Is it Possible to pick Bottoms or Tops - consistently?

[CanOz]

I know of 1 person that seems to be able to call certain stocks (at least short term) with alarming skill

View attachment 56678View attachment 56679View attachment 56680View attachment 56681

Mad skillz

Cool...who is it?

 

[Valued]

Any method to pick tops and bottoms consistently won't be on the sole basis of moving averages or Fib levels. If anything, these can only be used to confirm the original analysis. You need a way to identify support/resistance levels. I just don't think MA and fib levels are the best for this. If anything, the Gann square is better than fib levels anyway (but they basically do the same thing). One good way to identify support/resistance levels is taking off all your indicators, getting some candlesticks, zooming out to a weekly time frame and just look with your eyes. People tend to forget they have eyes sometimes.

 

[craft]

Cant be done!!!

Note the time stamp.

Click To Expand.

View attachment 56686

Note the Time Stamp.

Click To Expand

View attachment 56687

A drink in that as well.

My intention was to work through what I believe to be important characteristics in identification
but as usual the poodle factor have just continued barking.

To me a prudent person considering an internet post would accept the second time stamp because it corresponds roughly with the post time - though it was not the low.

But a prudent person could also wonder from a series of how many snap shots was the first time stamped chart taken considering it was posted three hours later.


Giving you the benefit of the doubt - you just need to provide a statistical sample size to prove 'consistency'. preferably posted a lot closer to the time stamp. Looking at other threads there is no consistency displayed.


yap yap yap.

 

[skyQuake]

Cool...who is it?

Our very own Alvin purple

 

[skc]

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=736&p=808543&viewfull=1#post808543

CBA
Theres a drink in that.
$77-72 and now a lower low.

A drink in that as well.

My intention was to work through what I believe to be important characteristics in identification
but as usual the poodle factor have just continued barking.

Tech, the key part of the debate here is surely "consistent". Anyone can come up with examples where they picked the bottom or top one time or another. So what is your definition of consistent? And what do you think is your performance on being consistent over time?

P.S. It's not very nice to call people poodle when people are offering different opinion.

Giving you the benefit of the doubt - you just need to provide a statistical sample size to prove 'consistency'. preferably posted a lot closer to the time stamp. Looking at other threads there is no consistency displayed.

yap yap yap.

In line with Craft's comment, if you come up with some definitions around the question, would you like to make say 20-30 calls on any market to prove one way or the other? Obivously you will need to make the calls either ahead or in real time to show that you've picked the top/bottom. And you'd need to define the timeframe of your top/bottom (and hopefully the timeframe is <2 weeks so no one is holding their neck out for verification over months).

I know 20-30 calls is probably not statistically significant, but it's probably a lot of effort and your record of sustaining efforts is not consistent.

Here's my post showing how I defined picked, top and bottom and consistently. Feel free to alter them as required if you do choose to embark on this exercise. I am sure many are eager to see you show that it can be done.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/f...t=27977&page=3&p=812273&viewfull=1#post812273

Our very own Alvin purple

He's a legend in many ways.

 

[Valued]

It sounds onerous for anyone to prove they can consistently pick tops and bottoms just to prove it to people on a forum though. If Tech could do it, why should he spend a lot of time posting examples on the internet? He isn't going to tell you how to do it, at least not specifically, so it's just going to be pictures of charts. Further, even if he did post 20 - 30 examples, someone could accuse him of making hundreds of trades and cherry picking the ones he got right. The only way to prove he can is to explain how to do it, and even then it wont be back testable.

If Tech uses VSA indicators, he won't be allowed to explain them either. I am not saying VSA is the answer, it's just an example. VSA has too many signals and is an overly complicated way to look at supply and demand in my opinion, but some of the signals may be useful in identifying tops and bottoms(as an indicator, not a specific buy and sell signal). You can do the same without the software, but it might be hard to know what to look for. There are other writers on the subject of volume though, not just Tom Williams' VSA.

 

[tech/a]

skc

Thanks for your considered responses.

Firstly people rush to conclusions (Poodles) that this and threads like them are designed by the Duck to highlight superior trading skills.

