Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[Tisme]

Oh so you learnt something... ! Fantastic. And here I was fearing you were unteachable. My bad..
I just can't understand why some people say engineers are so fixated on their graphs and equations they can't recognise a bigger picture.

Too busy keeping up the professional training and global trends perhaps? Not merely engineering either.

Of course you are assuming no one but yourself understands the big picture thus your penchant for plagiarising journalist's plagiarised scholary articles that tell half truths to sensationalise and muddy the waters of the basic truths and in fact preclude anyone suggesting there is fiction going on.

 

[basilio]

and in fact preclude anyone suggesting there is fiction going on.

So are you trying to say that the extent and dangers of Global Warming are fictitious ? Is that a follow on from your previous ridiculous efforts at undermining the concerns about global warming causing widespread deadly heatwaves in China (and elsewhere) by saying global temperatures needed to rise 12C to cause such a problem ?

If you have an argument with Damien Carringtons reporting of the Nature paper which identified the issue how about identifying those points in a post rather than make your sweeping BS comments ? Good journalism pulls together the gist of information and presents it in a way that most educated people can understand. Overall I trust the capacity of Damien Carrington to present a fair picture of the science research around global warming. That is why I am happy to use his summaries.

With regard to understanding the big picture of GW? I reckon I do understand more than the average punter and with good reason. You might understand it as well but when you came up with that ridiculous 12C comment and continued to defend it despite the fact it made no practical sense one has to wonder. And your continued efforts to look for fictions in the discussion when at the most we are talking about ranges of possibilities don't inspire confidence.

 

[SirRumpole]

You might understand it as well but when you came up with that ridiculous 12C comment and continued to defend it despite the fact it made no practical sense one has to wonder. And your continued efforts to look for fictions in the discussion when at the most we are talking about ranges of possibilities don't inspire confidence.

Tisme's calculation of a 12C rise was valid based on certain assumptions. Read up on the relationship between dry and wet bulb temperatures and humidity and you'll see he was right.

Whether the assumptions were valid is another matter. Personally I agree that CC is real and dangerous and that something must be done about is ASAP. Judging by the twits in power in certain countries I doubt that much will be done untill it's too late.

 

[basilio]

Tisme's calculation of a 12C rise was valid based on certain assumptions. Read up on the relationship between dry and wet bulb temperatures and humidity and you'll see he was right.

Whether the assumptions were valid is another matter.

I won't argue with you or Tisme about a theoritical basis for saying world temperatures needed to rise 12C to cause deadly heat waves in China. That is quite irrelevant

The trouble is that the statement never made any practical sense in the real world. I was so amazed at Tismes comment my first response was a quiet question suggesting he might reassess his comment. But that didn't seem to ring any bells and he continued to double down on saying the world needed to warm by 12C to reach the dangerous levels required for the deadly heat waves.

Lets accept Tisme is a bright guy. Wouldn't it make sense to reconsider that given what is already happening with regard to extreme weather conditions and the hundreds of people who have already died from heat stroke around the globe the 12C figure needed reviewing ? That there were other factors in play? That in fact the CC researchers knew their stuff and were making good calls? The paper and its figures was there to examine.

 

[Tisme]

I won't argue with you or Tisme about a theoritical basis for saying world temperatures needed to rise 12C to cause deadly heat waves in China. That is quite irrelevant

The trouble is that the statement never made any practical sense in the real world. I was so amazed at Tismes comment my first response was a quiet question suggesting he might reassess his comment. But that didn't seem to ring any bells and he continued to double down on saying the world needed to warm by 12C to reach the dangerous levels required for the deadly heat waves.

Lets accept Tisme is a bright guy. Wouldn't it make sense to reconsider that given what is already happening with regard to extreme weather conditions and the hundreds of people who have already died from heat stroke around the globe the 12C figure needed reviewing ? That there were other factors in play? That in fact the CC researchers knew their stuff and were making good calls? The paper and its figures was there to examine.

I'm not arguing with any researchers bas, the science is what it is, which is why I recommended you consult with other experts.

Other factors? Well I think I confined myself pretty well to the wetbulb contention. I also posted a goto ABCTV site that patently got it wrong with wetbulbs, which indicates the lack of media nous and peer review at even highly regarded media sites.

I even gave you a psych. chart to plot the relationships between WB, DB, enthalpy, RH% and dewpoint....

