Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

Where do we stand if La Nina ends up as the default climate position for Australia ?

A recent research paper has identified that the Atlantic conveyor belt current is slowing as a result of the huge inflow of fresh meltwater from the Arctic. Has big implications world wide.

A huge Atlantic ocean current is slowing down. If it collapses, La Niña could become the norm for Australia ​

Published: June 7, 2022 6.02am AEST

Authors​

1. Matthew England
   Scientia Professor and Deputy Director of the ARC Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science (ACEAS), UNSW Sydney
2. Andréa S. Taschetto
   Associate Professor, UNSW Sydney
3. Bryam Orihuela-Pinto
   PhD Candidate, UNSW Sydney

Disclosure statement​

Matthew England receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Matthew is a Chief Investigator and Deputy Director of the ARC Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science.

Andréa S. Taschetto receives funding from the Australian Research Council. Andréa is a Chief Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and is affiliated with the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Program.

Bryam Orihuela-Pinto received a scholarship from the University of New South Wales.

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Climate change is slowing down the conveyor belt of ocean currents that brings warm water from the tropics up to the North Atlantic. Our research, published today in Nature Climate Change, looks at the profound consequences to global climate if this Atlantic conveyor collapses entirely.

We found the collapse of this system – called the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation – would shift the Earth’s climate to a more La Niña-like state. This would mean more flooding rains over eastern Australia and worse droughts and bushfire seasons over southwest United States.

East-coast Australians know what unrelenting La Niña feels like. Climate change has loaded our atmosphere with moister air, while two summers of La Niña warmed the ocean north of Australia. Both contributed to some of the wettest conditions ever experienced, with record-breaking floods in New South Wales and Queensland.

Meanwhile, over the southwest of North America, a record drought and severe bushfires have put a huge strain on emergency services and agriculture, with the 2021 fires alone estimated to have cost at least US$70 billion.

​

The oil giants, starting to edge their bets.

BP backs giant $44b green hydrogen project in country’s north-west

One of the energy supermajors taking control is a game-changer for what promises to be one of the world’s largest renewable and green hydrogen energy hubs.

www.watoday.com.au

The credibility of much-hyped green hydrogen has been boosted by BP taking a 40.5 per cent stake in a vast project between Port Hedland and Broome in the north of Western Australia.

BP has bought a 40.5 per cent stake in the Asian Renewable Energy Hub and will take control of the $US30 billion ($43.6 billion) project, designed to produce 1.6 million tonnes of green hydrogen a year from water.



AREH will be powered by about 1700 wind turbines and 25 million solar panels progressively installed over a decade, according to a project presentation in 2021.
The green hydrogen will either be exported as is, or combined with nitrogen from the air to make 9 million tonnes a year of ammonia, which is more easily transported.

BP executive vice president for gas and low carbon energy Anja-Isabel Dotzenrath said AREH will be one of the largest renewable and green hydrogen energy hubs in the world.
“It also reflects our belief that Australia has the potential to be a powerhouse in the global energy transition, benefiting from both its existing infrastructure and abundant renewable energy resources,” she said.
Dotzenrath said AREH was a cornerstone project in the British company’s quest to capture 10 per cent of the future global hydrogen market.
Green hydrogen is expected to be used as a fuel to decarbonise industries that cannot easily be switched to electricity from renewable energy, including shipping and steelmaking. The clean product could also replace existing highly polluting hydrogen and ammonia made from gas, and used to make explosives and fertilisers.
BP will operate the project on behalf of the other owners InterContinental Energy (26.4 per cent), CWP Global (17.8 per cent) and Macquarie Capital and Macquarie’s Green Investment Group (15.3 per cent).

U.K and Germany ponder their commitment to shutdown coal, as the fuel crisis continues.
https://www.mining.com/web/war-derails-plan-to-ditch-coal-after-uk-championed-global-cuts/

Efforts to get rid of dirty power are being slowed as the war hits European economies, with soaring gas and electricity prices stoking inflation and raising the spectre of recession. While peers such as Germany are also rethinking coal ahead of this winter, the change of tack by the UK in particular highlights how energy security has turned into the top political priority in such a short time for a government that was so zealous at COP26.

UK gas prices were up almost 50% last week alone. While the country only imports 4% of its gas from Russia, the market is exposed to prices in Europe where cuts to flows along a key pipeline are driving huge spikes in costs. Even environmentalists concede that higher emissions in the short term may be the cost of reducing reliance on Russian fuels in the longer term.

