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Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

Apparently if you take out the stopping of land clearing the number isn't down by 20% by up by 7%.
That's interesting when you think about, the car manufacturing, the coal generating plant, petrol refineries etc being closed and the renewables that have been installed both roof top and large scale.
I wonder what the main contributor is, that has increased that much, to offset those reductions.
 
In one month , just one month alone, there have been a series of fire and flood catastrophes around the world that were accelerated by global heating.

The 4 minute video clip in this story pulls them together.

The IPCC report is clear: nothing short of transforming society will avert catastrophe

Patrick Vallance


Achieving net zero will require action from everyone – and a renewed emphasis on science and innovation
  • Patrick Vallance is the UK government chief scientific adviser
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A wildfire in Sakha, Russia, on 8 August 2021. Photograph: Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
Mon 9 Aug 2021 21.43 AEST
Last modified on Tue 10 Aug 2021 07.36 AEST

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...g-society-avert-catastrophe-net-zero#comments
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The release today of the first part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s sixth assessment report makes for stark reading. It reaffirms that anthropogenic climate change is real, present and lasting: it is now unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land to an unprecedented degree, with effects almost certain to worsen through the coming decades.

The report also dispels any notion that the effects of the climate crisis are abstract or distant. Extreme events are being felt across the world, from wildfires in Australia, Sweden and north-west America to heatwaves in Siberia and Canada and the devastating drought in South Africa. Evidence has grown since the last assessment report that human activity has exacerbated extreme weather events. Without urgent action, such events will continue to get worse. Moreover, sea levels are projected to rise over this century. Rises of as much as 2m cannot be ruled out, leaving low-lying lands and coastal communities extremely vulnerable.

 
Best we get onto China ASAP.
From the article:
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China put 38.4 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity into operation in 2020, according to new international research, more than three times the amount built elsewhere around the world and potentially undermining its short-term climate goals.

The country won praise last year after President Xi Jinping pledged to make the country “carbon neutral” by 2060. But regulators have since come under fire for failing to properly control the coal power sector, a major source of climate-warming greenhouse gas.

Including decommissions, China’s coal-fired fleet capacity rose by a net 29.8 GW in 2020, even as the rest of the world made cuts of 17.2 GW, according to research released on Wednesday by Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a U.S. think tank, and the Helsinki-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA).

The runaway expansion of coal-fired power is driven by electricity companies’ and local governments’ interest in maximising investment spending, more than a real need for new capacity,” said Lauri Myllyvirta, CREA lead analyst.



The country’s National Energy Administration (NEA) didn’t immediately respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW. It now has 247 GW of coal power under development, enough to supply the whole of Germany.
 
The west is leading the charge, it appears to be that the Glasgow climate talks could be where plans are laid on the table, at the moment there appears to be a lot of talk and not much detail.
From the article:
Calls to abandon coal have been renewed as world leaders respond to the new United Nations climate report that warns the world remains on track for devastating global warming this century.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, whose government will host the November COP26 climate talks in Glasgow, described the report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as “sobering reading” and said he hoped it spurred governments to greater action before the meeting.
“We know what must be done to limit global warming - consign coal to history and shift to clean energy sources, protect nature and provide climate finance for countries on the frontline,” he said.

Nonetheless, Britain’s Labour Party criticised Mr Johnson’s government saying its target of reducing the country’s carbon emissions by 68 per cent of 1990 levels by 2030 was not ambitious enough.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the report reaffirmed his view that the federal government’s approach to drive down emissions by supporting clean energy technology development was a suitable policy option for Australia and the world.
He did not say if Australia would update its ambition to reduce carbon emissions by 26 to 28 per cent of 2005 levels before the Glasgow talks, but said that having already reduced emissions by 20 per cent Australia had already demonstrated that it was part of the solution.

“Australia’s record of reducing emissions stands above those who are claiming to achieve bigger things in the future, but haven’t achieved it to date,” he said.
 
That's interesting when you think about, the car manufacturing, the coal generating plant, petrol refineries etc being closed and the renewables that have been installed both roof top and large scale.
I wonder what the main contributor is, that has increased that much, to offset those reductions.


