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Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

Snowy 2 will always be needed, as will many, many more pumped hydro facilities, if renewables are to be the only source of generation.

Pumped hydro, hydrogen and or nuclear are the only current forms of bulk storage currently available, that can handle extended periods of low output from intermittent renewables.
You are very good at completely missing the point.
Snowy2.0 only became necessary when there was no investment in large generation projects because of policy failures.
Europe is expanding its grid to accommodate increasing shares of renewables, including international DC connectivity, and has nothing the scale of Snowy 2.0.
The USA has no Snowy2.0 in the pipeline either as it expands into renewables, as they increasingly require new projects to to have significant battery backup and are also smart enough to harvest curtailed energy.
With a decent UHVDC spine Australia could tap into massive solar/wind projects and get its nascent hydrogen plans off the ground while at the same time reducing battery backup needs. I think China has the largest and longest at over 3000km delivering 12000MW, so that's what's possible in today's world.
As to your above link, it confirms everything I have been saying.
Without a policy setting to give certainty to new commercial investment governments are having to step in. It's farcical!
 
You are very good at completely missing the point.
Snowy2.0 only became necessary when there was no investment in large generation projects because of policy failures.
Europe is expanding its grid to accommodate increasing shares of renewables,
So are we, don't be ridiculous Rob, I posted a link two days ago that the S.A to NSW interconnector has been given the go ahead.
This will alleviate a major bottleneck in the NW Victoria/ SW NSW renewable hub.

You really are flogging a dead horse Rob, maybe time to take another tack, this one isn't working well for you.

From the article:
In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year.

This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.

file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.jpg


Renewable energy capacity installations per capita. International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator., Author provided

When the Clean Energy Regulator accredited Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its Renewable Energy Target well ahead of schedule.
 
So are we, don't be ridiculous Rob, I posted a link two days ago that the S.A to NSW interconnector has been given the go ahead.
This will alleviate a major bottleneck in the NW Victoria/ SW NSW renewable hub.

You really are flogging a dead horse Rob, maybe time to take another tack, this one isn't working well for you.

From the article:
In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year.

This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.

View attachment 125411

Renewable energy capacity installations per capita. International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator., Author provided

When the Clean Energy Regulator accredited Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its Renewable Energy Target well ahead of schedule.
Apart from being the wrong thread, you again missed my points.
The interconnector you linked to does not solve the national problems of a grid not properly configured to renewable uptake.
How about you point out the coalition's policies that are leading to commercial investment decisions which are so good they had to invest in Snowy2.0 and Kurri Kurri!
Or, rather than pointing out the obvious about our renewables uptake show us where Morrison's mob is committed to facilitating it adequately.
The only dead horse here is buried with the coalitions inability to commit to policies that counter climate change.
 
Rob you are the one that keeps bringing up Europe, the U.S and the U.K, I was just posting a comparison of the renewable growth.

I'll post it again, obviously it didn't take the first time, Australia is installing renewables 10 times faster than the world average.

There is no reason for government incentives and or policies to increase the renewable installations, it is already being installed faster than the infrastructure can keep up with.

As you and Bas keep saying renewables are half the capital cost to install and a fraction of the cost to run, so there is a backlog of projects wanting to raid the base load of coal generators.

As you know but refuse to admit, the private sector are reluctant to install at call generation and the banks are reluctant to finance it, so it will be the government who has to fund firming capacity, which will be required until there is sufficient renewables to not require at call generation.

As for Snowy2, the private sector wouldn't even dream of a project of that cost, complexity and environmental issues, but again you are well aware of that and are scratching round for content.

Add to the massive amount of renewables being installed on the East Coast, the 100GW of renewables being installed in W.A by 2030 and Australia is mitigating its carbon footprint quite successfully without taxpayer incentives and or Federal Government policies .

I think the taxpayer has enough to fund repaying last years Jobkeeper and jobseeker payments, without burdening them with subsidising renewables, which already have a price advantage anyway, so will continue to thrive as old generators become more and more uncompetitive.

I'll add more clarification from the article.
https://theconversation.com/austral...eader-in-building-new-renewable-energy-123694
From the article:
In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year.

This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.

file-20190918-187974-8j0coj.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.jpg


Renewable energy capacity installations per capita. International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator., Author provided

When the Clean Energy Regulator accredited Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its Renewable Energy Target well ahead of schedule.

Record renewable energy installation rates

While other analyses have pointed out that investment dollars in renewable energy fell in 2019, actual generation capacity has risen. Reductions in building costs may be contributing, as less investment will buy you more capacity.

