Is this the crash coming right at us?
- Thread starter Buffettology
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My portfolio actually went up too, so I am very impressed that on such a horrid week to walk away in a better position.
The correction (not crash) is almost over...1 more day in the red, and then we are off to reach new highs over coming months.
The correction (not crash) is almost over...1 more day in the red, and then we are off to reach new highs over coming months.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Aren't corporate profits still good?
Isn't the world still expected to have excellent GDP growth?
Isn't China, India and the rest of Asia's demand for raw commodities still there?
If anything this shake up has only helped the resources sector, why?
Well fundamentally its the banks/lenders etc that should feel the brunt of this as the concerns are to do with subprime woes and the ability to do deals, raise debt etc, so if I were an Insto I'd be cashing out of these sectors and looking at the sector whose fundamentals haven't changed since last week ...........
You know the one which is struggling to keep up with demand, the one which is experiencing set back after setback in bringing production online
But then thats just me
Agree with you YT. Although small caps will find it harder to raise new capital. This is definitely the time to get into mid/ large cap materials with solid cash flows.
I've been saying for months this is the time to be getting out of financials, because this is without doubt the top of their long term cycle. But what really bugs me, is that this correction has seen bigger drops in materials than anything else. Now, maybe I'm retarded, but what the hell does the sub-prime mortgage disaster have to do with my QGC for instance?
Plus a dive in the AUD is even better for aussie resources. At some point people will realise this, and my strategy of looking at domestic (in demand) material stocks will prove to be a good one I am sure.The irony is, there is a flight to cash. The carry trades are being unwound. This is doubly bad for gold, and as such, I have all but exited my gold positions.
I think this whole thing is overdone though. Interest rates are still low, corporate debt is good, and the defaults are not (as yet) in important sectors. In a couple of weeks people will realise profits are still good and in many stocks, dividends are still grouse.
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The poor old sub-prime sector is getting all the bad press and blame when in fact it is but a small portion of the problem, in fact a victim of a much larger structural problem in the US. What is telling is that while the sub-primes account for some 20% of loans, nearly all of the listed home builders are reporting massive losses. This can't be attributable to sub-primes alone. As the loan 'honeymoon' periods slowly roll over to higher rates this is then moving along & up the loan class categories to affect more and more of the consuming classes. This isn't over for a while yet. Keep an eye on home builders going bust & consumer credit (cards?)going through the roof for danger signs?
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Your portfolio went up? But on the 21st ie last Saturday you posted
I am out of the market for a few days, so I wouldn't mind a correction, I hope that you could all help me out with my request...It only takes a slight global sell down
So when did you re-buy your portfolio?
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Oh...just read this on Hotcopper to back up STC that he sold:
Subject:re: blood and guts all over the floor...Stock Code:ASX - ASX LIMITEDPosted:28/07/07 16:35Hotcopper Radio:ASX on BoardRoom RadioPosted By:krisbarry1Views:503Post #:184021 (In Reply to msg #184016 from pecora)Sentiment:BuyIP:124.177.xxx.xxxVoluntary Disclosure:No Stock HeldI am fully is cash and have been for just over a week, I will re-invest in the market on Monday.
I am so glad I was out of the market and have saved myeslf from at least a 320 point fall...so I am well ahead of many investors...good luck and happy buying Monday!WGP - drilling 10 wells in Kentucky USA, as we speak, searching for gushing oil
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haha, mines up too mostly thanks to RMI and CUL. Thanks YT.
I think tomorrow may be a slaughterhouse but hopefully things will recover soon. I've divested mostly out of the US, with CEMEX helping me along by prying RIN out of my hands. I hope its a thorn in their sides.
I think tomorrow may be a slaughterhouse but hopefully things will recover soon. I've divested mostly out of the US, with CEMEX helping me along by prying RIN out of my hands. I hope its a thorn in their sides.
I agree, too. Not just QGC, what is that to do with Foster's (FGL)? People drink a lot in happy times and even more in depressed times. :bier:I've been saying for months this is the time to be getting out of financials, because this is without doubt the top of their long term cycle. But what really bugs me, is that this correction has seen bigger drops in materials than anything else. Now, maybe I'm retarded, but what the hell does the sub-prime mortgage disaster have to do with my QGC for instance?
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A panic, by its very definition, is irrational. So, I don't think it really matters what sector you are holding. A sell off will hit all sectors. Some more than others, but it will affect all sectors in a negative manner.
