Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[wayneL]

Wayne you clearly don't need to smoke the shyte or any stuff for that matter.. I was just trying to offer you an exit excus for your complete BS. Your paranoid delusions are carefully cultivated, home grown and closely held.

Hahaha! No prize for second place, bas.

 

[basilio]

Impact of global warming on extreme weather conditions in Australia (and around the world) is making many areas uninsurable. If Australia has a severe bushfire season in 23-24 with a predicted dry, hot summer the cumulative consequences of the last 4 years could be the devastating.

Extreme weather and rising premiums make parts of regional Australia ‘uninsurable’

Insurance costs for some properties have tripled despite never having been directly affected by natural disaster

www.theguardian.com

Global Warming Is Already Costing the Insurance Industry Historic Amounts

And that's only expected to rise, says a major reinsurance company.

www.popularmechanics.com

 

[macca]

Impact of global warming on extreme weather conditions in Australia (and around the world) is making many areas uninsurable. If Australia has a severe bushfire season in 23-24 with a predicted dry, hot summer the cumulative consequences of the last 4 years could be the devastating.

Extreme weather and rising premiums make parts of regional Australia ‘uninsurable’

Insurance costs for some properties have tripled despite never having been directly affected by natural disaster

www.theguardian.com

Global Warming Is Already Costing the Insurance Industry Historic Amounts

And that's only expected to rise, says a major reinsurance company.

www.popularmechanics.com

Yes, but around here they have arranged a huge hazard reduction campaign to burn off 5% of 1000 hectares.

Given that we have a large koala population around here, when the rest goes up on a stinking hot day, we will be able to have BBQ koala for dinner.

Probably lose up to 50 koalas when it happens

NFI springs to mind

 

[basilio]

This isn't the same story that went around a few weeks.
This is a fresh new Asian heat wave breaking last months record temperatures

Brutal heat across Asia prompts warnings from climatologists of what's to come

There are fresh warnings about the soaring heat across south and south-east Asia as a UN report warns global temperatures are very likely to hit records in the next five years.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Some "good" news on Global Warming ?
Yes, hopefully,... If we can in fact reach zero emissions in the medium term future. So lets get cracking.

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached?​

Zeke Hausfather​

29.04.2021 | 3:00pm

EmissionsExplainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached?


Media reports frequently claim that the world is facing “committed warming” in the future as a result of past emissions, meaning higher temperatures are “locked in”, “in the pipeline” or “inevitable”, regardless of the choices society takes today.

The best available evidence shows that, on the contrary, warming is likely to more or less stop once carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reach zero, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

When scientists have pointed this out recently, it has been reported as a new scientific finding. However, the scientific community has recognised that zero CO2 emissions likely implied flat future temperatures since at least 2008. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2018 special report on 1.5C also included a specific focus on zero-emissions scenarios with similar findings.

Explainer: Will global warming ‘stop’ as soon as net-zero emissions are reached? - Carbon Brief

Warming is likely to more or less stop once net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) is reached, meaning humans have the power to choose their climate future.

www.carbonbrief.org

 

[Smurf1976]

Media reports frequently claim that the world is facing “committed warming” in the future as a result of past emissions, meaning higher temperatures are “locked in”, “in the pipeline” or “inevitable”, regardless of the choices society takes today.

To be fair to the media, this has been the claim made by the lobbying organisations for many years.

The media are just reporting it.

 

[basilio]

To be fair to the media, this has been the claim made by the lobbying organisations for many years.

I believe the intention of the article has been to clarify the development of climate models which have suggested that if we can reach zero emissions ( really ?) there will be quick responses in terms of increasing temperatures.

The analysis makes sense and I would like to believe this is the case. But I have reservations.

 

[rederob]

I believe the intention of the article has been to clarify the development of climate models which have suggested that if we can reach zero emissions ( really ?) there will be quick responses in terms of increasing temperatures.

The analysis makes sense and I would like to believe this is the case. But I have reservations.