Last year was a record year for renewable energy installations, with 5.1 gigawatts (GW) accredited in 2018, far exceeding the previous record of 2.2GW in 2017.

The increase was driven by the dramatic rise of large-scale solar farms, which comprised half of the new-build capacity accredited in 2018. There was a tenfold increase in solar farm construction from 2017.

We have projected the remaining builds for 2019 and those for 2020, based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator for public firm announcements for projects.

A project is considered firm if it has a power purchase agreement (PPA, a contract to sell the energy generated), has reached financial close, or is under construction. We assume six months for financial close and start of construction after a long-term supply contract is signed, and 12 or 18 months for solar farm or wind farm construction, respectively.

This year is on track to be another record year, with 6.5GW projected to be complete by the end of 2019
.
 
Last edited:
Rob you are the one that keeps bringing up Europe, the U.S and the U.K, I was just posting a comparison of the renewable growth.

I'll post it again, obviously it didn't take the first time, Australia is installing renewables 10 times faster than the world average.

There is no reason for government incentives and or policies to increase the renewable installations, it is already being installed faster than the infrastructure can keep up with.

As you and Bas keep saying renewables are half the capital cost to install and a fraction of the cost to run, so there is a backlog of projects wanting to raid the base load of coal generators.

As you know but refuse to admit, the private sector are reluctant to install at call generation and the banks are reluctant to finance it, so it will be the government who has to fund firming capacity, which will be required until there is sufficient renewables to not require at call generation.

As for Snowy2, the private sector wouldn't even dream of a project of that cost, complexity and environmental issues, but again you are well aware of that and are scratching round for content.

Add to the massive amount of renewables being installed on the East Coast, the 100GW of renewables being installed in W.A by 2030 and Australia is mitigating its carbon footprint quite successfully without taxpayer incentives and or Federal Government policies .

I think the taxpayer has enough to fund repaying last years Jobkeeper and jobseeker payments, without burdening them with subsidising renewables, which already have a price advantage anyway, so will continue to thrive as old generators become more and more uncompetitive.

I'll add more clarification from the article.
https://theconversation.com/austral...eader-in-building-new-renewable-energy-123694
From the article:
In Australia, renewable energy is growing at a per capita rate ten times faster than the world average. Between 2018 and 2020, Australia will install more than 16 gigawatts of wind and solar, an average rate of 220 watts per person per year.

This is nearly three times faster than the next fastest country, Germany. Australia is demonstrating to the world how rapidly an industrialised country with a fossil-fuel-dominated electricity system can transition towards low-carbon, renewable power generation.

View attachment 125424

Renewable energy capacity installations per capita. International capacity data for 2018 from the International Renewable Energy Agency. Australian data from the Clean Energy Regulator., Author provided

When the Clean Energy Regulator accredited Tasmania’s 148.5 megawatt (MW) Cattle Hill Wind Farm in August, Australia met its Renewable Energy Target well ahead of schedule.

Record renewable energy installation rates

While other analyses have pointed out that investment dollars in renewable energy fell in 2019, actual generation capacity has risen. Reductions in building costs may be contributing, as less investment will buy you more capacity.

Last year was a record year for renewable energy installations, with 5.1 gigawatts (GW) accredited in 2018, far exceeding the previous record of 2.2GW in 2017.

The increase was driven by the dramatic rise of large-scale solar farms, which comprised half of the new-build capacity accredited in 2018. There was a tenfold increase in solar farm construction from 2017.

We have projected the remaining builds for 2019 and those for 2020, based on data from the Clean Energy Regulator for public firm announcements for projects.

A project is considered firm if it has a power purchase agreement (PPA, a contract to sell the energy generated), has reached financial close, or is under construction. We assume six months for financial close and start of construction after a long-term supply contract is signed, and 12 or 18 months for solar farm or wind farm construction, respectively.