Haven't got it at hand but Labours carbon tax ironically did most of the other heavy lifting that Morrison keeps claiming how we are ahead of everyone else saying he wont use tax as a method.

We will be OK as Barnaby is going to build a nuclear power station. :oops:
 
Haven't got it at hand but Labours carbon tax ironically did most of the other heavy lifting that Morrison keeps claiming how we are ahead of everyone else saying he wont use tax as a method.

We will be OK as Barnaby is going to build a nuclear power station. :oops:
Yes, I need to look into it further, but just in W.A, there seems to have been a lot of closures of heavy plant and a lot of new renewable plant been put in, so it would be interesting to find out where they get their figures from.
In W.A recently, we have closed down 2x 200 and 2x 120 and 4 x 60 MW steam turbines that could burn coal, also there are 2 x 200MW coal fired units to be closed in the next couple of years and I haven't seen a huge amount of industry being built in W.A.
Add to that the 222MW wind and the 132MW solar farm out near Merredin, the 100MW wind and solar emu plains farm at Badingarra, plus the 1.6GW of rooftop solar and I really struggle to see how we haven't changed our carbon footprint.

With regard nuclear, if we can't get enough solar/wind generation and long term storage, to supply a reliable grid, nuclear will have to be considered.
So it really will be self resolving, if it can be done with renewables and suitable storage it will be, if it can't, it can't, simple really. :2twocents
You can't run a first world society, without a reliable electricity supply.
 
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With regard nuclear, if we can't get enough solar/wind generation and long term storage, to supply a reliable grid, nuclear will have to be considered.

Seems to be the only solution as other technology isn't mature enough to replace 24/7 coal and gas.
 
Seems to be the only solution as other technology isn't mature enough to replace 24/7 coal and gas.
It is possible with renewables, but you need a hell of a lot of it, rule of thumb that I've heard is.
To replace at call generation with intermittent renewables, requires twice as much renewable generation as installed at call generation and three times as much storage as installed at call generation.
So the two things that spring to mind from that equation are, a lot of renewable generation is going to be used to recharge storage and the rest will be supplying the load, they wont be owned by the same company. So one will be paid on generation only, the other will have to pay to be charged, then charge the retailer when discharging.
Well what happens if they aren't required, everything is charged and the wind is blowing the sun shining. So at the moment everyone wants to build renewable generation, because it is cheap to build and run when compared to coal/gas, no one wants to build long term storage, it is going to be interesting when the coal and gas is shut down and the renewables compete with each other. There would be a lot of idle capacity.
Secondly it will take a long time to build sufficient storage, batteries are one thing, but long term storage that can run for several days, will be pumped hydro dams and in the case of the east Coast big dams. They will take a long time and a lot of money to build, not to mention the environmental and cultural issues. :2twocents

My guess is the point will be reached where renewable energy reaches saturation point, at that point wherever it is, some decisions will have to be made as to what technology fills the firming capacity role.
 
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Seems to be the only solution as other technology isn't mature enough to replace 24/7 coal and gas.

If you go nuclear weapons then nuclear power becomes viable cost wise (sort of) still massive lead time plus to avoid sovereign risk require technology for fuel processing.

If you just go nuclear power then processing fuel / technology / engineering / lead times are still massive then there's not in my back yard problem.

Renewables its all a known engineering wise, available, cheaper (including building dams etc) with sorter lead times no sovereign risk with technology issues.
 
If you go nuclear weapons then nuclear power becomes viable cost wise (sort of) still massive lead time plus to avoid sovereign risk require technology for fuel processing.

If you just go nuclear power then processing fuel / technology / engineering / lead times are still massive then there's not in my back yard problem.

Renewables its all a known engineering wise, available, cheaper (including building dams etc) with sorter lead times no sovereign risk with technology issues.
Very true IFocus, as I said IMO it will become self resolving, at the moment renewables are a mile ahead of second place on all metrics.
 
Europe is expanding its grid to accommodate increasing shares of renewables, including international DC connectivity, and has nothing the scale of Snowy 2.0.
The USA has no Snowy2.0 in the pipeline either as it expands into renewables, as they increasingly require new projects to to have significant battery backup and are also smart enough to harvest curtailed energy.
Comes down to what the objective is.