I will finish by saying that China does not exist in a fishbowl of its own, you can't argue isolation then validly argue against the same premise to beat me with a climate change stick.

 

[Smurf1976]

My personal thought is that we really don't know exactly what happens at what temperatures.

Even with machinery etc, we don't have good data for what's actually in use beyond big stuff in industrial situations. Eg we can calculate the loss of generating capacity at Jeeralang as temperature goes up but we've really got no idea what % of residential and non-industrial business air-conditioners still work at 45, 48, 50 or whatever degrees. What we can reasonably assume however is that they'll fail at some point which isn't too far above present extreme maximums.

Natural stuff again we're not really sure. What's the maximum temperature rating on a wombat? We could work it out for the animal itself but it gets more complex once you factor in their actual living conditions, health of different animals an so on. In practice x% would be harmed at a certain temperature, more at a higher temperature etc. We can estimate but nobody's 100% certain at what point we'll be surrounded by dead wombats.

What can be said in regard to all this is that everything living evolved / was created (depending on your viewpoint there) based on climate fairly similar to that of the 20th century.

For anything built by humans, from houses to aircraft, they were likewise all designed and built with climate being an influence and typically there's not a lot of margin to accommodate any increase in temperature. Theoretically it can be done yes but in practice anything used by households or small business likely has a pretty minimal tolerance and same goes for large scale infrastructure like power. In practice it has all been designed and built to cope with temperatures not much different from that experienced historically, indeed in the Australian context for some states it's hit and miss whether or not the power supply can in 2018 manage to supply levels of consumption which have actually occurred in the relatively recent past since capability has been reduced.

So I'm not going to say its 12 degrees, 6 degrees or whatever. What I will say though is that if you were to steadily increase the temperature then things will start to break both natural and man-made.

A complicating factor there is short term weather. If climate change increase potential maximum temperatures then we're only going to find out what the impacts are when we actually get weather conditions which produce the now higher potential maximum. So we're not going to see what happens in 0.1 degree increments, more likely we'll go many years seeing nothing and then find out what happens with a whole 1 degree increment.

 

[basilio]

So from this discussion is Tisme going back to his original assertion that, according to his calculations, global temperatures will need to rise by 12C in order to create conditions that will cause catastrophic heat waves in China?

 

[Tisme]

So from this discussion is Tisme going back to his original assertion that, according to his calculations, global temperatures will need to rise by 12C in order to create conditions that will cause catastrophic heat waves in China?

Tisme will stay with what he wrote in the context that he wrote it.

Handbooks which once ran to 4 x 40mm thick are available here and good for getting started. Rather a lot of calculus when doing precision mathematical calculations:

https://www.ashrae.org/technical-resources/ashrae-handbook/ashrae-handbook-online

 

[Tisme]

My personal thought is that we really don't know exactly what happens at what temperatures.

Even with machinery etc, we don't have good data for what's actually in use beyond big stuff in industrial situations. Eg we can calculate the loss of generating capacity at Jeeralang as temperature goes up but we've really got no idea what % of residential and non-industrial business air-conditioners still work at 45, 48, 50 or whatever degrees. What we can reasonably assume however is that they'll fail at some point which isn't too far above present extreme maximums.

Natural stuff again we're not really sure. What's the maximum temperature rating on a wombat? We could work it out for the animal itself but it gets more complex once you factor in their actual living conditions, health of different animals an so on. In practice x% would be harmed at a certain temperature, more at a higher temperature etc. We can estimate but nobody's 100% certain at what point we'll be surrounded by dead wombats.

What can be said in regard to all this is that everything living evolved / was created (depending on your viewpoint there) based on climate fairly similar to that of the 20th century.

For anything built by humans, from houses to aircraft, they were likewise all designed and built with climate being an influence and typically there's not a lot of margin to accommodate any increase in temperature. Theoretically it can be done yes but in practice anything used by households or small business likely has a pretty minimal tolerance and same goes for large scale infrastructure like power. In practice it has all been designed and built to cope with temperatures not much different from that experienced historically, indeed in the Australian context for some states it's hit and miss whether or not the power supply can in 2018 manage to supply levels of consumption which have actually occurred in the relatively recent past since capability has been reduced.

So I'm not going to say its 12 degrees, 6 degrees or whatever. What I will say though is that if you were to steadily increase the temperature then things will start to break both natural and man-made.

