Is Global Warming becoming unstoppable?

[moXJO]

What is the impact t of China on Global Heating and, conversely, what will be the effect of Global Heating on China ?
What will be the impacts of both these events on China's neighbourbours ?

Long but excellent analysis. Check out the graphs on Chinas contribution to CO2 emissions since 2000 ( basically being the manufacturing centre for much of the worlds industrial production..)

China's Communist Party knows how to quell a restive population — but what about its environment?


It's often said that China's rise will present one of the world's greatest security challenges this century.

Key points:

• Water scarcity is one of the country's most-pressing environmental concerns
• Experts say environmental threats act as a "threat multiplier" on existing tensions
• They say China's carbon neutral pledge could also be seen as a play to take a leadership role

While China has promised the world a peaceful rise, its "wolf warrior diplomacy", fast-growing military, and territorial claim to most of the South China Sea despite having no legal basis, suggest otherwise.

But there's another, less understood consequence of China's rise — and that's to do with the enormous scale of its emissions.

Richard Smith, an author and US-based expert in Chinese history and economics, said China's rising emissions — constituting nearly a third of the global total — poses "the single biggest threat to life on Earth".

"What's uniquely dangerous about the Chinese case is that its emissions are … growing so fast that scientists tell us they could eventually doom the climate on their own regardless of what the rest of the world does," Mr Smith wrote in Foreign Policy magazine.

China's running dry, and that could spell danger for the ruling Communist Party

China has pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2060, responding to the need to drastically bring down its overwhelming share of global carbon emissions. Experts say it's also critical for the communist party's survival.

www.abc.net.au

Oh... They just realised this did they?

I suppose they won't realise China has fished out all the neighbouring territories waters with their shadow fleet. Possibly creating a huge danger for food security for many of those poorer nations. Maybe a decade from now it will become an issue.

 

[Smurf1976]

What is the impact t of China on Global Heating and, conversely, what will be the effect of Global Heating on China ?
What will be the impacts of both these events on China's neighbourbours ?

Long but excellent analysis.

I'll simply say that an assortment of engineers, people representing industry and so on have been making this same point for over 30 years now.

Had they been listened to rather than being shot down as not politically correct, far more would likely have been achieved on the issue globally than has been the case.

 

[sptrawler]

What is the impact t of China on Global Heating and, conversely, what will be the effect of Global Heating on China ?
What will be the impacts of both these events on China's neighbourbours ?

Well Bas, if they are as brilliant at not building 100 coal fired stations, as they were at stopping the corona virus, we are all saved.

But I for one will hold judgement untill I see the results, unlike others who ramp up the rhetoric, but are disappointed with the results. ?

 

[Joules MM1]

A historic event is ongoing in the #Arctic. Zack Labe

Alarm as Arctic sea ice not yet freezing at latest date on record

Delayed freeze in Laptev Sea could have knock-on effects across polar region, scientists say

www.theguardian.com

 

[basilio]

A historic event is ongoing in the #Arctic. Zack Labe

View attachment 113651

Alarm as Arctic sea ice not yet freezing at latest date on record

Delayed freeze in Laptev Sea could have knock-on effects across polar region, scientists say

www.theguardian.com

View attachment 113651

Is that graph called flatlining ?

 

[Joules MM1]

Is that graph called flatlining ?

my understanding, based on the x/y, is that each square kilometre set must have 15% observable ice with a single grid cell size* (625 km² ) to be included in the data set, i interpret that to mean, on a zero to one scale, that each (peak) season we see around 85% of the Arctic sea as frozen and then we get the thaw rate and how long that thaw rate is active prior to the next ice-flow season, so we see how long and how deep the extent of loss of flow relative to previous seasons
i interpret that to show seasons are trending faster ice loss as well as in steeper absolute loss, that's not what i am looking for so much as the recovery rate of the following season which is taking longer to recover, a slight widening, i find this an interesting phenom that the loss-rate is not equal to the input rate, which is a good thing, if they were equal and yet the seasons of loss widened then that would not be a good thing, albeit that in toto we are not trending well, this means we do have time (as a relative interpretation) to take steps to mitigate the current rate(s) of loss to recovery

the major take away is the shifting of climate impact on various regions that have to this recent century been stable, we see deep snow storms normal in Ontario now taking place in mid-north America and we'll now see larger rainfalls in Australasia followed by more lightening-struck dry periods

i'm not use to banging the climate drum as you rarely see me posting an opinion that is mine, however, i am inclined to be concerned each time i remember 7 (seven) Australian fire chiefs, all with vast experience, gather together to be interviewed, counter that we are not in "normal" weather patterns and that the lightening strikes, that caused so many fires, have pretty much been completely discounted by the current government, that we are likely to see the same pattern repeat
what i'm saying is, if you discount the science, you cannot discount on-the-ground observational evidence that is a result of transit, specifically when the observers have practised and understand how fires start, how to prevent them from starting and what practises to put in place that ensures that knowledge is conveyed to all the people who need to receive