This year is on track to be another record year, with 6.5GW projected to be complete by the end of 2019
.
Wrong thread!
Maybe @Joe Blow can move a few of these across.
Renewable uptake is not the problem, it's integrating it.
As I stated earlier, your point was that if we reduced electricity use it would lead to lower CO2 emissions, but it's not necessarily true because by adding rooftop solar we can use more electricity while reducing CO2 emissions.
I keep saying you miss my points, so I will make them again.
The grid needs significant infrastructure investment to accommodate existing renewables, eg for distributed energy projects, and for new projects. Its not happening fast enough and sometimes not at all, and even AEMO's latest call for submissions on its 2021 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report shows a lack of understanding of the pace of developments.
You are correct about why the federal government is funding firming capacity. The private sector cannot ask its shareholders to fork out billions for new capacity when government policy is lacking. Every company has expressed a willingness to invest if there was some certainty. That's not my view, it's stated in many submissions to AEMO, and was even strongly supported by the NSW Energy Minister a year or so ago after yet another meeting where nothing was decided.
What is relevant to this thread is that without a "price on carbon" commercial investment decisions on non-renewable capacity are kamikaze missions.
Furthermore, your point on Snowy2.0 flies completely in the face of general government procurement policies. That is, detail what you want and call for tenders! It's exactly the same principle that is regularly being applied to multi billion dollar toll road construction projects.
By and large you and I agree on a lot of what is occurring.
However in regard to federal policy, I don't have to look far to find industry players with grave concerns about the direction and state of play.

On topic, our climate is significantly impacted by la nina (what we are in now) and el nino cycles. If we get a few consecutive summers of el nino then the electricity supply problems we experienced a few summers ago could pale into insignificance. Snowy2.0 will not be available in time, but distributed energy networks tapping into battery storage could be.
 
IMV the most depressing part of watching the Federal Government refusal to move quickly to an integrated renewable energy future is the reality of how quickly global heating is running out of control.

Back around 2006 climate scientists identified multiple environmental tipping points where increases in temperature created results which accelerated warming. Forget about extra CO2 making the planet warmer . The fire is now completely out of control.

The scientist are back in the news with the latest research on these tipping points. Now it turns out that reaching just one of these points can trigger a number of others. For example the mass melting of Greenland ice with the resultant rush of fresh water into the oceans can stop Gulf Stream. And on it goes.

Climate tipping points could topple like dominoes, warn scientists

Analysis shows significant risk of cascading events even at 2C of heating, with severe long-term effects

5064.jpg


A burning area of rainforest reserve in Pará state, Brazil. Much of the Amazon is close to a tipping point at which it becomes savannah, researchers have warned. Photograph: Carl de Souza/AFP/Getty Images

Damian Carrington Environment editor

@dpcarrington
Thu 3 Jun 2021 17.34 BST
Last modified on Thu 3 Jun 2021 21.29 BST


Ice sheets and ocean currents at risk of climate tipping points can destabilise each other as the world heats up, leading to a domino effect with severe consequences for humanity, according to a risk analysis.

Tipping points occur when global heating pushes temperatures beyond a critical threshold, leading to accelerated and irreversible impacts. Some large ice sheets in Antarctica are thought to already have passed their tipping points, meaning large sea-level rises in coming centuries.

The new research examined the interactions between ice sheets in West Antarctica, Greenland, the warm Atlantic Gulf Stream and the Amazon rainforest. The scientists carried out 3m computer simulations and found domino effects in a third of them, even when temperature rises were below 2C, the upper limit of the Paris agreement.

The study showed that the interactions between these climate systems can lower the critical temperature thresholds at which each tipping point is passed. It found that ice sheets are potential starting points for tipping cascades, with the Atlantic currents acting as a transmitter and eventually affecting the Amazon.

 
IMV the most depressing part of watching the Federal Government refusal to move quickly to an integrated renewable energy future is the reality of how quickly global heating is running out of control.
IMV the most depressing thing is, even if Australia shut down completely tomorrow and everyone xlucked off and left the place empty, it wouldn't make any difference to the global warming outcome.
I don't know what you are smoking Bas, but as you say, give us a toke. ?

Quote:
China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW. It now has 247 GW of coal power under development, enough to supply the whole of Germany.2 Feb 2021
 
IMV the most depressing thing is, even if Australia shut down completely tomorrow and everyone xlucked off and left the place empty, it wouldn't make any difference to the global warming outcome.
I don't know what you are smoking Bas, but as you say, give us a toke. ?

Quote:
China approved the construction of a further 36.9 GW of coal-fired capacity last year, three times more than a year earlier, bringing the total under construction to 88.1 GW. It now has 247 GW of coal power under development, enough to supply the whole of Germany.2 Feb 2021

So are you saying we do nothing ? Ignore it perhaps ? Resign our children and grand children to a world of 2040 in chaos ?

I don't try to dwell on the consequences of doing nothing - far too depressing. But I can't reach the stage of pretending there is no point.

Picking up the China quote is intriguing. In point of fact China is also moving incredibly fast with renewable energy. The CCP is well aware of the reality of global warming as well the huge air pollution problems they face. And when one reads the bigger story we can see the pressures put on local authorities to keep the lights on.