I've studied a lot of guys ---Williams Tom and Larry / Todd Kruger / Proctor / Greenblatt / Poser / Radge / Steinberg--on and on.

Technically I think it important to be able to identify Price characteristics that indicate a top or bottom is close.
What does Price/Range/Volume do. At a high/low point---is that consolidation that is appearing showing signs of a continuation or a breakdown? Is price action indicating a blow off with a quick retracement about to happen? (Is this climatic or Impulse)
Is this breakout likely to continue? (Top or bottom fails). Is this "V" bottom a bottom or continuation

There are clear technical tools which give us the opportunity to listen to and observe what the price action/range/volume/tests are telling us. It can give us very good insight and place us in the position of lowest risk--highest reward.----in my experience consistently. These are tools I believe every trader in every timeframe needs to become proficient in. regardless of wether your trading from them or not. If you had these skills 2008 would not have caused pain.--you would have been out of the market.

And what do you think is your performance on being consistent over time?

I don't know ---but I do know that if I adhere to the principals ---Others have taught me through their experience----My reward to risk is increased dramatically.

BUT--You have to BE THERE WHEN IT HAPPENS.

Having this ability and not being at the point of decision renders it useless.

Not so much of a problem for Weekly or Daily traders but for R/T traders--Futs etc in lower timeframes you just have to be there

but it's probably a lot of effort and your record of sustaining efforts is not consistent.

Two things.
Time---I cant find enough.
Inclination---When the poodles start biting the ankles the enthusiasm to dedicate precious time to feed the poodles fodder--- GOES.

Look I don't mind good debate.

But present DEBATE. Present a CASE to support your view.
Don't just tell me I'm a DUCK HEAD!

Words to the effect------- that your an ignorant puff pigeon looking for self gratification---what---you think your the greatest trader that ever walked the earth---aren't catalysts to further discussion--charts---notations---the motivation just evaporates.

My view is Fine its of no benefit to anyone--no interest-- I'm A Duckhead---so no further input.

Hence the record.

 

[beachlife]

So here's what happened. It turned out that the top, double top and resistance werent significant at all and coffee took off in the other direction. How rude of it. Had I been so set on it being a top that I had 'picked' I would probably have started self talk about market makers and their robots running stops and all that nonesense, and done more damage by shorting on the pullback of the bar that broke them, and probably the next one. Lucky for me I am happy to just follow the MA and come out the other end in the black. Of course we might be looking at another top forming, but by the time it confirms, it will be well and truely a hindsight call.



As for super trader status, CBA hasnt triggered, neither have any of my stops. If price behaves llike it did in mid Dec it could be days before the bottom is confirmed (or dismissed). Stuck at poodle status I guess. Did anyone attempt to go long on what would have looked like a confirmed bottom on 20/21 Jan or 28/29 Jan?

My final 2c on picking/trading tops and bottoms, even if Tech/A can prove that he has found a way to do it day in day out, forget it, just do your best to take a chunk from the bit inbetween the tops and bottoms.

 

[beachlife]

skc

Thanks for your considered responses.

Firstly people rush to conclusions (Poodles) that this and threads like them are designed by the Duck to highlight superior trading skills.
.

So here is exactly what you asked of me once.

Again the example is shown in hind site.
If your so sure this works as perfectly as hind site
Put up 5 trades.AS IT HAPPENS WITH COMMENTARY

All I did is ask you to meet the standards you set for me (and others), and you take you bat and ball and storm off like a 3 year old.

 

[skc]

I've studied a lot of guys ---Williams Tom and Larry / Todd Kruger / Proctor / Greenblatt / Poser / Radge / Steinberg--on and on.

Technically I think it important to be able to identify Price characteristics that indicate a top or bottom is close.
What does Price/Range/Volume do. At a high/low point---is that consolidation that is appearing showing signs of a continuation or a breakdown? Is price action indicating a blow off with a quick retracement about to happen? (Is this climatic or Impulse)
Is this breakout likely to continue? (Top or bottom fails). Is this "V" bottom a bottom or continuation

There are clear technical tools which give us the opportunity to listen to and observe what the price action/range/volume/tests are telling us. It can give us very good insight and place us in the position of lowest risk--highest reward.----in my experience consistently.