A complicating factor there is short term weather. If climate change increase potential maximum temperatures then we're only going to find out what the impacts are when we actually get weather conditions which produce the now higher potential maximum. So we're not going to see what happens in 0.1 degree increments, more likely we'll go many years seeing nothing and then find out what happens with a whole 1 degree increment.

I think you would agree that the designers of power stations take a great deal of care to get it well covered before committing their client to megabucks on sheds, conveyors, fire systems, generators, etc. Maximum demand calcs need to be fairly accurate and predicated on anecdotal and prediction modelling.so that when it fails it becomes Bill Shorten's fault.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think you would agree that the designers of power stations take a great deal of care to get it well covered

I have confidence that power stations as a whole will work under the conditions they were designed for.

Using SA as an example (because it’s hotter than Tas and incidentally I’m moving there but that’s another story) what I don’t have confidence in is:

That the air-conditioning in the house I’ve just bought is sized to be adequate for any particular temperature. It might be or someone might have just guessed.

That the A/C would even function, at all, beyond the mid-40’s. It’s a typical domestic unit nothing fancy.

That all aspects of the electricity supply chain would function on a hypothetical 50 degree day. In practice I’d be expecting a failure.

So on a 40 degree day I’m pretty confident that the A/C will work in my new (actually fairly old) house.

If it reaches 50 degrees across SA then the only thing I’m confident in is that the windows should still be openable such that the temperature inside need not exceed 50. I sure won’t be placing any bets on the A/C working at that point - odds are that between power generation, transmission, distribution and the A/C itself something will at least run out of capacity and quite likely fail altogether.

Individual power stations are usually designed well but for everyone to have power requires that you’ve got enough of them and that the networks are also up to the task.

To have a household A/C working also requires that the machine can tolerate that temperature and is adequately sized. Check the specs for a domestic A/C and the upper limit is typically specified as 46 or even 43. It will likely go a bit higher in practice but there’s going to be a limit where it trips.

Put that all together and it should work fine at 40 but will almost certainly fail at 50.

 

[Tisme]

I have confidence that power stations as a whole will work under the conditions they were designed for.

Using SA as an example (because it’s hotter than Tas and incidentally I’m moving there but that’s another story) what I don’t have confidence in is:

That the air-conditioning in the house I’ve just bought is sized to be adequate for any particular temperature. It might be or someone might have just guessed.

That the A/C would even function, at all, beyond the mid-40’s. It’s a typical domestic unit nothing fancy.

That all aspects of the electricity supply chain would function on a hypothetical 50 degree day. In practice I’d be expecting a failure.

So on a 40 degree day I’m pretty confident that the A/C will work in my new (actually fairly old) house.

If it reaches 50 degrees across SA then the only thing I’m confident in is that the windows should still be openable such that the temperature inside need not exceed 50. I sure won’t be placing any bets on the A/C working at that point - odds are that between power generation, transmission, distribution and the A/C itself something will at least run out of capacity and quite likely fail altogether.

Individual power stations are usually designed well but for everyone to have power requires that you’ve got enough of them and that the networks are also up to the task.

To have a household A/C working also requires that the machine can tolerate that temperature and is adequately sized. Check the specs for a domestic A/C and the upper limit is typically specified as 46 or even 43. It will likely go a bit higher in practice but there’s going to be a limit where it trips.

Put that all together and it should work fine at 40 but will almost certainly fail at 50.

Certainly if the aircond in your new digs is old then it may well run out of puff. It's the indoor electronics that doesn't particularly like 40C+ indoor temps and condensing humidity. Offshelf units are generally rated 46C, but when designing for higher sustained ambients that's when engineering takes over and eventually mass production follows any trend.

If you compare say a late model R22 air cooled machine with a really good COP ~2.85 to a newer 410A machine with COP ~4.4 there is a substantial improvement (reduction) in energy consumption per KwR. With water cooled the COPs rise to 6 +.

Under supply and over supply is always going to be problematic if political football and accountants get in the mix.

 

[basilio]

About 10-15 years ago CC scientists started to talk about feedback loops in the environment which when triggered would speed up the process of global warming. For example when sea ice disappears in the Arctic there is no ice to reflect the sun so solar heat is free to be absorbed by the open sea.

I believe about 12 different feedback loops were noted at the time.