“We have bigger problems to worry about,” said Dave Jones, a global electricity analyst at London-based climate think tank Ember. “The government is taking some decisions — like keeping a coal power plant open — that, to some people, look like a softening on fossil fuels. To me, it looks like a rational short-term decision to help keep the lights on.”

The commitment remains to end coal generation by 2024 and boost renewable sources such as wind and nuclear energy. Coal emits almost twice as much carbon as burning natural gas. The issue now, though, is timing. Operations are being extended at least at one station that would otherwise have closed. Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng has described the measure as a “sensible, precautionary step.”

The science on how Methane is responding to global warming is grim.

Methane much more sensitive to global heating than previously thought – study​

Greenhouse gas has undergone rapid acceleration and scientists say it may be due to atmospheric changes

Wildfires behind Los Angeles in 2016. An increase in wildfires may have pumped more carbon monoxide into the atmosphere and altered the chemical balance. Photograph: Ringo HW Chiu/AP

Kate Ravilious

@katerav
Tue 5 Jul 2022 06.00 BST



Methane is four times more sensitive to global warming than previously thought, a new study shows. The result helps to explain the rapid growth in methane in recent years and suggests that, if left unchecked, methane related warming will escalate in the decades to come.

The growth of this greenhouse gas – which over a 20 year timespan is more than 80 times as potent than carbon dioxide – had been slowing since the turn of the millennium but since 2007 has undergone a rapid rise, with measurements from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recording it passing 1,900 parts a billion last year, nearly triple pre-industrial levels.

“What has been particularly puzzling has been the fact that methane emissions have been increasing at even greater rates in the last two years, despite the global pandemic, when anthropogenic sources were assumed to be less significant,” said Simon Redfern, an earth scientist at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore.

About 40% of methane emissions come from natural sources such as wetlands, while 60% come from anthropogenic sources such as cattle farming, fossil fuel extraction and landfill sites. Possible explanations for the rise in methane emissions range from expanding exploration of oil and natural gas, rising emissions from agriculture and landfill, and rising natural emissions as tropical wetlands warm and Arctic tundra melts.

But another explanation could be a slowdown of the chemical reaction that removes methane from the atmosphere. The predominant way in which methane is “mopped up” is via reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH) in the atmosphere.

“The hydroxyl radical has been termed the ‘detergent’ of the atmosphere because it works to cleanse the atmosphere of harmful trace gases,” said Redfern. But hydroxyl radicals also react with carbon monoxide, and an increase in wildfires may have pumped more carbon monoxide into the atmosphere and altered the chemical balance. “On average, a carbon monoxide molecule remains in the atmosphere for about three months before it’s attacked by a hydroxyl radical, while methane persists for about a decade. So wildfires have a swift impact on using up the hydroxyl ‘detergent’ and reduce the methane removal,” said Redfern

Extreme heat waves are now hitting Europe, China and the US. The consequences are wild fires that are destroying hundreds of thousands of acres of land and housing and infrastructure, thousands of people dying from heat stress and drought undermining the stability of many regions.

Global warming is here. However we have still only reached about 1.1 C global temperature increase. What impact will a 2-3C increase in global temperature have on the liveability of our cities ?

basilio said:

Extreme heat waves are now hitting Europe, China and the US. The consequences are wild fires that are destroying hundreds of thousands of acres of land and housing and infrastructure, thousands of people dying from heat stress and drought undermining the stability of many regions.

Global warming is here. However we have still only reached about 1.1 C global temperature increase. What impact will a 2-3C increase in global temperature have on the liveability of our cities ?

World of Change: Global Temperatures

The average global temperature has increased by a little more than 1° Celsius (2° Fahrenheit) since 1880. Two-thirds of the warming has occurred since 1975.

earthobservatory.nasa.gov

Extreme heat around the world in videos, photos and graphics

From wildfires to glacier collapses, a flurry of extreme heat events have led to deaths and disrupted lives since the start of the month

www.theguardian.com

Thousands evacuated as wildfires sweep across western Europe

People ordered to leave homes in France and on Costa del Sol while Portugal says heatwave has killed 238 so far

www.theguardian.com

UK declares national emergency: Red ‘extreme heat’ warning issued

A red ‘extreme heat’ warning has been issued for parts of UK with temperatures expected to soar to record levels next week, with a top of 40C forecast in London on Tuesday.

www.skynews.com.au

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As I've said on numerous occasions Bas, global warming is unstoppable, because when humans find a way to mitigate their thermal footprint, they will find new ways off increasing it to take up the slack they have made by their reductions.
We will find new technologies that use more power consumption to run, like we have moved on from DVD's to streaming, which uses heaps more power, we are making bitcoins that use heaps more power, we have gone from one T.V per house to probably 5 and 3 P.C's and two tablets and four mobile phones.
Eventually we will become extinct and it will all start again. ?