If you are interested in going beyond a one sentence statement this source gives far more detail of China's impact and the changes they are implementing. But as you rightly point out every country needs to make tackling CC a priority if we are not to become toast.



 

So are you saying we do nothing ? Ignore it perhaps ? Resign our children and grand children to a world of 2040 in chaos ?

I don't try to dwell on the consequences of doing nothing - far too depressing. But I can't reach the stage of pretending there is no point.

Picking up the China quote is intriguing. In point of fact China is also moving incredibly fast with renewable energy. The CCP is well aware of the reality of global warming as well the huge air pollution problems they face. And when one reads the bigger story we can see the pressures put on local authorities to keep the lights on.

If you are interested in going beyond a one sentence statement this source gives far more detail of China's impact and the changes they are implementing. But as you rightly point out every country needs to make tackling CC a priority if we are not to become toast.



Not at all, as I have posted we are putting in renewables faster than anywhere else and if the 100GW of renewable hydrogen is installed in W.A we will well and truly be leading the pack.
What I'm saying is we shouldn't be mis informing our children and scaring them to death, they have enough mental anguish these days, without the adults running around like chooks with their heads chopped of.
That doesn't help anyone.
 
Record temperatures in the US.


um, not fun .....spesh for the elderly on the standard american diet
 
This probably sums up the situation with many people owning high rise apartments on beach frontages - and not just in Miami.


A high-profile group of Noosa residents is currently fighting the local council's plan to prepare for sea-level rise, saying this climate action will hurt property prices and insurance costs.

"You've got short-term versus a long-term interest," Dr Mallon said.


"The long-term self-interest says I should protect my property, but the short-term says these warnings on my sales certificate will devalue my property."


 
This probably sums up the situation with many people owning high rise apartments on beach frontages - and not just in Miami.


A high-profile group of Noosa residents is currently fighting the local council's plan to prepare for sea-level rise, saying this climate action will hurt property prices and insurance costs.

"You've got short-term versus a long-term interest," Dr Mallon said.






The cat's out of the bag on that one I'm afraid. Anyone with a brain is going to be careful about buying property on the beach front especially after news items of houses disappearing down cliffs.

 
The cat's out of the bag on that one I'm afraid. Anyone with a brain is going to be careful about buying property on the beach front especially after news items of building disappearing down cliffs.


One would think so.. But I'm not so sure.

I think the real economic crisis is with the high rise apartments blocks off the Australia coast . Noosa, Surfers Paradise and so on. I'd be concerned about

1) The scores of highrises built in the early 80's . What is their condition now ?
2) The effect of sea water seepage into the foundations of these structures. Has anyone looked ?
3) The reality that these huge investments are driven by developers and Real Estate agents who also hold strong sway on local Councils.

And these blocks are still being built and sold . Plenty of high cost beach side developments to be had.
 
Last edited:
Small Canadian town at 50C latitude reaches 121 F . WTF ?? :eek:

How did a small town in Canada become one of the hottest places on Earth?

Eric Holthaus

The unprecedented heatwave in the Pacific north-west risks becoming the new normal if we don’t act now

7646.jpg

‘People rest at the Oregon Convention Center cooling station in Oregon, Portland on June 28, 2021, as a heatwave moves over much of the United States’ Photograph: Kathryn Elsesser/AFP/Getty Images
Wed 30 Jun 2021 20.20 AEST
Last modified on Thu 1 Jul 2021 00.57 AEST

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On Sunday, the small mountain town of Lytton, British Columbia, became one of the hottest places in the world. Then, on Monday, Lytton got even hotter – 47.9C (118F) – hotter than it’s ever been in Las Vegas, 1,300 miles to the south. And by Tuesday, 49.6C (121F).

Lytton is at 50 deg N latitude – about the same as London. This part of the world should never get this hot. Seattle’s new all-time record of 108F, also set Monday, is hotter than it’s ever been in Miami. In Portland, the new record of 116F would beat the warmest day ever recorded in Houston by nearly 10 degrees.

This heat wave was a perfect storm long in the making. After centuries of fossil fuel burning and decades of warnings from scientists, it’s time to say it: we are in a climate emergency.

 
Well we may not have to worry about Lytton posting any more astronomical heatwave figures.
A short time after these record temperatures the whole township was wiped out by a wildfire fanned by the record heat.