You are mixing two different concepts. What you are describing here is using whatever method you use to identify favourable reward/risk opportunities to make profit consistently. What you are NOT doing is picking tops and bottoms consistently.

But present DEBATE. Present a CASE to support your view.
Don't just tell me I'm a DUCK HEAD!

The post by Beachlife seems pretty spot on. You can't nominate one example where you picked a top (evidently you didn't, although you also didn't specific timeframe) as proof to show that you can pick tops and bottoms consistently.

 

[Trembling Hand]

I've been having tech issues this morning so been throwing a few for scalps while the team fix it.

Is this picking tops and bums?

 

[CanOz]

lol....a 30 second chart on the HSI

 

[tech/a]

So here is exactly what you asked of me once.

Again the example is shown in hind site.
If your so sure this works as perfectly as hind site
Put up 5 trades.AS IT HAPPENS WITH COMMENTARY

All I did is ask you to meet the standards you set for me (and others), and you take you bat and ball and storm off like a 3 year old.

All your interested in is Proof.
I'm happy to give it.
Doubt you've seen me back down from any challenge.

What you are missing is.

Technically I think it important to be able to identify Price characteristics that indicate a top or bottom is close.
What does Price/Range/Volume do. At a high/low point---is that consolidation that is appearing showing signs of a continuation or a breakdown? Is price action indicating a blow off with a quick retracement about to happen? (Is this climatic or Impulse)
Is this breakout likely to continue? (Top or bottom fails). Is this "V" bottom a bottom or continuation

There are clear technical tools which give us the opportunity to listen to and observe what the price action/range/volume/tests are telling us. It can give us very good insight and place us in the position of lowest risk--highest reward.----in my experience consistently

You are mixing two different concepts. What you are describing here is using whatever method you use to identify favourable reward/risk opportunities to make profit consistently. What you are NOT doing is picking tops and bottoms consistently

How can you say that.
I've presented 2 hindsight examples---one real-time---and I'm happy to do more

Will they be the tops of Tops or the Bottoms of bottoms---Short term no---but they will be tradeable for good profit without massive Risk.
As I see longer term ones Ill post them as well but we could be a few Months for you guys to call it definitive and proven.

The post by Beachlife seems pretty spot on. You can't nominate one example where you picked a top (evidently you didn't, although you also didn't specific timeframe) as proof to show that you can pick tops and bottoms consistently.

Ah I see Top or bottom picking is to be exact.

Wont happen totally agree.

But the accuracy is enough to make a dramatic difference to R/R.
Within a half a dozen ticks is in my view pretty damned good.
The ability to avoid a short in a consolidation and buy the bottom area of that consolidation before it breaks out to the top---is also a good skill to have and also in the group (My group) of picking tops and bottoms ---and Vice versa (Shorts).

But hey if I'm full of DUCK ****E fine Ill cease once again.

 

[tech/a]

I've been having tech issues this morning so been throwing a few for scalps while the team fix it.

Is this picking tops and bums?

View attachment 56699

YES

 

[MichaelD]

Here's some interesting charts which unfolded in real time earlier today.

Could this be a top?



How about this?



Surely not this?



Well that was a surprise!

The whole chart. The market is currently deciding whether the second last candle is a reversal or not.




The point I would make here is that top picking would have been spectacularly unsuccessful with this particular move.

 

[Valued]

Michael D that's assuming we would be picking tops based on a single shooting star candle formation. The volume is not on the chart. I don't trade this low of a time frame so don't hold me to this, but I am guessing that the volume on that bar was very heavy? There is no way to tell if that bar shows strength or weakness based on the information on your chart alone. Since I trade EOD I would be spending a lot longer analyzing the left (the hard right edge is a little overrated, sorry Tech).

 

[Valued]

I can't edit the above post since it's been too long.