Live updates: Tanya Plibersek delivers State of the Environment address following 'shocking' climate report

Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek will address the National Press Club following a five-yearly report into Australia's climate, which she has described as "shocking."

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sptrawler said:

As I've said on numerous occasions Bas, global warming is unstoppable, because when humans find a way to mitigate their thermal footprint, they will find new ways off increasing it to take up the slack they have made by their reductions.
We will find new technologies that use more power consumption to run, like we have moved on from DVD's to streaming, which uses heaps more power, we are making bitcoins that use heaps more power, we have gone from one T.V per house to probably 5 and 3 P.C's and two tablets and four mobile phones.
Eventually we will become extinct and it will all start again. ?

Click to expand...

I think the worst aspect to it is that the biggest populated countries , India and China will aspire to the same standard of living as we in the West enjoy, and they won't be keen on being told that they can't have the same standard of living as the West.

They will expect us to cut back while they plough ahead with ever increasing consumption.

Inevitably that will lead to a worse situation.

I've listed the different pillars of climate change denial tropes.

The last is we can't do anything about it because ..... so we shouldn't try.
...and anyone, especially young people who say we need to act as we are going to have to live this are called suitable names such as....hysterical, suffering cognitive dissonance, ... anything else that helps justify no action.

Anyway temperature record smashed on London.

SirRumpole said:

I think the worst aspect to it is that the biggest populated countries , India and China will aspire to the same standard of living as we in the West enjoy, and they won't be keen on being told that they can't have the same standard of living as the West.

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Humans are akin to the mice who just happened to stumble across an abandoned grain silo that was left full of grain.

A massive population explosion but it's ultimately unsustainable.

Plus we've made it worse by making products designed to fail and by generally doing everything in the cheapest, easiest way possible.

Knobby22 said:

I've listed the different pillars of climate change denial tropes.

The last is we can't do anything about it because ..... so we shouldn't try.
...and anyone, especially young people who say we need to act as we are going to have to live this are called suitable names such as....hysterical, suffering cognitive dissonance, ... anything else that helps justify no action.

Anyway temperature record smashed on London.

Click to expand...

The ultimate climate change denial is living like y'all do. Running around in circles virtue signalling, is going to do squat.

wayneL said:

The ultimate climate change denial is living like y'all do. Running around in circles virtue signalling, is going to do squat.

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Little things like living in a mud hut and going Pol Pot aint going to make any difference coz people are people and there are a lot of them and some will still order Perrier water and do whatever they want to, which is fair enough.

Individual action is bullsht. Electric cars are pointless without a grid fed from renewables and nuclear energy.

We need nation actions.

Knobby22 said:

Little things like living in a mud hut and going Pol Pot aint going to make any difference coz people are people and there are a lot of them and some will still order Perrier water and do whatever they want to, which is fair enough.

Individual action is bullsht. Electric cars are pointless without a grid fed from renewables and nuclear energy.

We need nation actions.

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Such as?

wayneL said:

Such as?

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Grid fed from renewables and nuclear energy.

Knobby22 said:

Grid fed from renewables and nuclear energy.

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Agree with nuclear as long as it's fusion.

Say in 30 years time ?

Knobby22 said:

Grid fed from renewables and nuclear energy.

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Yep nuclear seems a no brainer to me. Hydro and geothermal if possible. Wind and solar a waste of time IMO.

wayneL said:

Yep nuclear seems a no brainer to me. Hydro and geothermal if possible. Wind and solar a waste of time IMO.

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Geothermal must be tricky. The government blew a fair bit on one project that didn't work.

SirRumpole said:

Agree with nuclear as long as it's fusion.

Say in 30 years time ?

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The Greens in Finland recently went pro nuclear. If you are in a country with little sunlight and lousy weather then it's really all you can do.

I've put some capital behind this future. We shall see.

There's another issue - it's that people are being asked to sacrifice today to prevent effects that won't be seen for another generation. People just can't reason on such timescales. Evolution optimized us for solving problems on the seconds to hours scale, and then agriculture on problem solving on a single year scale. After that, we have nothing.