JBH - JB Hi-Fi

[MRC & Co]

Good one Sack. I missed this one too, but would have been a very nice trade.

As you say, falling volume on the pullbacks, and high volume on the reversal day, sucking up the last of the sellers before printing a high close.

 

[Pigsy]

Can some explain this after market drop to me?
JBH closes today at 4:00pm at $13.87 then at 4:10pm after the adjustment the stock price closes at $13.59 with the most volume for the day of 268,000. Is this some kind of market manipulation?

 

[J Nighttrain]

JBH - J B Hi-fi

Any thoughts on this stock as it seems to have performed fairly well recently.
am unsure if I should be getting in now, or waiting due to what is happening with the markets recently - Looks like a good medium to long term stock.
( newbie trying to learn the ropes)

 

[jimmy_n13]

My valuation for this using free cash flow is only about $6. Anyone care to help me realise where i stuffed up (if i have). This is with a terminal ROE of 15%

 

[dhukka]

My valuation for this using free cash flow is only about $6. Anyone care to help me realise where i stuffed up (if i have). This is with a terminal ROE of 15%

Hi Jimmy,

I don't use free cashflow to value companies but in terms of your ROE assumption it may be a little harsh given the company's return on equity is over 40% and has shown steady improvement over the last 6 or 7 years.

 

[jimmy_n13]

Cheers for the reply mate. I ended up adjusting some weak assumptions and got a target of around $11.70 (based on FCF, RIM, a few multiples and dividends)

 

[Pigsy]

What's gone wrong with JBH? Has been on a downward spiral for the last 7 sessions .... a new record for this company. Even when the allords is up this one is down. The fundamentals of this company are a lot better than the sp suggests. Is it the Aussie dollar having an impact. Although similar companies DJS and HVN has found support and aren't being smashed. Comments anyone?

 

[Lachlan6]

It seems there should be more pain to come for another once market darling - JBH. Wave equality between the wave's (A) and (C) suggests a high probability of $5.65 being reached. The question then is can the stock find some traction at those lower levels.

 

[AS414]

I would say this stock has much more upside than the gloomy market is pricing in at the moment. The firms sells the right product for uncertain times (the software for staying at home and avoiding other temptations), and the firm is not over-everaged. There is still room for it to grow in Australia and NZ. It is a nice contrast to Harvey Norman who definitely have growth limitations domestically and a flawed internatioanlisation strategy. See more here:

http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/12/04/oh-harvey-oh-harvey/

 

[ROE]

I'm out of JB after I did scuttle butt lock in profit
this is my story.

I did a fair bit of research and found what lowest possible price you can get for a certain products..arm with those prices I went to JB and negotiate a deal.. I know they can make money on the deal maybe not at the margin they want but still a profit never the less..

They wouldn't sale and I walk away I saw two people doing the same thing and walk away...

Now in time like these you need to lower your margin and get the sale and lock in the profit ..why forgo the sale? People dont have a lot of money to throw at you for a big margin.

so that is enough infor for me to get out .. I may be wrong but better out now then a profit down grade

I'm going to try the same techniques on HVN if they do the sale.. I think JB could be a bad place to be in a recession.

 

[justiceotp]

What was the model number of the item and price you wanted to pay I'm in retail ill tell you if they should have taken it or not and if someone else does is it at a loss of margin just to lower stock levels.

 

[investorpaul]

Anyone else currently following this stock?

It hit $14 in August/September before crashing back down to $7 to $7.50 in Nov 08.

It has hit $14 again in May and currently sits at approx $12.50, were there seems to be a bit of support. There is definitely strong resistance at $14 and i dont see it breaking through that level with ease/any time soon, especially seeing as the governments cash hand outs will work there way out of the system and wallets will tighten.

For me a close below $12 will represent a shorting opportunity.

 

[rustyheela]

Course they are not going to make a deal if you haggle cause probably means you want it near cost price taking into account A$$ fluctuation / rallying. if you walked away from JB HIFI then HVN wont be cheaper. By it on the net and save 10 -20 %!!

P.S Kevvy rudds paying for a portion of it!!

 

[johannlo]

ROE are you saying that your opinion of whether to buy, hold or sell this stock is based on your single poor experience of trying to do one of those price matching deals? i.e. you received poor service from retail staff at a single location, on the kind of deal that EVERY company tries to weasle out of.