The problem we have is that there are no realistic scenarios showing net zero by 2050. China expects to have turned around by 2060, but the first world ambitions of several billion people in the developing world could add to this timeframe.

Here's what the IPCC are saying on the optimistic side:

"Changing course to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) — with no or limited overshoot — will instead require deep GHG emissions reductions in the near-term. In modelled pathways that limit global warming to this goal, GHG emissions peak immediately and before 2025 at the latest. They then drop rapidly, declining 43% by 2030 and 60% by 2035, relative to 2019 levels."​

However, the IPCC also points out that:

"In pathways limiting warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) with no or limited overshoot just a net 510 GtCO2 can be emitted before carbon dioxide emissions reach net zero in the early 2050s. Yet future carbon dioxide emissions from existing and planned fossil fuel infrastructure alone could surpass that limit by 340 GtCO2, reaching 850 GtCO2."​

​

On topic, in my remaining lifetime it's just going to keep getting hotter.
Yes AGW is "stoppable" but few nations have made the necessary commitment to GHG reductions that suggest a turnaround will occur within a few generations.

 

[basilio]

Where our fire fighters are spending their winter.
And summer is just starting in Canada

Canada's wildfires force evacuations in Quebec as Halifax residents return to destroyed homes​

Posted Sat 3 Jun 2023 at 1:26pmSaturday 3 Jun 2023 at 1:26pm
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.

Quebec community evacuated due to advancing wildfires
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Some 10,000 residents in coastal Quebec were forced to evacuate homes on Friday as wildfires engulfed more Canadian provinces, in what is emerging as one of the worst starts to the country's forest fire season.

Key points:​

• About 30,000 people across Canada have been displaced due to forest fires
• The fires have been burning in nearly all of Canada's provinces
• Halifax residents were bussed back to view their homes destroyed by fire

Canadian armed forces have been deployed in western Canada since early May and troops were sent to Nova Scotia on Thursday. Help has also come from the United States, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa, and more help is expected to arrive next week.

Some 30,000 people across Canada are displaced due to forest fires that are burning in nearly all of Canada's provinces.

More than 2.7 million hectares have been scorched so far this year across the country, equal to more than five million football fields, federal Emergency Preparedness Minister Bill Blair has said.

That's more than 10 times the average area typically burned by this time of year over the past decade.

Wildfires force evacuations in Quebec as Halifax residents return to destroyed homes

Some 10,000 residents in coastal Quebec were forced to evacuate homes as wildfires engulfed more Canadian provinces, in what is emerging as one of the worst starts to the country's forest fire season.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

The problem we have is that there are no realistic scenarios showing net zero by 2050.

To the extent I have disagreement with activists, it's that most seem to be in denial on this point.

Well intentioned perhaps, so I'm not going to be harsh on them personally, but denial nonetheless.

To have any chance at all requires an "all of the above" approach that simply isn't on the table at present.

All of the above = wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, hydro, tidal, biomass, energy efficiency, product redesign for durability, recycling, lifestyle change, curbing population and so on.

And even that will struggle to be adequate.

A big part is humans collectively can't get themselves agreed that it's even necessary to take action or the scale of what's required. Heck we can't even agree to put wind farms just off the coast or to stop having people commute to offices so as to sit quietly in front of computers all day. And those two are dead easy compared to some of the rest.

 

[moXJO]

The last big bushfires were 2019-2020?
Just before the rains started to hit.

 

[basilio]

The last big bushfires were 2019-2020?
Just before the rains started to hit.

Yes. Australia had an unprecedented 3 years of La Nina weather. So the natural disasters ( accelerated by global warming) have been extensive record flooding.

This year the BOM is keeping an eye on a possible El Nino effect.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

 

[macca]

The last big bushfires were 2019-2020?
Just before the rains started to hit.

Yep, around here the bush is overgrown everywhere, at least 25 years since it was last burnt off.

One of the best koala habitats in NSW, still quite a few alive at present, all ready to be burnt when the fires come through one summer.

