Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Iron Ore - General Commentary

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Telamelo said:
I don't think iron ore will ever again drop below US$90 a tonne imo which even at that price, still a big cash cow for the big boy's!
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I wouldn’t make that bet, After all even oil went negative for a while back in 2020, however I would be happy to make a bet that it’s average price over time will be above $90.

If some one offered to pay me $100 for every quarter Iron averaged above $90, and in return I had to pay them $100 for every quarter in averaged below $90, I would make that bet.

But in any given quarter I may have to pay them $100, but I feel that over time I will be collecting more often than not.
 
now regarding iron ( and coal ) there is talk of escalating the bloodsports show in Ukraine

do they let Russia win , or are they going to start replacing all those destroyed war-toys

( remember the West needs to distract like hell for the EU/US financial implosion currently in progress )
 
Iron ore looks to be in the doldrums for the rest of the year.

Iron ore looks set to continue this month’s sharp plunge on growing fears of a slowdown in China, amid a commodity price plunge that also battered gold producers on Wednesday.

Iron ore spot prices were trading just below $US110 on Tuesday, but Singapore futures dipped further in Wednesday trading, touching $US106.70 late in the day – their lowest mark in 2022.

The falls in Singapore were mirrored by a similar 2.7 per cent drop in the value of the most traded active contract on China’s Dalian exchange, with the iron ore price rout seemingly set to continue as mass testing for Covid-19 in Shanghai this week has again raised fears of wider lockdowns in China’s major cities.

Australia’s most valuable export commodity was worth more than $US145 a tonne a month ago, but has slumped on growing fears that China’s “zero Covid” policy will further crimp its economy amid reports iron ore stockpiles are rising as Chinese steel mills idle blast furnaces as lockdowns weaken economic activity and hit steel demand.

The growing threat posed by a weakening Chinese economy has exacerbating inflation concerns hitting major developed nations, with fears of a broader recession – partly triggered by high commodity prices – also triggering an oil price plunge.

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@qldfrog thanks for the hyperlink, it's a well-written article. Cutting out the middle man for a short period will be beneficial for us as a nation. I particularly like the paragraphs below as it's a small step in getting our biggest trading partner back onside.

"Yuan-settlement trade will not only enhance the bargaining power of domestic iron and steel enterprises on iron ore prices but also avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations while ensuring profit margins and cost stability for enterprises.

Moreover, the market price of buyers and sellers will be relatively stable, measurable, and beneficial for the sustainable trade partnership, even though the US dollar is still the main currency for the iron ore trade at the moment".

Skate.
 
Skate said:
@qldfrog thanks for the hyperlink, it's a well-written article. Cutting out the middle man for a short period will be beneficial for us as a nation. I particularly like the paragraphs below as it's a small step in getting our biggest trading partner back onside.

"Yuan-settlement trade will not only enhance the bargaining power of domestic iron and steel enterprises on iron ore prices but also avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations while ensuring profit margins and cost stability for enterprises.

Moreover, the market price of buyers and sellers will be relatively stable, measurable, and beneficial for the sustainable trade partnership, even though the US dollar is still the main currency for the iron ore trade at the moment".

Skate.
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And it is a definite sign of a changing world with the demise of the petrodollar.for best or worse, it is happening.
 
The spot price of iron ore as quoted by the Platts unit of S&P Global Commodity Insights, fell $US9.15 or 8.4 per cent to $US100.25 a tonne.

....concerns about demand in China is why the Singapore traded price fell to an eight-month low on Thursday amid renewed concerns that trouble in China’s property sector will widen as well as the prospect of more COVID-19 lockdowns.

“Property has been getting steadily worse the whole time; prices, sales, starts, all terrible,” an analyst told Bloomberg. “The chronic deterioration has now taken another step. It was always going to hit the financial sector eventually, given the prevalence of collateral in loan books with large real estate portions.”
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Good evening,

The ASX’s iron ore producers had a great day today maybe in response to China’s softening of coronavirus prevention measures and better efforts to resuscitate the country’s stricken property sector. Iron ore futures traded in Singapore rose 3.9 per cent to $US94.85 a tonne on the contract today. In the spot market, iron ore rose 4.7 per cent to $US92.25 ($142) a tonne on Friday, according to Platts.

