Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[cynic]

They relate to the state, not Ellicot City.
...

When did Baltimore become "the state"?!!!
(Prior to reading your post, I was of the distinct impression that Baltimore was actually a city in a USA state, namely Maryland.)

 

[Knobby22]

When did Baltimore become "the state"?!!!
(Prior to reading your post, I was of the distinct impression that Baltimore was actually a city in a USA state, namely Maryland.)

Good point, the examples to say it ain't so relate to Baltimore, not Elicot City which suffered the bad luck of two 1000 year floods.

 

[cynic]

Good point, the examples to say it ain't so relate to Baltimore, not Elicot City which suffered the bad luck of two 1000 year floods.

So they're not really 1000 year floods then, are they?!

And when engaging in discussions about effects that are purportedly impacting our entire planet, how is the splicing of statistics between two cities, less than 20km apart, helpful?

 

[Knobby22]

It's a probability definition created by engineers to design infrastructure. Usually they try to design for 30 year peaks.
It's like calculus, climate is a derivative of weather and weather is a derivative of individual incidents.

True, two individual 1000 year incidents in one place means little, on its own.

 

[Tisme]

They relate to the state, not Ellicot City.
I checked USA Today and the weatherman said it was a 1 in a 1000 year flood and they have had two in 2 years but that is caused by small storms with very heavy rainfall and it was just bad luck and he wouldn't like to say that global warming was at all responsible. I understand his reticence.

In Brisbane development had wiped out much of the impedance to spread and mismanagement resulted in the dam locks being opened on a gamble. As a result the level was lower, but the devastation was much wider than 1974

 

[Tisme]

Good point, the examples to say it ain't so relate to Baltimore, not Elicot City which suffered the bad luck of two 1000 year floods.

You do know that Ellicot City is a small population centre (66k people) within Baltimore metro area?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/loca...6c947fd0cb8_story.html?utm_term=.33a0b9950647

The earliest and most destructive flood recorded came in 1868, when the Patapsco River rose five feet in 10 minutes.


In fact, as Harper’s Weekly reported at the time, the river at Ellicott City “rose ten feet before a drop of rain had fallen there, and was at one time forty feet high!”

That may be a bit of an exaggeration, but what is certain is that the Patapsco rose more than 20 feet and killed 43 people, according to the Baltimore Sun.

 

[Knobby22]

It's over 15km though.

Thanks for the article, most interesting:

According to the National Weather Service, the Patapsco River rose 14 feet in about 90 minutes Saturday evening.

For so much rain to fall so intensely in any given year works out to be a 0.1 of a percent chance, the National Weather Service said.

 

[Tisme]

It's over 15km though.

Thanks for the article, most interesting:

According to the National Weather Service, the Patapsco River rose 14 feet in about 90 minutes Saturday evening.

For so much rain to fall so intensely in any given year works out to be a 0.1 of a percent chance, the National Weather Service said.

Given my first hand experience with the 2011 Brissy flood I'll stay on the fence for now, although I am biased towards human error being a real variable in urban catastrophes.

https://www.livestormchasers.com/ma...behind-devastating-flooding-ellicott-city-md/

 

[Tisme]

Rather interesting simulation that shows both ocean drop and rise effects on coastlines

https://calculatedearth.com/

 

[basilio]

Fascinating what we can saw at a key stroke about the consequences of global warming.

 

[Knobby22]

Australia get's out of it pretty well over the next 30 years. Inland sea which helps our weather, Sydney is stuffed with regular floodling but as a Melbournian I can enjoy that occurring. (just kidding OK! I would actually be upset for those Sydneysiders, well a little )

Also beware of real estate salesmen selling land in Miami.

 

[basilio]

Australia get's out of it pretty well over the next 30 years. Inland sea which helps our weather, Sydney is stuffed with regular floodling but as a Melbournian I can enjoy that occurring. (just kidding OK! I would actually be upset for those Sydneysiders, well a little )

Also beware of real estate salesmen selling land in Miami.

Wow !! What maps are you reading Knobby ? A metre sea rise in Melbourne will make a 'orrible mess of Albert Park, Middle Park, Elwood, Brighton at the very least. If the actual sea level isn't at peoples doorstep you can be certain storm surges will be as will sea water coming under the soil. and travelling inland.

And I'll be most interested to see the plans on making sure the sewage farms are are protected. Not much joy there either.

Overall I think all coastal cities will need to doa proper evaluation of infrastructure at risk in the event of flooding.