The latest research by CC scientists re examines these feedback loops and believes we may have already be on a one way path to a much warmer world.

'Many parts of Earth could become uninhabitable': Study's grim warning
Blake Foden7 August 2018 — 9:05am

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Talking points

• Earth is at risk of entering an irreversible "hothouse" climate, according to a new study
• Many parts of the planet could become uninhabitable, scientists warn
• The point of no return "could be only decades ahead"

Many parts of Earth could become uninhabitable for humans, with the planet at risk of entering an irreversible "hothouse" climate.

That's the alarming warning from an international team of scientists, including Australian National University professor Will Steffen, in a study published on Tuesday.

..Professor Steffen said if temperatures rose to two degrees above pre-industrial levels, it could trigger natural processes that would cause further warming of the Earth, even if all human emissions ceased.

..Professor Steffen said scientists considered 10 natural feedback processes as part of the study, some of which were "tipping elements" that could lead to abrupt changes if a critical threshold was crossed.

Those elements included the reduction of Antarctic sea ice and polar sheets, the release of methane trapped on the ocean floor and Amazon rainforest dieback.

“The real concern is these tipping elements can act like a row of dominoes," Professor Steffen said.

"Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth towards another.

"It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over."

The impacts on arguably Australia's most notable natural attraction, the Great Barrier Reef, would be severe.

"A Hothouse Earth trajectory would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs ... by the end of this century or earlier," the study says.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/na...ble-study-s-grim-warning-20180807-p4zvwx.html

(Isn't it a good thing though that Tismes mathematical calculations can assure us it will take a 12C increase in global temperatures before we are parboiled. Plenty of time really!)

 

[Smurf1976]

Certainly if the aircond in your new digs is old then it may well run out of puff.

For the majority of "off the shelf" domestic A/C's there will be a specified maximum operating temperature of 43 - 46 degrees. Some "top of the range" domestic stuff goes to 50 degrees.

The detail is somewhat unimportant however since the real point is that these limits for things like A/C's, public transport systems, aircraft, power supply and so on are only marginally above what would in 2018 be regarded as extreme hot weather.

Get a 46 degree day in Melbourne or a 47 degree day in Adelaide, that is equal to the record in both states, and a few things will fail in practice. The world won't end but some A/C's will trip due to either pressure or thermal, some train lines will have issues, the asphalt will go soft here and there, someone somewhere will have their power turned off when supply runs short, etc.

Now push that up even 3 more degrees and we're going to be exceeding rather a lot of limits with all this and "a few" becomes "a lot" in all these contexts. I doubt anyone has pondered the implications or cost but it won't be small.

My point isn't specifically about whether or not someone's A/C is adequate, that's really just an example, but a much broader statement that built infrastructure wasn't built to cope with anything much hotter than we see today.

 

[explod]

"People living in otherwise cool climates in the Northern Hemisphere have suddenly found themselves, day after day, faced with the need to escape the repetitively oppressive heat.

When temperatures in traditionally temperate climates soar day after day to well over 30°C and sometimes over 40°C, the average citizen, whether at work or on vacation, seeks the means to escape the intense heat. Since June, much of the Northern Hemisphere has been undergoing an exceptional heatwave.

We sometimes need to be reminded that the weather should never be confused with the climate, but as one expert explains, “The logic that climate change will do this is inescapable — the world is becoming warmer, and so heatwaves like this are becoming more common.”

https://www.fairobserver.com/more/e...heatwave-climate-change-news-this-week-23903/

 

[SirRumpole]

Incompetence and a bit of hot and wet weather gives this.

How are we going to manage 45C ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-...acts-truck-bruce-highway-central-qld/10090650

 

[luutzu]

Incompetence and a bit of hot and wet weather gives this.

How are we going to manage 45C ?

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-...acts-truck-bruce-highway-central-qld/10090650

Hope and Prayers?

I actually had a similar, though not as bad, experience with my dad's van some years back.

Fully loaded the van on a very hot summer day. One of the tyre's side bulge out, deformed. Lucky it didn't pop because I was right on top of it.

Have to pull over side roads. The bitumen was so hot you just can't touch it without a a sheet or two rolled up. Sweating from both the heat and the thought of a tonne collapsing on you is no fun.

In other news, read that California's current bush fire is the largest in its history. Is expected to keep burning til the end of August.

Their previous record was set last year I think.