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My superannuation is fully out of the market (cash) - due to switching funds but my personal share portfolio is in WGP, so am I am telling the truth you dill!
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Nope...I still don't belive a word you say. :screwy:
What do you expect?
Back on topic...best of luck with the crash. Hope you double your $475
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A couple of interesting articles
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html
25 July
A bright outlook for commodities
By Walter T Molano
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IG17Df02.html
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Front_Page.html
25 July
A bright outlook for commodities
By Walter T Molano
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/IG17Df02.html
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Nope...I still don't belive a word you say. :screwy:
What do you expect?
Back on topic...best of luck with the crash. Hope you double your $475
LOL...believe what you want to believe...after all this is cyberworld where anything goes....ahh what the heck I am a trillionaire then...how do like them apples.
Ohh I just told a big fat lie, no I sleep in the parklands on a park bench with 5 cents to my name...now that is more like it
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See below
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So your the one stole my laptop with wireless, My park bench with a chain on it and the 5 cents i glued to the benchLOL...believe what you want to believe...after all this is cyberworld where anything goes....ahh what the heck I am a trillionaire then...how do like them apples.
Ohh I just told a big fat lie, no I sleep in the parklands on a park bench with 5 cents to my name...now that is more like it
As for the crash I'll be here :hide: with money on the table
Check them cahounies (not sure of spelling but suppose to be apples that Hang from my tree heh heh lol)
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I used to try and think why a correction may be coming, but the market is always irrational. Though, it was obvious the bull market was in its third and final phase, and that a correction was well and truly on the way. We now see it, and after today, just how low can it go? I went bargain hunting yesterday, after the US rose, however I did not expect what happened today. Luckily Im still about 40% cash, so I will wait and see what happens, and grab some further bargains should this fall continue. Currently I beleive SDG is a decent price.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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I have held and I see a lot of selling.A sell to me at present would mean less capital to manage for the rest of the financial year.I really don`t see the point of selling at a loss unless you score the el cheapo entry price somewhere else.Nothing is more infuriating than selling at the bottom of the decline but we all do it at some stage.
Price targets I'd be happy with if I was looking to buy.
BHP $25, RIO $68, OXR $2.60, ZFX at $15.00, WPL $35
Geeze I would back the truck up at those prices....
If the price of Oil, and base metals fall sharply, this is where we are heading.
Can I see it happening. You never say never.... if prices got to those levels I would be very surprised considering the forward looking PE ratios.
The correction will last longer than expected, just like the rises went further than we thought.
All in all, there is no timing the market perfectly, so if you can buy along a the time line at value, I think that is the best method if your investing a lot of money.
Averaging out your entry points.
NAB at 400 $37
NAB at 600 $34
NAB aat 400 $36
On a 5 year chart this is just a minor blip.
BHP $25, RIO $68, OXR $2.60, ZFX at $15.00, WPL $35
Geeze I would back the truck up at those prices....
If the price of Oil, and base metals fall sharply, this is where we are heading.
Can I see it happening. You never say never.... if prices got to those levels I would be very surprised considering the forward looking PE ratios.
The correction will last longer than expected, just like the rises went further than we thought.
All in all, there is no timing the market perfectly, so if you can buy along a the time line at value, I think that is the best method if your investing a lot of money.
Averaging out your entry points.
NAB at 400 $37
NAB at 600 $34
NAB aat 400 $36
On a 5 year chart this is just a minor blip.
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2 questions...any takers with crystal balls?:
1. If the fed cuts interest rates next week, will this be enough to reduce volatility in the markets?
2. At what point will Australian commodity exploration stocks 'bottom' out?....surely when the market cap is less than the balance sheet?
:1. If the fed cuts interest rates next week, will this be enough to reduce volatility in the markets?
2. At what point will Australian commodity exploration stocks 'bottom' out?....surely when the market cap is less than the balance sheet?
2 questions...any takers with crystal balls?
1. If the fed cuts interest rates next week, will this be enough to reduce volatility in the markets?
2. At what point will Australian commodity exploration stocks 'bottom' out?....surely when the market cap is less than the balance sheet?
Umm i'll have a go with no.1.
I agree with you and think volatility will be reduced if Fed cuts rates, so instead of having large swings, it'll just be one-way traffic -- South