Neither Europe nor the USA are presently planning to go fully renewable. They're planning to go more renewable but they're not doing it so that it scales to 100%.

Hence the massive new investment in natural gas supply to Europe, the ramping up of gas in the US and so on. Nord Stream 2, with the capacity to supply an additional 55 billion cubic metres of gas annually, isn't being built without confidence that the future involves more gas not less.

Where the likes of Snowy 2.0 comes in is if, hypothetically, we wanted to go 100% renewable.

Here's a full year's worth of wind and solar generation for Victoria:

1628689716260.png


Look closely at the winter months and note that, assuming a shift from fossil fuels to electricity for heating, that's the time when consumption will be highest.

Doing that without bulk storage in some form, storage that can be discharged on multiple consecutive days without recharging, and some serious interstate transmission capacity is hugely problematic. Not impossible but it would take massive overbuilding to get those very low days' production up to match demand, noting that demand is set to rise not fall as the direct use of fossil fuels shifts to electricity.

What happened there at the beginning of July isn't a freak occurrence, there's been at least one equivalent scenario each year for as long as we've had significant wind and solar in the grid so it's likely to keep happening. For that matter look closely at June this year, or late April 2021, October 2020 or August 2020 and it's much the same. Multiple consecutive days of very poor wind and solar yield.

The EU and USA solution to that problem is to burn natural gas. That being Russian natural gas in the EU's case hence the politics with the US around it.

Those advocating Snowy 2.0 and similar projects are essentially advocating the use of stored renewable energy to fill those gaps rather than using gas.

Personally I'm firmly in the latter camp that going fully renewable is what we ought to be doing but I'm also well aware it won't actually happen, at least not within my lifetime. In practice it looks like we'll build as much bulk storage as the political process can deliver and fill the rest with open cycle gas turbines and perhaps a few large internal combustion plants running on a mix of local natural gas, imported LNG and diesel.

That's what the private players with $ billions are backing and realistically they're not likely to blow their money, gas isn't going away anytime soon.

My own view for the record could be summarised as:

Do not build new fossil fuel power generating capacity.

Electrify everything in an orderly manner. Eg I'm not suggesting we ban petrol cars but let's get new ones to be electric ASAP, thus bringing an orderly demise of petrol. Same concept with everything where technology permits the adoption of an electrically powered solution.

Don't put renewable energy infrastructure in places where it's going to harm endangered species or destroy unique environments etc. The principle being to avoid impacts of significance that can't be reversed at a later time.

If the land involved is generic and of no unique value and/or if the impact is readily reversible then quite simply we have to accept that some environmental impact from building renewable energy infrastructure is unavoidable, we can't say no to everything, and just get on and build it for the greater good. If society a century from now needs to dismantle some by then obsolete infrastructure and plant some common trees or grasses on the land in order to return it to natural condition well that's a pretty minor problem for us to be handing them versus cooking the planet.

Acknowledged that others will have different priorities but my own view is firmly that the need to reduce emissions is more important than any other impact if it's reversible. Only if the other impact is irreversible, for example nuclear waste or impacts on endangered species, is there anything to debate in my personal view. :2twocents
 
Comes down to what the objective is.

Neither Europe nor the USA are presently planning to go fully renewable. They're planning to go more renewable but they're not doing it so that it scales to 100%.

Hence the massive new investment in natural gas supply to Europe, the ramping up of gas in the US and so on. Nord Stream 2, with the capacity to supply an additional 55 billion cubic metres of gas annually, isn't being built without confidence that the future involves more gas not less.

Where the likes of Snowy 2.0 comes in is if, hypothetically, we wanted to go 100% renewable.

Here's a full year's worth of wind and solar generation for Victoria:

View attachment 128886

Look closely at the winter months and note that, assuming a shift from fossil fuels to electricity for heating, that's the time when consumption will be highest.

Doing that without bulk storage in some form, storage that can be discharged on multiple consecutive days without recharging, and some serious interstate transmission capacity is hugely problematic. Not impossible but it would take massive overbuilding to get those very low days' production up to match demand, noting that demand is set to rise not fall as the direct use of fossil fuels shifts to electricity.