 

[luutzu]

For the majority of "off the shelf" domestic A/C's there will be a specified maximum operating temperature of 43 - 46 degrees. Some "top of the range" domestic stuff goes to 50 degrees.

The detail is somewhat unimportant however since the real point is that these limits for things like A/C's, public transport systems, aircraft, power supply and so on are only marginally above what would in 2018 be regarded as extreme hot weather.

Get a 46 degree day in Melbourne or a 47 degree day in Adelaide, that is equal to the record in both states, and a few things will fail in practice. The world won't end but some A/C's will trip due to either pressure or thermal, some train lines will have issues, the asphalt will go soft here and there, someone somewhere will have their power turned off when supply runs short, etc.

Now push that up even 3 more degrees and we're going to be exceeding rather a lot of limits with all this and "a few" becomes "a lot" in all these contexts. I doubt anyone has pondered the implications or cost but it won't be small.

My point isn't specifically about whether or not someone's A/C is adequate, that's really just an example, but a much broader statement that built infrastructure wasn't built to cope with anything much hotter than we see today.

One man's expense is another billionaire's growth opportunity Smurf.

 

[Smurf1976]

Incompetence and a bit of hot and wet weather gives this.

I don't pay much attention to Qld politics but I've heard the inside story before anything actually melted.

Some years ago there was a big purge at Transport & Main Roads. The kind of purge that is done by reducing headcount no matter what - cost isn't a factor and who goes doesn't really matter either just as long as numbers are cut.

End result is they lost massive technical expertise as people retired early, pursued alternative careers in either the public or private sector, moved interstate / overseas, started unrelated businesses etc and generally got on with their lives.

Last I head they were spending serious $ on consultants trying to plug the knowledge gaps.

Some chap by the name of Newman was apparently responsible for it all. Cost the state serious $ and will do for many years yet since a lot of the damage is done but not yet broken as such if that makes sense.

That's not the only circumstance of very similar nature I'm aware of. I'm mentioning this one however since I've been assured all the info is in the public domain so there's no issues with confidentiality etc.

 

[Smurf1976]

I actually had a similar, though not as bad, experience with my dad's van some years back

Now there's one I hadn't thought of - tyres. They'll have temperature limits certainly due to the nature of them.

There's going to be an awful lot of things like this that nobody has given any thought to. As I mentioned in a previous post - everything done by humans has been done so that it works with the present climate. Some things will adapt just fine, a stone wall is probably going to be fine for example, but many things will fail either immediately or over a period of time if they're exposed to higher temperatures.

If you'd like to experiment then get yourself any old electronic device that you don't want but which still works. Set your oven to 60 degrees and put the device in the oven. See what happens.

I'll save you the time by telling you that the plastic will in most cases deform enough to consider the device ruined. Anything with no mechanical parts will probably still function but any plastic gears or other moving parts will fail as they become too soft. This happens at only 60 degrees and if we consider that in the real world something might be several degrees above ambient due to sitting in the sun or being inside a car, then there's stuff all margin between present hot weather and when the problems start in practice.

 

[basilio]

Now there's one I hadn't thought of - tyres. They'll have temperature limits certainly due to the nature of them.

There's going to be an awful lot of things like this that nobody has given any thought to. As I mentioned in a previous post - everything done by humans has been done so that it works with the present climate. Some things will adapt just fine, a stone wall is probably going to be fine for example, but many things will fail either immediately or over a period of time if they're exposed to higher temperatures.

If you'd like to experiment then get yourself any old electronic device that you don't want but which still works. Set your oven to 60 degrees and put the device in the oven. See what happens.

I'll save you the time by telling you that the plastic will in most cases deform enough to consider the device ruined. Anything with no mechanical parts will probably still function but any plastic gears or other moving parts will fail as they become too soft. This happens at only 60 degrees and if we consider that in the real world something might be several degrees above ambient due to sitting in the sun or being inside a car, then there's stuff all margin between present hot weather and when the problems start in practice.

Doesn't take much thinking to recognise how many critical elements of our society will breakdown in further temperature extremes. I believe our current first world environments are far more fragile than we would like to think. Smurfs observations about A/C, power generation, transport and the capacity of a multitude of devices to fail under extreme temperature loads need a very focused attention - before the heat wave.

It will be one of the necessary adaptions we need to make for the CC that is already certain to happen.