Japan's turn

[prgudula]

http://www.24dash.com/news/communit...00-times-more-powerful-than-New-Zealand-quake

and what is it was reported in Japan
http://tenki.jp/earthquake/detail-3611.html

 

[trainspotter]

"But the financial markets also need to consider the economic costs and the implications of the disaster for the public finances. These could be considerable."

Japan is burdened by the industrialised world's biggest debt, which runs close to 200 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/8998319/japan-earthquake-risks-fiscal-crisis/

 

[Smurf1976]

its about 24 hour in terms of time left for a fix, and the quicker the better

Chernobyl type outcome is possible, if no power is restored to the plant and they cannot get the plant to be repaired and get some function with the coolant

An unfortunate but timely reminder that no matter what anyone may claim, NOTHING man does is totally immune from catastrophic failure. NOTHING.

If we have enough nuclear plants, aeroplanes, trains, buses, industrial plants or whatever then sooner or later one of them will be involved in a disaster. That's life and something we must accept if we choose to have these things. You are not 100% safe on a plane, however small the risk might be, and there is no such thing as a 100% safe nuclear plant either.

 

[DB008]

Gee fella, depends on who schooled you hey?

Bingo. (I wasn't having a go at you Wysiwyg)
I was taught in Geography that the correct terminology was Tsunami and not tidal wave as tidal waves are usually generated from the tide, in this case, it wasn't.

tsu·na·mi
   /tsʊˈnɑmi/ Show Spelled[tsoo-nah-mee] Show IPA
–noun
an unusually large sea wave produced by a seaquake or undersea volcanic eruption.
Use Tsunami in a Sentence
See images of Tsunami
Search Tsunami on the Web
Also called seismic sea wave.

Origin:
1905–10; < Japanese, equivalent to tsu harbor (earlier tu ) + nami wave

tidal wave
 
–noun
1.
(not in technical use) a large, destructive ocean wave, produced by a seaquake, hurricane, or strong wind. Compare tsunami.
2.
either of the two great wavelike swellings of the ocean surface that move around the earth on opposite sides and give rise to tide, caused by the attraction of the moon and sun.
3.
any widespread or powerful movement, opinion, or tendency: a tidal wave of public indignation.
Use tidal wave in a Sentence
See images of tidal wave
Search tidal wave on the Web
Origin:
1820–30

Either which way, what has happened has had a devastating impact on Japan. I was watching the news last night (live broadcast) and my jaw dropped.

 

[Solly]

Breaking: reports out of Japan say quake-hit nuclear power plant may be experiencing nuclear meltdown.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/#entry-6a00e0097e4e688833014e86a968ec970d

 

[IFocus]

Breaking: reports out of Japan say quake-hit nuclear power plant may be experiencing nuclear meltdown.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan-quake-2011/#entry-6a00e0097e4e688833014e86a968ec970d

Not good if true the plant work force will be getting an extreme dose.

 

[Solly]

Nuclear safety panel says meltdown possible.

'No Chernobyl possible'

However, Naoto Sekimura, a professor at the University of Tokyo, said a major radioactive disaster was unlikely.

"No Chernobyl is possible at a light water reactor. Loss of coolant means a temperature rise, but it also will stop the
reaction," he said.

"Even in the worst-case scenario, that would mean some radioactive leakage and equipment damage, but not an explosion. If venting is done carefully, there will be little leakage. Certainly not beyond the 3 km radius

http://english.aljazeera.net/news/asia-pacific/2011/03/20113124353222667.html

 

[IFocus]

"But the financial markets also need to consider the economic costs and the implications of the disaster for the public finances. These could be considerable."

Japan is burdened by the industrialised world's biggest debt, which runs close to 200 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/world/8998319/japan-earthquake-risks-fiscal-crisis/

Japans debt is extreme and there is no coming back with out extreme austere measures. Although they have managed to borrow from local savings at low interest rates for a long time that option is now running out an external financing will have to be used

John Mauldins description of Japans government debt as a bug in search of a windscreen is very much on the money.

Some time in the next 5 to 20 years there will be a splat.............is this the event that could bring the time frame forward who knows.

 

[skyQuake]

Chernobyl type outcome is possible, if no power is restored to the plant and they cannot get the plant to be repaired and get some function with the coolant

fingers crossed here for the japanese, the disaster of the ongoing earthquakes is enough, but the attention to the fukushima nuclear power plant is paramount.

Chernobyl style meltdown highly unlikely. Reactor design was faulty: positive void coeff at low power levels (like now) caused it to go into a positive feedback loop.
That technology has been long replaced - even if no-one attends the power station for the next few days, damage would be limited to leakages rather than explosions.

Ummmm ........ didn't Weather Bill predict this with a game of cards?

I went searching for the thread but could not find it?

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=17091

Couple of months and a few thousand kilometers off. Not bad in my books

 

[Whiskers]

Tsunami, not "tidal wave".

Gee fella, depends on who schooled you hey?

Bingo. (I wasn't having a go at you Wysiwyg)
I was taught in Geography that the correct terminology was Tsunami and not tidal wave as tidal waves are usually generated from the tide, in this case, it wasn't.