What happened there at the beginning of July isn't a freak occurrence, there's been at least one equivalent scenario each year for as long as we've had significant wind and solar in the grid so it's likely to keep happening. For that matter look closely at June this year, or late April 2021, October 2020 or August 2020 and it's much the same. Multiple consecutive days of very poor wind and solar yield.

The EU and USA solution to that problem is to burn natural gas. That being Russian natural gas in the EU's case hence the politics with the US around it.

Those advocating Snowy 2.0 and similar projects are essentially advocating the use of stored renewable energy to fill those gaps rather than using gas.

Personally I'm firmly in the latter camp that going fully renewable is what we ought to be doing but I'm also well aware it won't actually happen, at least not within my lifetime. In practice it looks like we'll build as much bulk storage as the political process can deliver and fill the rest with open cycle gas turbines and perhaps a few large internal combustion plants running on a mix of local natural gas, imported LNG and diesel.

That's what the private players with $ billions are backing and realistically they're not likely to blow their money, gas isn't going away anytime soon.

My own view for the record could be summarised as:

Do not build new fossil fuel power generating capacity.

Electrify everything in an orderly manner. Eg I'm not suggesting we ban petrol cars but let's get new ones to be electric ASAP, thus bringing an orderly demise of petrol. Same concept with everything where technology permits the adoption of an electrically powered solution.

Don't put renewable energy infrastructure in places where it's going to harm endangered species or destroy unique environments etc. The principle being to avoid impacts of significance that can't be reversed at a later time.

If the land involved is generic and of no unique value and/or if the impact is readily reversible then quite simply we have to accept that some environmental impact from building renewable energy infrastructure is unavoidable, we can't say no to everything, and just get on and build it for the greater good. If society a century from now needs to dismantle some by then obsolete infrastructure and plant some common trees or grasses on the land in order to return it to natural condition well that's a pretty minor problem for us to be handing them versus cooking the planet.

Acknowledged that others will have different priorities but my own view is firmly that the need to reduce emissions is more important than any other impact if it's reversible. Only if the other impact is irreversible, for example nuclear waste or impacts on endangered species, is there anything to debate in my personal view. :2twocents
Our renewables market is immature and planning remains fragmented as State agendas override any sense of a national context.
We don't have an east coast grid structure capable of balancing State supply variability if renewables increased markedly, and what I see ahead remains piecemeal.
I share your summary position, however, believe that transition can be very different. For example, our present gas pipeline infrastructure could easily mix in and later be converted to green hydrogen. But I will leave it at that here as it's not the right thread.
 
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It is what it is, they should have gone for a better, more thought out look.
What other observation could one make? I'm just stating the obvious, don't shoot the messenger.
Like I said they are probably well intended, but it isn't a good look, same as protest marches that turn to looting sprees.
I think the young people have to put some thought into how they get their message across.
Maybe if they used social media, to name and shame appliances with a low efficiency rating, placards with messages that actually enlighten people etc.
I'm not criticising what they are saying, I'm criticising how they choose to say it, but as usual any criticism is unacceptable. Unless it is coming from, or directed at certain quarters.
Here you are SP. The polite CC protester who Scomo listens to.
Check out her story and share your thoughts.

‘I’m listening to her’: meet Scott Morrison’s favourite climate change protester

Frances, who stands near Parliament House in a Pokémon onesie with placards, says prime minister must ‘do whatever it takes’ to make a difference
5315.jpg

Climate protestor Frances waves to passing traffic at the entrance to Parliament House. She says she always waves at Scott Morrison: ‘He waves, I think, but I can’t always tell because of the dark window.’ Photograph: Mike Bowers/The Guardian

Daniel Hurst

@danielhurstbne
Thu 12 Aug 2021 03.30 AEST


Meet Frances. She’s a Canberra-based IT worker, a mother of two, and is on her way to becoming the new poster child for the climate action movement.

It seems Frances now has the ear of Scott Morrison after she was singled out by the prime minister this week as a positive example of peaceful protest.