I am feeling sad just typing about it, I attach one of my favourite photos taken in my back yard

 

[moXJO]

Yep, around here the bush is overgrown everywhere, at least 25 years since it was last burnt off.

One of the best koala habitats in NSW, still quite a few alive at present, all ready to be burnt when the fires come through one summer.

I am feeling sad just typing about it, I attach one of my favourite photos taken in my back yard

View attachment 157866

I often wondered how this species survived so long.

 

[macca]

I often wondered how this species survived so long.

Aboriginal people managed their land all the time, they might burn small patches every month of the year.

They saw themselves as managers of the land for future generations, the tree canopy was "gods shelter" for all living things

If a fire crowned out it was a disgrace to the managers of the land.

A koalas way of escaping fire is to climb as high as possible, then sit and wait for the fire to go past.

That works perfectly for a well managed area of forest which is burnt off regularly to get rid of the scrub but is a disaster when politics take over from experience and knowledge

 

[basilio]

So going back to Post 4085 this is where we are currently heading with CO2 emissions. And if we want to stabilise the situation we have to reduce emissions by 6% a year until we reach net zero. ​

​

Carbon dioxide in atmosphere hits new record high as scientists call for 'every effort to slash carbon pollution'​

ABC Science
/
By environment reporter Nick Kilvert
Posted 1h ago1 hours ago, updated 44m ago44 minutes ago

Observations have been taken at the Mauna Loa since 1958.(Supplied: NOAA)
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Scientists say we need to make "every effort" to combat dangerous climate change as the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hits a record high.

Key points:​

• Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa in Hawaii jumped 3 parts per million on last year to a new record high
• El Niño could push next year's peak even higher than expected
• Researchers say drastic emissions cuts, like those seen during COVID, are needed every year to keep 1.5C in sight

At Hawaii's Mauna Loa observatory, CO2 levels have broken a new record

Scientists say we need to make 'very rapid and very large' emissions cuts as atmospheric CO2 jumps to an all-time high at the Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Smurf1976]

Aboriginal people managed their land all the time, they might burn small patches every month of the year.

I'll simply say I find the politics really quite amusing.

The same side that argues for all things Aboriginal quickly dismisses them when it comes to the one thing they actually are experts on - managing the Australian bush.

 

[basilio]

I'll simply say I find the politics really quite amusing.

The same side that argues for all things Aboriginal quickly dismisses them when it comes to the one thing they actually are experts on - managing the Australian bush.

With regard to Aboriginal expertise in managing the Australian bush. There is an outstanding series on SBS on this topic. Check out the section on how the bush was effectively "farmed" and the evidence for this expertise.

1. Design To Survive​

Rob Collins and his team explore the innovative creations that enabled First Nations people to thrive, ranging from transforming volcanic terrains into fish farms to mastering the art of harnessing dangerous fire for survival.

The First Inventors

Rob Collins and a team of First Nations investigators delve into 65,000 years of Aboriginal Australian invention, looking at how landscapes were transformed, how events were recorded, the use of navigation tools, and how societies were organised.

www.sbs.com.au

 

[basilio]

We are now facing an El Nino event that will accelerate global temperatures.

El Niño: how the weather event is affecting global heating in 2023

Planet is being hit by double whammy of global heating and emerging El Niño

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

And this is how the accelerating temperatures will impact on global sea levels.

Explainer

‘It’s absolutely guaranteed’: the best and worst case scenarios for sea level rise​

Even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, ocean levels would continue to rise

Seascape: the state of our oceans is supported by

About this content
Karen McVeigh

@karenmcveigh1
Mon 26 Jun 2023 15.00 AESTLast modified on Mon 26 Jun 2023 15.15 AES


Not only is dangerous sea level rise “absolutely guaranteed”, but it will keep rising for centuries or millennia even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, experts say.

Rising seas are one of the most severe consequences of a heating climate that are already being felt.

‘It’s absolutely guaranteed’: the best and worst case scenarios for sea level rise

Even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow, ocean levels would continue to rise

www.theguardian.com