* 1 The size of each grid cell is obtained from static reference files that are noted in the NRTSI product and GSFC product documentation. These files, psn25area_v3.dat and pss25area_v3.dat, are used when calculating the extent. Each grid cell is nominally 625 km² (25 km x 25 km), but the area of each cell is slightly different due to the curvature of the Earth and according to the polar stereographic projection that the source data are in. The area is given by multiplying the nominal grid cell size (625 km² ) by the square of the map scale at the center of the grid cell. Grid cell areas range from 382 km² to 664 km² for the Northern Hemisphere grid domain and 443 km² to 664 km² for the Southern Hemisphere grid domain. For information on this projection, see NSIDC's Polar Stereographic Projections and Grids web page.

Sea Ice Index, Version 3

nsidc.org

"..you have a group of 23 fire and emergency chiefs, who have varying views and backgrounds, they live in various areas, not all in the city and they've all come together because they're vitaly concerned for the future of our planet and of Australia, our communities are increasingly under threat from extreme weather events caused by climate change ....some people want the debate gagged because they dont have any answers ......"


over in the U.S
" for the third year in-a-row, California is a tinderbox
" when i started in this business, our seasons, especially in this region, maybe run a four good months, now,
we start in april and go almost to christmas..."

 

[basilio]

Is that graph called flatlining ?

Thanks Joules for the official analysis of the mathematical underpinnings of the ice cover graph.
Actually, I was making a dark joke about flatlining as in dead... on a patient readout in IC.☹

The concerns raised by Australian Fire Fighters, US fire fighters (not to mention Russian, Swedish, etc ect ) simply reiforce what Cliamte Scientsits have been saying decades - the climate is getting relentlessly hotter; the consequences in terms of fire risk, drought, crop and environment destruction and human survival are obvious.

Unfortunately we can't just have a National Vote to change this reality.

 

[basilio]

This isn't encouraging.
Abrupt climate change means catastopohic climate changes within years and decades rather than centuries.

'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find
Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

Arctic methane deposits 'starting to release', scientists say

Exclusive: expedition says preliminary findings indicate that new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

www.theguardian.com

Abrupt climate change - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Joules MM1]

Back in 2009, only 27.2% of Scotland's electricity came from renewable energy sources.
It was 90.1% in 2019

Could Scotland ever be 'the Saudi Arabia of renewables'?

Not for the first time, politicians highlight Scotland's potential to generate renewable energy.

www.bbc.com

Scottish Energy Statistics Hub

scotland.shinyapps.io

 

[moXJO]

This isn't encouraging.
Abrupt climate change means catastopohic climate changes within years and decades rather than centuries.

'Sleeping giant' Arctic methane deposits starting to release, scientists find
Exclusive: expedition discovers new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

Scientists have found evidence that frozen methane deposits in the Arctic Ocean – known as the “sleeping giants of the carbon cycle” – have started to be released over a large area of the continental slope off the East Siberian coast, the Guardian can reveal.

High levels of the potent greenhouse gas have been detected down to a depth of 350 metres in the Laptev Sea near Russia, prompting concern among researchers that a new climate feedback loop may have been triggered that could accelerate the pace of global heating.

The slope sediments in the Arctic contain a huge quantity of frozen methane and other gases – known as hydrates. Methane has a warming effect 80 times stronger than carbon dioxide over 20 years. The United States Geological Survey has previously listed Arctic hydrate destabilisation as one of four most serious scenarios for abrupt climate change.

Arctic methane deposits 'starting to release', scientists say

Exclusive: expedition says preliminary findings indicate that new source of greenhouse gas off East Siberian coast has been triggered

www.theguardian.com

Abrupt climate change - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Yes its too late imo.

 

[basilio]

Where we are with Global heating. Just keeps on getting hotter and hotter

The data is in and Australia just had its hottest November on record

The BOM confirms it after crunching last month's numbers, while it was also the country's warmest spring on record for minimum and mean temperatures.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Arctic sea ice is disappearing rapidly. Because this ice is a key factor in reflecting the heat of the sun its loss is accelerating the heating of the Arctic and surroundings regions.
Forest fires in Siberia, Canada and Norther Europe

Earth's 'air conditioner' is trapped in a polar heat spike — this is what it looks like

Dramatic and potentially irreversible changes are unfolding right now in the Arctic and the fallout is being felt well beyond the reaches of the north pole.

www.abc.net.au

 

[basilio]

Wrap up of the effects of extreme weather events in 2020. The report highlights the human and financial costs which will flow through to the insurance and re insurance industry.
Start looking at your insurance cover.