The praise came after he denounced Extinction Rebellion activists who vandalised Parliament House on Tuesday.
Morrison was referring to the “foolishness” of numerous activists who spray painted “Climate Duty of Care” on the walls of the Parliament House and his Canberra residence – the Lodge – and superglued themselves to the ground, in the wake of a major new scientific report that underlined the urgency of the climate crisis. Police arrested eight people.
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Scott Morrison walks back ‘end the weekend’ rhetoric on electric vehicles
Read more
By contrast, it was Frances’ calm, peaceful manner that caught Morrison’s eye.

“That is not the way we go forward,” Morrison said, referring to the spray painting activists, before offering up the story of Frances – “a woman that I wave to almost every morning when I come into this building, as I drive up”.

“She’s there almost every morning and she makes this point every day, and she gives me a wave and she gives me a smile,” Morrison said. “I’ll tell you what, I’m listening to her.”

 
@basilio my guess is people are going to be in for a shock, I may be wrong but reading all the information I can on what Australia is doing, I think we are a lot further down the track than people are being told or realise.
Time will tell.
With regard the elderly lady in the photo, good on her, she certainly is getting a better response, than the girl burning a pram IMO. Or the old bloke the other day, spray painting graffiti, that tax payers are going to have to pay for the removal.
 
@basilio my guess is people are going to be in for a shock, I may be wrong but reading all the information I can on what Australia is doing, I think we are a lot further down the track than people are being told or realise.
Time will tell.
Interesting observation. Do you want to share the analysis/information that leads you to that idea ?
 
Interesting observation. Do you want to share the analysis/information that leads you to that idea ?
I've done that endlessly, I did one yesterday, I have been explaining why trails with BEV's have to be done etc, but alas to no avail.
Half the problem when dealing with fanatics, is they don't want to hear anything, the real fun is in being fanatical.
Like I've said I think Albo will need to be well versed in whatever plan he has, because he will be questioned, whereas I'm sure the Govt will roll out a plan before the upcoming election. :2twocents
 
An interesting article on clothing, the part that caught my attention other than the mountain of clothes in Africa, was the statistics on clothing.
Meanwhile people march and glue themselves to the floor, well worth a read.


Since 2000, global production of clothing has doubled.
We’re buying 60 per cent more clothes now than we did 15 years ago.
But we’re only keeping them for half as long.

A major survey in the UK six years ago found one in three young women considered garments “old” if they had been worn just twice.
An estimated 85 per cent of all textiles go to the dump every year, according to the World Economic Forum, enough to fill Sydney Harbour annually.


Globally, that’s the equivalent of one garbage truck of textiles being burned or going into landfill every second.
These problems have only accelerated with the advent of so-called “fast fashion” — cheap, low-quality clothes produced quickly to respond to changing trends. Where brands once had two fashion seasons a year, many now produce 52 micro-seasons, flooding the market with new styles.

H&M, Zara and Boohoo are among those brands rolling out new fashion lines within days. Boohoo, for example, has more than 36,000 products available at any one time. Three years ago, the company was castigated in the British Parliament for selling five-pound items of such low quality that charity shops were unwilling to resell them.

With factories incentivised to maintain around-the-clock operations, the world’s major fashion houses factor into their budgets huge waste margins. In 2018, Burberry attracted a storm of criticism when it revealed it had destroyed $50 million of stock. The same year, H&M reported an unsold global inventory worth more than $5 billion.
Equally, she believes consumers are “somewhat complicit”. “We have decided that convenience is a human right and we think that when we go shopping we should always be able to find exactly what we want,” she said. “We should find it in our size and the colour that we want. That also contributes to this overproduction.”

Australia, with clothing retail sales in 2020 of about $22 billion, may not have the economic scale of the US or the UK, where combined the industry turned over $468 billion in the same period. But on a per capita basis, Australia is the highest consumer of textiles anywhere in the world outside of the US.

When these clothes fall out of favour with their owners, the vast majority of them end up in landfill. Only 7 per cent of clothes sold in Australia are classified as recycled. But it’s a dubious classification — watching the Kantamanto Market clean-up at days’ end gives its lie
.
 
My own view for the record could be summarised as:

Do not build new fossil fuel power generating capacity.

Electrify everything in an orderly manner. Eg I'm not suggesting we ban petrol cars but let's get new ones to be electric ASAP, thus bringing an orderly demise of petrol. Same concept with everything where technology permits the adoption of an electrically powered solution.

