick John Birchy conspiracy theories into the mainstream.

Around the same time Ted Sampley, a North Carolina man who runs his own Web site, published a similar piece. In an interview, he denied authorship of the e-mail, but said he did not doubt that his article had provided source material. “That’s the miracle of it,” Sampley said. “Once it takes off, and people start posting it on Web sites, you really have no idea how far it goes or who reads it. You get a ripple effect. It’s like a little pebble and then it gets bigger and bigger.”
Sampley is the fantasist who says (and has said for years) that John McCain is a Manchurian Candidate, reprogrammed by Hanoi to…I don’t know, do something Communisty when he gets into power, I guess. Sampley also formed an anti-Kerry group of Vietnam Veterans in 2004 that is often confused with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, and in fact is usually lumped in with them on lefty websites in order to discredit the actual Swift Boat Veterans led by John O’Neill. (Dean Esmay explained the difference in those groups here.)

I’m not surprised to see Sampley involved in the Obama-is-a-secret Muslim-smear; the man has an amazing talent to place-kick John Birchy conspiracy theories into the mainstream.

Too bad this is what the anonymous internet forums have become.

 

[skint]

Aside from a VP candidate that wishes to teach kids that the world was made in a week or so and similar religious nonsense, are any on the the McCain side of the fence at all concerned that Palin also considers going to war with Russia might be a good idea? This is the person who could quite easily assume the presidency.




Quote from SMH:

The most controversial was when she declared herself in favour of admitting Ukraine and Georgia to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

"Wouldn't we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia," Gibson asked.

"Perhaps so," she said. She called Russia's invasion of Georgia unacceptable and unprovoked. "What I think is that smaller, democratic countries that are invaded by a larger power is something for us to be vigilant against," she said.





For those that don't know this, Russia has these things called nuclear weapons. Whilst they may make a fun popping sound, some have found them to have some unpleasant side effects. Talk about a cot case!

 

[ZzzzDad]

Aside from a VP candidate that wishes to teach kids that the world was made in a week or so and similar religious nonsense, are any on the the McCain side of the fence at all concerned that Palin also considers going to war with Russia might be a good idea? This is the person who could quite easily assume the presidency.




Quote from SMH:

The most controversial was when she declared herself in favour of admitting Ukraine and Georgia to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

"Wouldn't we then have to go to war if Russia went into Georgia," Gibson asked.

"Perhaps so," she said. She called Russia's invasion of Georgia unacceptable and unprovoked. "What I think is that smaller, democratic countries that are invaded by a larger power is something for us to be vigilant against," she said.





For those that don't know this, Russia has these things called nuclear weapons. Whilst they may make a fun popping sound, some have found them to have some unpleasant side effects. Talk about a cot case!

As to the including Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, McCain, Obama, and Biden are for it too. Of course you leave that out, or more likely, didn't know it.

As for the creationism story - from Factcheck.org

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/sliming_palin.html

No Creationism in Schools


On Aug. 29, the Boston Globe reported that Palin was open to teaching creationism in public schools. That's true. She supports teaching creationism alongside evolution, though she has not actively pursued such a policy as governor.

In an Oct. 25, 2006, debate, when asked about teaching alternatives to evolution, Palin replied:

Palin, Oct. 25, 2006: Teach both. You know, don't be afraid of information. Healthy debate is so important and it's so valuable in our schools. I am a proponent of teaching both. And you know, I say this too as the daughter of a science teacher. Growing up with being so privileged and blessed to be given a lot of information on, on both sides of the subject – creationism and evolution. It's been a healthy foundation for me. But don't be afraid of information and let kids debate both sides.

A couple of days later, Palin amended that statement in an interview with the Anchorage Daily News, saying:

Palin, Oct. 2006: I don't think there should be a prohibition against debate if it comes up in class. It doesn't have to be part of the curriculum.

After her election, Palin let the matter drop. The Associated Press reported Sept 3: "Palin's children attend public schools and Palin has made no push to have creationism taught in them. ... It reflects a hands-off attitude toward mixing government and religion by most Alaskans." The article was headlined, "Palin has not pushed creation science as governor." It was written by Dan Joling, who reports from Anchorage and has covered Alaska for 30 years.

 

[jeflin]

I feel that I'm closer to getting that beer off 2020.

Its like stocks, once you get a pivot point, then a new trend begins. McCain before this last week needed a miracle.

I think he got it in Sarah Barracuda Palin.

gg

For the right or wrong reasons, Sarah Palin is attracting national interest while Obama is losing his lustre.

People can't get enough of Sarah Palin and that has allowed Republicans to gloss over critical issues ranging from the mortgage mess, bailouts, unemployment, Iraq war, budget deficits, etc.

Obama did himself no favors with his comment on "putting lipstick on a pig."
The tide has turned for McCain and if Obama is smart, he should refrain from personal duels but to focus on the bread and butter issues.

 

[2020hindsight]

still strange surely that Georgia (with US advisers in their number) - with a month to go before the GOP convention - decides to attack South Ossetia, where they are hated and Russia is loved - knowing full well that Russia will retaliate

and somehow ensure that Russia is painted as aggressive.

Must be hell for some of you blokes (not you jef lol) to drive around a city - what with hating reds and greens and those yellow varmits .... having to pull up at traffic lights must be the stuff nightmares are made of ..

 

[skint]

As to the including Georgia and Ukraine into NATO, McCain, Obama, and Biden are for it too. Of course you leave that out, or more likely, didn't know it.

As for the creationism story - from Factcheck.org

http://www.factcheck.org/elections-2008/sliming_palin.html

Yes, I did know that, however both McCain and Obama have been a lot more carefule in the language they used. Whilst McCain is a worry with his 'bomb, bomb Iran' mentality, both are not in favour of conflict with Russia, and consider it to be a last resort, having exhausted other avenues. If the actuaries are correct and McCain is about even money to die or step down due to health/age issues in an 8 year stint or 35% chance in a 4 year stint, Palin could easily be in the top job. When asked about the issue, she hardly broke step before raising the prospect of war as a sensible option.

I think her views on creationism were pretty clear in her initial comments, and later tempered for political expediency. With her penchant for "God on our side" rhetoric as far as the Bush doctrine goes (BTW, she didin't even know what that was) it seems to me to be a case of a religious extremist thinking and argueing in exactly the same way as other religious extremists who, no doubt, also consider themselves to have "God on their side". She's both dangerous and dopey. Still, given the peanut the US voted for in for the last two terms, nothing would surprise me.

 

[Doris]

Whoopie Goldberg asks McCain if she should be worried about becoming a slave if he wins.

... as he sidesteps Roe & Wade like a pollie.

http://abcnews.go.com/video/playerIndex?id=5789112

 

[noirua]

The McCain team look a strong act in tougher time. Aren't they the safer more certain option here?

 

[Julia]

The McCain team look a strong act in tougher time. Aren't they the safer more certain option here?

Well, sure, if you like the idea of Iran becoming the new Iraq, and a resumption of the cold war with Russia.

Just a practicality to consider, does the mighty US of A have the reserves of troops available to invade Iran and/or Russia, whilst still persisting in Iraq and Afghanistan? And what would that do to their economy?