Champion Iron surged 13 per cent to $6.03, and Fortescue Metals Group 10 per cent to $19.55. BHP Group rose 4.6 per cent to $44.01, and Rio Tinto 3.3 per cent to $106.

`Nice

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Current Iron ore rice is $130 a ton. Been running at $120 plus since January so BHP, FMG and RIO are accumulating much better results than the first half of the 22-23.

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basilio said:
Current Iron ore rice is $130 a tonne . Been running at $120 plus since January
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Overnight (NY)..
  • Iron ore -1.5% to $US117.90 a tonne

A Cat 5 cyclone looking to clip Port Hedland tonight ... I wonder if shipping will be impacted , and will production in the Pilbara be affected?

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is a category 4 system and is moving south. Ilsa is expected to turn to the southeast this afternoon and develop further, and is now forecast to reach category 5 intensity as it move towards the east Pilbara coast.

A severe impact will occur along the coast and adjacent inland parts to the east of Port Hedland and west of Wallal Downs, most likely between Pardoo Roadhouse and Wallal Downs, later tonight or early Friday morning. During Friday, Ilsa is forecast to maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it tracks past Telfer and further inland across the Northern Interior district
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Overnight (NY)..
  • Iron ore -1.5% to $US117.90 a tonne

A Cat 5 cyclone looking to clip Port Hedland tonight ... I wonder if shipping will be impacted , and will production in the Pilbara be affected?

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ilsa is a category 4 system and is moving south. Ilsa is expected to turn to the southeast this afternoon and develop further, and is now forecast to reach category 5 intensity as it move towards the east Pilbara coast.

A severe impact will occur along the coast and adjacent inland parts to the east of Port Hedland and west of Wallal Downs, most likely between Pardoo Roadhouse and Wallal Downs, later tonight or early Friday morning. During Friday, Ilsa is forecast to maintain tropical cyclone intensity as it tracks past Telfer and further inland across the Northern Interior district
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The port was cleared at 1pm today, so no ships being loaded at the moment until the cyclone passes.

It shouldn’t affect the guidance, the port closes for a few days almost every year due to cyclones, so this is allowed for when the Iron Ore companies make their production estimates.
 
rcw1 said:
Good evening
Hoping those ASF members living / working in the path of Category 5 Cyclone Ilsa, specifically around that Port Hedland area, all stay safe.

Kind regards
rcw1
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Reported on the idiot box tonight 315k winds possible and mega amounts of rainfall.
Having out own little storm here this afternoon and evening. Obviously not in the category as Ilsa but reasonably strong wind and some very useful rainfall.
It is still raining now.
 
farmerge said:
Reported on the idiot box tonight 315k winds possible and mega amounts of rainfall.
Having out own little storm here this afternoon and evening. Obviously not in the category as Ilsa but reasonably strong wind and some very useful rainfall.
It is still raining now.
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Lucky you....we missed on our cyclone and have had a rain season much drier than any of the dry season I can remember here
 
The outlook for iron ore is increasingly bearish. High steel inventories and weak end-user demand are pushing prices down and this should continue throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 even if the Chinese economy continues to chug along.

$80 looks like an area of support and this is where it may eventually bottom out.

sco com.jpeg
 
greggles said:
The outlook for iron ore is increasingly bearish. High steel inventories and weak end-user demand are pushing prices down and this should continue throughout the remainder of 2023 and into 2024 even if the Chinese economy continues to chug along.

$80 looks like an area of support and this is where it may eventually bottom out.

View attachment 156569
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Will $80 really hurt Twiggy and Gina. I think not. The peasants who rely on the twice yearly dividends might have more to say though.
 

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