Ok let's try picking a bottom. Target price is around 1780. Keep in mind I shorted before the large move down, covered at 1746 and have now stopped and reversed. I am going to look stupid if I am not right though

7/2/2014 0:51 Order US 500 Cash (A$1 Contract) - 1750.18 (this is entry) 1737 N (this is stop) - Position opened: xxxxxxxxx

If this is not in profit after this session coming, I was wrong and this was not a bottom. Keep in mind this is a daily bottom pick and it's only intended to be held for a short time, likely to be closed out Friday night.. so two sessions holding time. Risks of this position are that this bottom pick is not in a previous support zone. Old support was around 1710. This has fell short of that, so it's not ideal but at the same time, demand looks to be overcoming supply. A more conservative approach would be to wait for this close and enter after considering the information provided in the current session. However, given that I expect the market to rally quickly to test prior support, I don't want to lose the majority of the up move and then be priced out of entering again.

This is a CFD. IG will send me a statement tomorrow but considering I am calling it before session open, hopefully that's proof enough regardless if I have money on it (but I do have my own money on it). If I am wrong, let's just chalk it up as the 40% of the time I can be expected to lose under SKCs rules lol.

 

[MichaelD]

The volume is not on the chart.

I don't have the luxury of volume or depth of market as this is a CFD chart. I work solely on price action.

 

[Valued]

I don't have the luxury of volume or depth of market as this is a CFD chart. I work solely on price action.

Yea, since I trade EOD I just get my data from yahoo. I tried to look into getting intraday indices data and it's too much of a pain. It would be useful to go down into hourly charts but you can sort of fumble around online with yahoo's terrible charts to get a general idea. I tried using esignal on demand on their free trial but it only gives you intraday tick data, even on historical sessions even with the extended intraday data add on and the daily volume won't even work. I am going to cancel my free trial.

 

[DrapSnagon]

Here's some interesting charts which unfolded in real time earlier today.

{Selectively Snipped}

• Could this be a top?
• How about this?
• Surely not this?
• Well that was a surprise!

The point I would make here is that top picking would have been spectacularly unsuccessful with this particular move.

Guys ....

Please believe me when I say I AM NOT trying to dive in and out of this thread randomly, offering pearls of unsolicited wisdom from on high. Nor am I trying to be patronising. Also, I make no claim to understanding anything about OTC Index CFDs, so forgive me if what I'm about to say makes no sense. I'm assuming your CFD tracks the physical index rather than the SPI - is that true?

BUT ....

(There's always a "but", isn't there?)

If what I'm reading from above is right, there's a very simple way to "pick tops and bottoms" intraday in the context of these posts. it is to open a realtime chart of the XJO and the SPI (or your choice of CFD proxy) side-by-side on your screen, and trade only when the numbers cross (ie:- the premium or discount of the futures to the physical index approaches zero).

The foundation of the SPI is that it should lead the physical index. In the example above, the futures traded almost all session today (now yesterday) at a premium to the physical, which indicated that the physical was likely to continue rising. As it did.

The people who are capable of moving the ASX will always stake out a derivative position ahead of transacting any significant business in the physical market, and if their client instructions are index-moving, that position will generally be in the SPI rather than individual options, because it's cheaper. So, tracking the SPI (or individual option/futures components of it if you can be bothered and have the resources) will always provide some good guidance to the imminent movement in the physical and thus (I assume) the proxy CFD.

That might sound like a formula for instant and limitless profits and you would be correct to discard it as a theory if I was trying to sell it as that. I'm not. The sad truth is that most of the index movement on the ASX over time is achieved in the gapping between yesterday's close and today's open, so what you do intraday in Oz is largely irrelevant:- hence my earlier post about trading the SPI overnight. Not only that, but it's expensive and again over time, the rewards don't really stack up vs the investment in time and energy, let alone factoring in losses from unexpected intraday moves (eg:- surprise economic data, news, political shenanigans or whatever). The latter doesn't happen often, but when it does it can cripple an open day-trade and erode weeks or months of tiny gains.

Like most, if not all, pearls of theoretical wisdom, the devil is in the detail. In this case, it is execution and actually making some money from the plan as opposed to just being able to claim "being right" at the next dinner party.

FWIW
Snap