JBH - JB Hi-Fi

[condog]

They do browngoods TV's are the worst margin in all browngoods and if they don't do whitegoods who owns Clive Anthony, better do some more research.

Please read in context...JBH focus on personal entertainment....while most other retailers have the full suite of white and brown goods.......ie: with no specific focus on personal entertainment

Regards to clive anthony - it is an insignificantly small part - I have doen my research champ.....

Fact is I cant think of one analyst, commentator or journalist whos brave or silly enough to have even cast any doubt over JBH performance.....

Take - Roger Montgomery the king of valueing businesses (way to conservative, but well if theres a bad thing about a business he will find it) only has 6 stock in his portfolio.....guess what his number 1 pick is.....JBH.....And hes a million times more qualified at selecting great fundamental businesses to invest in then any one in here....

Rather then look for some insignificant literary error which you will find plenty in my typing or some contextual expression error on my behalf.....why not add some oomph to your doubts by providing data / facts / graphs to the contrary.......for cross examination....that would really add to the intellectual grit of this conversation...perhaps you could provide some real data of JBH performance slipping in some area.....

 

[McCoy Pauley]

29% increase in net profit for the first half of 2009/10. Net profit rose to $76 million in the first six months of the financial year, up from $59 million in the corresponding period in 2008/09.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-...ls-record-half-year-profit-20100208-nlcx.html

 

[tone76]

Looks like the news of Richard Uechtritz stepping down from the top job at JBH has overridden the news of record profits: JBH has been slammed this morning (down > 6% last time I looked).

Surely Terry Smart can't be that bad an operator...?

 

[condog]

Looks like the news of Richard Uechtritz stepping down from the top job at JBH has overridden the news of record profits: JBH has been slammed this morning (down > 6% last time I looked).

Surely Terry Smart can't be that bad an operator...?

Richard has been the undisputed king for a couple of years now....so anyone was likely to dissapoint the market..... makes for good buying in my opinion.... ....think about it for a moment.... a fantastic company with 28% increased profit on an already awesome ROE and undervalued stock, just got 6% cheaper for no legitimate reason other then its handed its winning formula to a new chief....

Surely the market will realise its own stupidity in coming days...

Further Richards stayin on as a consultant and will rejoin the board in 2011

Disc- I hold, want more may sell etc....
DYOR and seek expert advice

 

[Miro]

think about it for a moment.... a fantastic company with 28% increased profit on an already awesome ROE and undervalued stock, just got 6% cheaper for no legitimate reason other then its handed its winning formula to a new chief....

Surely the market will realise its own stupidity in coming days...

JB Hi-Fi an a stunning business, no doubt about that. However, the fact is already priced in the share price. According to the latest report the return on equity is not going to be as high as predicted in the previous report, so makes sense to expect the share price to decline.

It doesn't matter whether the profit is a 30% increase or 10% decrease. You often see shares increasing based on decline in profits that are lower than expected. The share price does what it wants to do based on investors' expectations.

 

[bazuka]

Enter the Ipad and 3D TV, I can see the next few months going very well for JBH!
I bought shares back when they were 9 ish and sold recently when they got above 20c, I'm thinking it may be time to buy again.

 

[robusta]

A couple of interesting notes in the annual report :

"... In the absence of having strong investment opportunities, it is the view of the board that we should return excess cash and franking credits to shareholders. In light of the volatility of recent trading we believe it is prudent to defer any such activity until after the important Christmas season."

"...the company has migrated from a net investor of cash to a net generator of cash."

I would be interested in anyones thoughts, increased payout ratio? bonus dividend? share buyback?

 

[drlog]

From what I can see, they are planning on increasing their payout ratio in the future because they simply can't continue their high organic growth. Having said that, there is still some good growth left for JBH but it won't be as high as it was previously. The semi-good news is that shareholders will receive higher dividends. The bad news is that the growth will be lower.

 

[So_Cynical]

From what I can see, they are planning on increasing their payout ratio in the future because they simply can't continue their high organic growth. Having said that, there is still some good growth left for JBH but it won't be as high as it was previously. The semi-good news is that shareholders will receive higher dividends. The bad news is that the growth will be lower.

LOL can it be true....a growth stock that stops growing. surely growth stocks just keep on growing for ever!

 

[drlog]

I don't classify JBH as a "growth stock", I classify it as a "good business". :

 

[Tukker]

So missed its sales target by a bit and price drops 12% in a few weeks. I am on the good business boat with this fella looking for an entry point.

Watching.

 

[robusta]

So missed its sales target by a bit and price drops 12% in a few weeks. I am on the good business boat with this fella looking for an entry point.

Watching.

Could not agree more, hope JBH gets a bit cheaper so I can buy some more.

 

[ers_6]

whats everyone's thoughts on an entry point?

any technical investors that can give us your thoughts?

 

[ROE]

Could not agree more, hope JBH gets a bit cheaper so I can buy some more.

There is no denying JBH is a good business
couple of things to consider before you load up more JBH

1. Richard stood down Terry stand up, first year in the job
miss sale target... I seen plenty of these happen in other company, this may not be the first.. Infact I go as far as saying Terry can never match Richard performance from the research I do on this stocks

2. Good guys and WOW Sight & Sound backed by NAB capital start to compete heavily and expanding their business fairly aggressively make a hard case for JB to expand and get the same historic return on capital.

Good luck for those who lock and load of more

 

[takestock]

Could not agree more, hope JBH gets a bit cheaper so I can buy some more.

I bought some more,just hope that another anal yst doesn't dump on JBH like the Credit Suisse researcher did the other week.

 

[skc]

Negative spotlight on retail sector as a whole is doing no favour for the JBH share price. It's now sitting very dangerously at support. Unless the overall market goes full steam ahead (which it may do), it will probably break on the down side imo.

Next support not too far at $17, followed by $14 if it does a TRS.

I was at JB last night and there were plenty of people in the shop. But the lines were shorter than I remembered them to be a few months ago. Only waited for 2 people at the checkout line as opposed to the usual 8 or 10. Especially pour given the time of the year...

 

[So_Cynical]

Negative spotlight on retail sector as a whole is doing no favour for the JBH share price. It's now sitting very dangerously at support. Unless the overall market goes full steam ahead (which it may do), it will probably break on the down side imo.

Next support not too far at $17, followed by $14 if it does a TRS.

I was at JB last night and there were plenty of people in the shop. But the lines were shorter than I remembered them to be a few months ago. Only waited for 2 people at the checkout line as opposed to the usual 8 or 10. Especially pour given the time of the year...

JBH headed for $15 without a doubt...margins wafer thin, discretionary spending under pressure, internet (GST free) competition, 20 or so more days of Xmas spending then the reality of consumers that already have all the latest crap and more IR pressures ahead.

 

[takestock]

Yep I'm selling before my loss increases.It's been disasterous I just don't see any upside.
I 've never gone into retail stocks and this is a harsh lesson to me.

 

[Intrinsic Value]

Yep I'm selling before my loss increases.It's been disasterous I just don't see any upside.
I 've never gone into retail stocks and this is a harsh lesson to me.

I wouldn't be so hasty about dumping them just yet.

The picture is still very good for the future.

I think the new year will see a spike in their share value.

 

[drlog]

I wouldn't be so hasty about dumping them just yet.

The picture is still very good for the future.

I think the new year will see a spike in their share value.

Do you mean spike in share price or value?

I think they are undervalued right now by around 15% and if they fall below $17, I will definitely buy more. Currently, JBH is my worst performing stock but it's a quality company that is growing - no way would I dump it!

Thinking medium term (next calendar year), I expect the share price to recover upwards of $20.