Climate change: Extreme weather causes huge losses in 2020

Hurricanes, floods and wildfires wreaked havoc, causing deaths and a huge financial impact.

www.bbc.com

 

[basilio]

The Arctic 104 years ago and today..

 

[basilio]

Greta Turns 18 ! Off to the pub..

 

[basilio]

This new research has to be the most encouraging I have seen regarding CC for some time time.
It seems that if the world did manage to quickly reach net carbon neutrality ie no extra CO2 into the atmosphere, future heating could be reduced.

Certainly gives a good push to making an all out effort tackle the problem.

Global heating could stabilize if net zero emissions achieved, scientists say
Climate disaster could be curtailed within a couple of decades if net zero emissions are reached, new study shows

The world may be barreling towards climate disaster but rapidly eliminating planet-heating emissions means global temperatures could stabilize within just a couple of decades, scientists say.

For many years it was assumed that further global heating would be locked in for generations even if emissions were rapidly cut. Climate models run by scientists on future temperatures were based on a certain carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere. If this remained at the current high level there would be runaway climate disaster, with temperatures continuing to rise even if emissions were reduced because of a lag time before greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere.

But more recent understanding of the implications of getting to net zero emissions is giving hope that the warming could be more swiftly curtailed.

Global heating could stabilize if net zero emissions achieved, scientists say

If we can get emissions down to zero, planet will recover quicker than previously thought

www.theguardian.com

 

[sptrawler]

India sees $55bn investment in clean coal over next decade

The investment will be made in clean coal facilities, including coal gasification and coal-bed methane.

www.mining.com

 

[sptrawler]

Well I guess some things never change, when there is a heat wave there are loonies that want to light fires and other loonies that want to blame anything else.

NSW RFS volunteer charged with allegedly lighting 30 fires in state's south-west

The 30-year-old man is arrested in Whitton, about 40 kilometres south of Griffith, after investigations into dozens of fires which were determined to have been deliberately lit between November to January.

www.abc.net.au

Deliberately lit fire in Rockingham contained

Firefighters have contained an out-of-control fire in Rockingham that was deliberately lit at about 1am this morning.

thewest.com.au

Police on the hunt for suspected arsonist after Perth fires

Police are on the hunt for a suspected arsonist they believe deliberately lit a fire that threatened dozen...

www.9news.com.au

Arson Squad investigate 10 suspicious blazes across Perth

www.9news.com.au

 

[sptrawler]

And yet another one in Adelaide.

No Cookies | Daily Telegraph

No Cookies

www.dailytelegraph.com.au

from the article:

Country Fire Service fighting huge fire threatening several townships in Adelaide Hills; Police arrest man allegedly speeding away​

Police have arrested a man allegedly speeding away from the site of a fire in the Adelaide Hills. The massive bushfire continues to threaten Hills townships.

Man arrested speeding away from fire near Cherry Gardens blaze

South Australian police arrest a man who was caught leaving the scene of a fire at Clarendon in the Adelaide Hills. Meanwhile, a fire in the nearby Cherry Gardens area is downgraded from emergency level.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

It will be interesting to see how the EU goes placing tarrifs on China, that is if they do.

Europe vows to work against fossil-fuel investments globally

The European Union plans to use its diplomatic and economic muscle to accelerate global energy transition away from fossil fuels.

www.smh.com.au

From the article:
EU leaders committed last month to cut the bloc’s 2030 greenhouse emissions by 55 per cent compared to 1990 levels, and affirmed their pledge to turn Europe into the world’s first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Alarmed that the bloc’s ever stricter environmental regulations will simply force polluting activities to relocate elsewhere in the world, they are eager to eliminate “carbon leakage” by forcing the rest of the globe to fall in line with the Paris Agreement against climate change.

The EU’s executive arm is drafting a law, to be unveiled by June, that would start penalising imports of certain goods from countries with weak pollution rules, thereby helping to protect the competitiveness of local producers abiding by stricter standards. This push to export climate standards got a boost last week when President Joe Biden moved to restore the US as a member of the Paris climate accord, which seeks to limit global temperature increases to 2 degrees Celsius through steep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.