 

[Knobby22]

e

Wow !! What maps are you reading Knobby ? A metre sea rise in Melbourne will make a 'orrible mess of Albert Park, Middle Park, Elwood, Brighton at the very least. If the actual sea level isn't at peoples doorstep you can be certain storm surges will be as will sea water coming under the soil. and travelling inland.

And I'll be most interested to see the plans on making sure the sewage farms are are protected. Not much joy there either.

Overall I think all coastal cities will need to doa proper evaluation of infrastructure at risk in the event of flooding.

I use to live in Elwood Basilio. It's already below sea level, just a ridge between the original swamp and the sea. I agree it would definitely flood.
Albert Park and Middle park are full of super wealthy people, they will build a sea wall. I worked on the sea wall for St Kilda in anticipation of the sea level rise already.
Also the Maribyrnong is a tidal river and that will flood more easily. I live near there so I am more scared of that. In comparison, Sydney is in massive trouble, wouldn't you say?

Should also say long term all the coastal cities are in trouble, probably talking 50 years though (hopefully though you never know, Greenland melting too fast, permafrost in Russia melting, there are a few scenarios that could quicken this).

 

[Tisme]

Coldest start to winter in SE QLD for 12 years.

 

[basilio]

All about Global Warming creating hotter oceans and thus more powerful hurricances with huge amounts of rain dumped during storms.

 

[dutchie]

Global warming/ Climate change as an issue is dead (like Monty Pythons' parrot)

 

[basilio]

Global warming/ Climate change as an issue is dead (like Monty Pythons' parrot)

And your evidence /reasons for that statement is ?
( The Trump story becasue I say so..)

 

[explod]

Global warming/ Climate change as an issue is dead (like Monty Pythons' parrot)

Yep, beaches being washed away in WA and raging early season fires in the US as we speak,

can't stop any of it now,

so just party.

 

[basilio]

I wonder when the insurance companies pull out of these areas ? What about banks and local councils?


Flooding from sea level rise threatens over 300,000 US coastal homes – study
Climate change study predicts ‘staggering impact’ of swelling oceans on coastal communities within next 30 years

Oliver Milman in New York

@olliemilman
Mon 18 Jun 2018 06.00 BST Last modified on Mon 18 Jun 2018 13.08 BST

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Oceanfront homes in Virginia Beach, Virginia. Houses on the US coastline could risk being flooded every two weeks. Photograph: Alamy
Sea level rise driven by climate change is set to pose an existential crisis to many US coastal communities, with new research finding that as many as 311,000 homes face being flooded every two weeks within the next 30 years.

The swelling oceans are forecast repeatedly to soak coastal residences collectively worth $120bn by 2045 if greenhouse gas emissions are not severely curtailed, experts warn. This will potentially inflict a huge financial and emotional toll on the half a million Americans who live in the properties at risk of having their basements, backyards, garages or living rooms inundated every other week.

“The impact could well be staggering,” said Kristina Dahl, a senior climate scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). “This level of flooding would be a tipping point where people in these communities would think it’s unsustainable.

“Even homes along the Gulf coast that are elevated would be affected, as they’d have to drive through salt water to get to work or face their kids’ school being cut off. You can imagine people walking away from mortgages, away from their homes.”

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...-impact-us-coastal-homes-study-climate-change

 

[basilio]

Can we suck CO2 out of the atmosphere at a competitive price ? Perhaps we can ...

Banks of fans blow air through a carbon dioxide–capturing solution in this rendering of a direct air capture plant.

Carbon Engineering
Cost plunges for capturing carbon dioxide from the air
By Robert F. ServiceJun. 7, 2018 , 11:25 AM

Pulling carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air and using it to make synthetic fuel seems like the ultimate solution to climate change: Instead of adding ever more CO2 to the air from fossil fuels, we can simply recycle the same CO2 molecules over and over. But such technology is expensive—about $600 per ton of CO2, by one recent estimate. Now, in a new study, scientists say future chemical plants could drop that cost below $100 per ton—which could make synthetic fuels a reality in places such as California that incentivize low-carbon fuels.

Those numbers are “real progress,” says Chris Field, a climate scientist at Stanford University in Palo Alto, California. That’s because the new study bases its numbers on data and costs from a real pilot facility, whereas others have relied on scientists’ best guesses of how CO2 capture technologies scale up. “These guys actually have something you can measure,” says Stephen Pacala, an ecologist with Princeton University who is chairing a panel on carbon removal technologies for the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine.

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/cost-plunges-capturing-carbon-dioxide-air