‘Lytton is gone’: wildfire tears through village after record-breaking heat

Officials had little time to issue evacuation orders while dry conditions make suppressing wildfires in Canada impossible

00:45

Canada heatwave: resident films escape from wildfire as flames engulf Lytton village – video

Leyland Cecco in Toronto
Fri 2 Jul 2021 04.24 AEST
Last modified on Fri 2 Jul 2021 23.00 AEST


After three days of unrelenting heat, the people in the British Columbia village of Lytton were hoping for a modest respite.
Temperatures which had shattered longstanding national records – at one point reaching a blistering 49.6C (121.28F) – eased slightly on Wednesday, raising hopes that the worst was over.

But that same day, in the late afternoon, a wildfire tore through the settlement 153km (95 miles) north-east of Vancouver. The fire was in the town and consuming buildings so quickly that residents weren’t given advance notice to evacuate. Many were already leaving by the time the order came from the mayor at 6pm.

 
Twenty/Thirty years ago Climate Change scientists were forecasting that increases in global temperatures and in particular even larger increases in temperatures at higher latitudes would result in forest fires where few had previously occured.

Siberia again is experiencing this consequence of global heating. The addition of human chemicals to the mix is another externality of progress.

‘Airpocalypse’ hits Siberian city as heatwave sparks forest fires

Monitoring suggests toxic smoke in Yakutsk is one of world’s worst ever air pollution events
by Jonathan Watts Global environment editor

Wed 21 Jul 2021 03.02 AEST
Last modified on Wed 21 Jul 2021 11.00 AEST

A heatwave in one of the world’s coldest regions has sparked forest fires and threatened the Siberian city of Yakutsk with an “airpocalypse” of thick toxic smoke, atmospheric monitoring services have reported.

High levels of particulate matter and possibly also chemicals including ozone, benzene and hydrogen cyanide are thought likely to make this one of the world’s worst ever air pollution events.

Local authorities have warned the 320,000 residents to stay indoors to avoid choking fumes from the blazes, which are on course to break last year’s record.


 
The complete destruction of the current ecosystem in the Norther Latitudes is well underway. Where does it end ???
We could take a human focused approach and look for similar situations in areas facing extreme conditions and the effect this is having.
Perhaps floods in Europe, and now China? Fires in the US and Siberia..

Top US scientist on melting glaciers: ‘I’ve gone from being an ecologist to a coroner’

Diana Six, an entomologist studying beetles near Glacier national park in Montana, says the crisis has fundamentally changed her profession
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Clouds and rain are seen on Lake McDonald as Glacier national park opens to visitors in June 2020. Photograph: Kent Meireis/Zuma Wire/Rex/Shutterstock

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About this content
Jyoti Madhusoodanan
Wed 21 Jul 2021 18.00 AEST
Last modified on Wed 21 Jul 2021 18.52 AEST

Diana Six’s love of the outdoors began before she could form words, run, or collect the bugs and fungi that were precious to her as a child. A tough home life eventually led her to drop out of school and live on the streets. But biology classes in community college helped Six discover her calling in studying various forms of life. “They took me right back to how I was as a kid,” she says.
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Read more

Now an entomologist at the University of Montana, she has spent the last 30 years researching how bark beetles are decimating pine forests. But a constant, haunting depression has taken over her life. A recent trip to Glacier national park spurred her to vent some of this emotion in a tweet that went viral and resonated with many: “Glacier National Park. 97F in June. Little snow left. 75F degree water. Glaciers disappearing. That is what we hear. But the worst is what most never see.”

To Six, the climate crisis isn’t just decimating glaciers and life on Earth. It’s taking her identity with it. She recently spoke to the Guardian about her changing role on the land she loves.


“I don’t think people realize that climate change is not just a loss of ice. It’s all the stuff that’s dependent on it. The ice is really just the canary in the coalmine. To have 97, 98 degrees in Glacier national park for days on end is insane. This is not just some fluke.

“There are many years where the snow is gone so early that you just don’t see it in the mountains. And water getting that warm is absolutely devastating to fish and algae.

“Life doesn’t just deal with this. When I went up Glacier with my students a few weeks ago, the flowers were curling up. At some of the lower elevations, glacier lilies were shriveled, lupins didn’t even open. The flowers should extend for another three weeks and they’re already gone. Any insects or birds that depend upon them, like bees or hummingbirds are in trouble, their food is gone. Bird populations have just baked.

“There have been total losses of a lot of baby birds this year. You see these ospreys and eagles sitting on top of the trees in their nests and those young, they just can’t take the heat. Year after year of that and you lose your birds.

People seem to think of extinctions as some silent, painless statistic. It’s not

“People seem to think of extinctions as some silent, painless statistic. It’s not. You look at birds that can no longer find fish because they’ve moved too far off shore. They’re emaciated, they’re starving to death. We are at the point that there’s nothing untouched.
 
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