I understand it's a bit of an idiosyncrasy by meteorologists, geologists etc to try to distinguish between waves from the influence of the moon (tides) and waves caused by other influences.

But apparently even tsunami isn't quite strictly correct as it is derived from Japanese meaning a harbor wave.

 

[Wysiwyg]

That technology has been long replaced - even if no-one attends the power station for the next few days, damage would be limited to leakages rather than explosions.

This was on the news tonight.

Explosion at quake-hit nuclear plant

Updated 11 minutes ago

The nuclear plant's exterior walls are reportedly gone and only the skeleton structure remains

Several workers have been injured in an explosion at the quake-hit Fukushima No 1 nuclear power plant in Japan's north, according to local media reports.

The explosion was heard at 3:36pm (local time) following a series of large tremors at the site.

According to public broadcaster NHK, the plant's exterior walls are gone and only the skeleton structure remains.

Footage on Japanese television shows white smoke billowing from the plant.

 

[DB008]

BBC - Massive explosion at Japan nuclear power plant

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12721498

 

[drsmith]

The video footage kinda speaks for itself. It looks like one of the four cube buildings at the reactor site has been blown to bits.

 

[Smurf1976]

Chernobyl style meltdown highly unlikely. Reactor design was faulty: positive void coeff at low power levels (like now) caused it to go into a positive feedback loop.
That technology has been long replaced - even if no-one attends the power station for the next few days, damage would be limited to leakages rather than explosions.

According to local news (Australia) and also the BBC, there has already been a rather large explosion at the plant.

What happens now if there is another earthquake with the plant already in the condition it is in? What if the earthquake had been directly under the plant itself?

Nuclear power is not totally safe, nor is anything else. Someday, the worst case scenario will likely happen just as all sorts of other "totally safe" things will occasionally go wrong.

On a practical note, regardless of what happens now I wouldn't want to be in the business of selling nuclear reactors that's for sure. If the Japanese can't build these things to be earthquake proof then it's going to be rather hard to argue that anyone else could or would. The Japanese aren't exactly backward when it comes to engineering.

Short term, taking these reactors off-line (and I'm guessing that we're talking about a major shut down here of these plants and probably several others too) will increase demand for fuel oil (well, it will assuming they've still got something left in Japan to actually use electricity...). Oil is the main marginal source of electricity in Japan, with nuclear, coal and gas power plants generally running 24/7 with little spare capacity to make up for the loss of these reactors. That leaves the oil-fired plants, of which Japan has many that are seldom used, to make up the shortfall.

As a very rough indication, for each 1000 MW of nuclear taken off line, expect to see 35,000 - 40,000 barrels per day of fuel oil used to make up for the loss. If fuel oil isn't available then it is technically quite possible to just burn raw crude oil in the power stations instead.

Note: I'm talking about a relocation of production to existing oil-fired plants that are seldom used (the nuclear, coal and gas plants largely replaced them) and not converting the damaged nuclear plants to fossil fuel. These oil-fired plants are generally fairly old but they can be made to work assuming the earthquake hasn't destroyed them. Japan does, of course, have far more serious problems than power generation right now - I'm just commenting here due to the effect on the oil markets etc given that this is an investment forum.

 

[Smurf1976]

The video footage kinda speaks for itself. It looks like one of the four cube buildings at the reactor site has been blown to bits.

Without knowning the technical details of the plant in question, that building looks like a reactor to me.

The rest of the equipment at a nuclear plant is much the same as in a coal-fired plant and is housed in relatively low hall-like buildings (turbines and alternators) plus some fairly conventional workshops, offices etc and a switchyard which is normally outside and looks much like any sub-station.

The big structures at power plants are the boilers (regardless of fuel source - coal, oil, nuclear reactor are all pretty big) and cooling towers (needed only where sea water is not available so not used at all plants). The only other big things are oil tanks, but they aren't needed at a nuclear plant. So I'd speculate that the building shown in the video, whilst not clear (at least not on my computer...), probably was a reactor.

 

[drsmith]

Referring to the image below, I'd say it was the right most square building.

 

[Smurf1976]

Referring to the image below, I'd say it was the right most square building.

Looking at that plant, what you have is the long hall-like buildings in the foreground which house the turbines and alternators. Behind that there are 4 square reactor buildings. Overall, it's a pretty normal power plant layout.

Looks like we have a nuclear reactor explosion here... If a reactor really has blown up, and that is what the video seems to show, then that's not a good situation...

 

[drsmith]

Looks like we have a nuclear reactor explosion here... If a reactor really has blown up, and that is what the video seems to show, then that's not a good situation...

The video of the plant at the start of the ABC news (ABC 24 7pm local Perth) shows the remains of the building.

A skeletal structure appears largely intact, however, the walls and roof are gone. The image is too distant to see any detail inside.

 

[skyQuake]

Oh snap

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12721498

You can actually see the steam explosion before the rest of the rubble and debris. So thats the bio dome gone.

Still skeptical of fission materials released into the atmosphere as plant design is completely different though...

 

[DB008]

From Reuters

WRAPUP 12-Radiation leaking from Japan's quake-hit nuclear plant

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/12/japan-quake-idUSL3E7EC07M20110312