Don't put renewable energy infrastructure in places where it's going to harm endangered species or destroy unique environments etc. The principle being to avoid impacts of significance that can't be reversed at a later time.

If the land involved is generic and of no unique value and/or if the impact is readily reversible then quite simply we have to accept that some environmental impact from building renewable energy infrastructure is unavoidable, we can't say no to everything, and just get on and build it for the greater good. If society a century from now needs to dismantle some by then obsolete infrastructure and plant some common trees or grasses on the land in order to return it to natural condition well that's a pretty minor problem for us to be handing them versus cooking the planet.

Acknowledged that others will have different priorities but my own view is firmly that the need to reduce emissions is more important than any other impact if it's reversible. Only if the other impact is irreversible, for example nuclear waste or impacts on endangered species, is there anything to debate in my personal view.

Nice one Smurf. Anytime in the next 10 years sounds right:)
 
An interesting article on clothing, the part that caught my attention other than the mountain of clothes in Africa, was the statistics on clothing.
Meanwhile people march and glue themselves to the floor, well worth a read.


Since 2000, global production of clothing has doubled.
We’re buying 60 per cent more clothes now than we did 15 years ago.
But we’re only keeping them for half as long.

A major survey in the UK six years ago found one in three young women considered garments “old” if they had been worn just twice.
An estimated 85 per cent of all textiles go to the dump every year, according to the World Economic Forum, enough to fill Sydney Harbour annually.


Globally, that’s the equivalent of one garbage truck of textiles being burned or going into landfill every second.
These problems have only accelerated with the advent of so-called “fast fashion” — cheap, low-quality clothes produced quickly to respond to changing trends. Where brands once had two fashion seasons a year, many now produce 52 micro-seasons, flooding the market with new styles.

H&M, Zara and Boohoo are among those brands rolling out new fashion lines within days. Boohoo, for example, has more than 36,000 products available at any one time. Three years ago, the company was castigated in the British Parliament for selling five-pound items of such low quality that charity shops were unwilling to resell them.

With factories incentivised to maintain around-the-clock operations, the world’s major fashion houses factor into their budgets huge waste margins. In 2018, Burberry attracted a storm of criticism when it revealed it had destroyed $50 million of stock. The same year, H&M reported an unsold global inventory worth more than $5 billion.
Equally, she believes consumers are “somewhat complicit”. “We have decided that convenience is a human right and we think that when we go shopping we should always be able to find exactly what we want,” she said. “We should find it in our size and the colour that we want. That also contributes to this overproduction.”

Australia, with clothing retail sales in 2020 of about $22 billion, may not have the economic scale of the US or the UK, where combined the industry turned over $468 billion in the same period. But on a per capita basis, Australia is the highest consumer of textiles anywhere in the world outside of the US.

When these clothes fall out of favour with their owners, the vast majority of them end up in landfill. Only 7 per cent of clothes sold in Australia are classified as recycled. But it’s a dubious classification — watching the Kantamanto Market clean-up at days’ end gives its lie
.

Powerful story and well worth highlighting.
Basically points out that the issues of reducing our footprint covers a multitude of areas - all of which need to be addressed if we are going to have a sustainable future.

The direct move to renewable energy is critical and essential. But it isn't sufficient.
 
Powerful story and well worth highlighting.
Basically points out that the issues of reducing our footprint covers a multitude of areas - all of which need to be addressed if we are going to have a sustainable future.

The direct move to renewable energy is critical and essential. But it isn't sufficient.
That is the issue, we can reduce our personal footprint hugely, which in turn reduces our emissions.
For example, a friend of mine who I used to work with (he is 85, wife 83), is a very outspoken climate change supporter. He has one daughter and two grandchildren, that live about 400k's away.
Well he had a nice 3x2, but decided it was too cramped when the kids came to visit, which is about 3 times a year. So he knocks a perfectly good house over and builds a 3 story McMansion, I mean it looks like and office block and has enough undercroft parking for 8 cars, plus a lift.
Now when we are out for lunch, he goes on and on about global warming and what should be done about it, I bite my tongue they are lovely people.
 
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