No mention of technicals, or fundamental analysis, just you got poor service on one occasion so thus the company is stuffed?

Also isn't your logic a bit upside down - surely other plausible explanations are
- they have so much money they don't need to scrap for every last low margin transaction
- you lucked upon crappy retail staff (what are the chances?)
- staff are held to ironclad 'no sales below X% markup' rule, believe it or not its quite common practice in retail industry.

let alone any kind of attempt to correlate this SINGLE statistical occurence to any form of causation (i.e. technical analysis, fundamentals analysis, heck wider reading of retail market sentiment).

Sorry not trying to be aggressive but it really does come across as 'i've had one bad experience so I'm going to rubbish this stock'. I'm pretty sure that you could duplicate that experience amongst a heck of a lot of other companies, of which some could be very good buys from either a trading or fundamentals point of view.

For what its worth I wouldn't enter into this stock given this sector (retail), at this price and this stage of economic uncertainty.

 

[rustyheela]

from a technical point of view i bought in the other week when support at @.$12.02 held ( pretty solid line ) but as usual running pretty tight stop if volatility or more downside is an issue. I have been watching this stock for a bit and its quite predictable at this point in time, having said that i will look foolish by end of week!!! guess from a T.A perspective you can only go by what the chart in front of u is saying !!!

 

[voyz]

does anyone think jb will break through the $14 mark considering yesterdays great performance?
or is it retesting the highest high twice for no reason?

 

[deedeeramone]

I went to buy a video camera on the weekend. I started my search in JB Hi-Fi (JBH) because I've always found the staff to be knowledgeable and have good deals. The camera I want was listed at $398 and the sales assistant said they could do it for $367. He was not at all knowledgeable or helpful.

I got out of there and ended up buying the identical camera up the road at Harvey Norman (HVN) for $333. This included a bonus carry bag and battery. The girl there was very helpful and did know her stuff.

Certainly this could be a one-off experience and I'm cautious about reading too much into it.

But for the first time in 7 years I'm feeling bearish about JBH.

Anyone have any other similar (or contrasting) experiences they can share?

 

[skc]

I went to buy a video camera on the weekend. I started my search in JB Hi-Fi (JBH) because I've always found the staff to be knowledgeable and have good deals. The camera I want was listed at $398 and the sales assistant said they could do it for $367. He was not at all knowledgeable or helpful.

I got out of there and ended up buying the identical camera up the road at Harvey Norman (HVN) for $333. This included a bonus carry bag and battery. The girl there was very helpful and did know her stuff.

Certainly this could be a one-off experience and I'm cautious about reading too much into it.

But for the first time in 7 years I'm feeling bearish about JBH.

Anyone have any other similar (or contrasting) experiences they can share?

Walking the mall is one of Buffet's favourite research tool.

I shopped for a laptop last year (thanks K Rudd for his investment tax benefits) and ended up buying one from Harvey Norman to my great surprise.

JB didn't carry the model I was after, which was one of the best sellers in Asia. Harvey was able to offer a deal with some software and warranty. The staff in JB were OK, but the guy in Harvey was amazingly helpful. That was the most surprising aspect of it.

Having said that, the staff at the homeware department of Harvey are pretty average to say the least. And if I walked away with a great deal, chances are their margins just got smaller... so think twice before hitting that trade button.

 

[justiceotp]

I'm a retailer and that is currently the way the market is everyone is just undercutting everyone at the expense of profit. What is the model of the Camera you bought just so I can get an idea of the profit left in the sale if any.
Also did you tell the Harvey person the price you where offered at JB as each retailer will always undercut if they know the price. The other thing you need to question is did you sales person just give away more margin than required if they do that constantly is that good for the bottom line?

 

[deedeeramone]

JVC Everio SD Card Video Camera

Silly old aussiestockforums won't let me post a link so you'll have to copy-n-paste yourselves:

harveynorman.com.au/product/1255509273838/jvc-everio-s-video-camera

I told the JBH guy the price at HVN and he said they couldn't match it.

I now have two bearish thoughts about JBH that I can't shake:

1. JBH no longer felt like the "cool / underground" place to shop. For the first time it felt like any other electronics retailer. My assistant was just trying to close the deal asap.
2. Where is JBH's future growth going to come from? Australia's pretty well covered now. NZ can't add much.