Iranian Civil War?

Conflict and turmoil has escalated within Iran as Government opposition members are killed. Is Iran heading toward a civil war or will any opposition be crushed and subdued before building any strength? Everybody wants to be closer to free.

Iran holds bodies of slain protesters

CAIRO – Iranian authorities said Monday that they were holding the bodies of five slain anti-government protesters, including the nephew of the opposition leader, in what appeared to be an attempt to prevent activists from using their funerals as a platform for more demonstrations.

Pro-reform Web sites and activists said the government also detained at least eight prominent opposition figures — including a former foreign minister — in an intensified crackdown that could fuel more violence of the kind that engulfed the center of Tehran on Sunday. The activity pushed the bitterly opposed camps beyond any immediate prospect of reconciliation or compromise.

Hardliners, including clerical groups and the elite Revolutionary Guard, issued statements urging the country's judiciary to take action against the opposition for violating Islamic principles and insulting the head of Iran's religious leadership, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

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The Tipping Point in Iran

When millions of peaceful demonstrators took to the streets of big Iranian cities in June to protest what was widely assumed to be a stolen election, many in the West wondered whether the movement had the will and vision to sustain itself.

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Iranian Civil War?

Lets hope so is my first thought, some sort of civil war in Iran is inevitable, the Islamic nuts (fundamentalist hard right) will never give up power so it will have to be taken from them by force and unfortunately there will be civilian loss of life, detention and torture.

Lets hope when it comes that its brief and as blood less as possible.

There has been momentum building for 6 months now. I see one of two things happening.

First one being a complete takeover by the people and chasing the current leaders til their death. Much like bulgaria 1989(i think it was them but can't be stuffed googling it) where they chased the leader and killed him in a back yard or something like that. Personally I prefer this result.

The other outcome I'm afraid would be another tianiman square!

Hate loss of life by those who should lead this country instead of current government.

Pity that under umbrella of internal affairs dictators can slaughter their opponents and UN with all the do-gooders can happily sit on their hands and claim powerlessness as their legitimate excuse.

So_Cynical said:

Iranian Civil War?

Lets hope so is my first thought, some sort of civil war in Iran is inevitable, the Islamic nuts (fundamentalist hard right) will never give up power so it will have to be taken from them by force and unfortunately there will be civilian loss of life, detention and torture.

Lets hope when it comes that its brief and as blood less as possible.

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That has been happening since the revolution. According to the wik. source (and why would it not be true) human rights are not negotiable.

Human Rights

Main article: Human rights in the Islamic Republic of Iran

Further information: Casualties_of_the_Iranian_Revolution#Casualties_of_the_Islamic_government

In the first five years of the Islamic Republic, during its consolidation, approximately 8000 political opponents were executed. Thousands of political prisoners were also executed in 1988. Like other revolutions before it, the Iranian Revolution took a higher toll on those who had participated in the revolution than those in the regime it over through.

In recent years the killing of dissidents has been much less frequent and reported abuses are more likely to include harsh penalties for crimes; punishment of fornication, homosexuality, apostasy, poor hijab (covering of the head for women); restrictions on freedom of speech, and the press, including the imprisonment of journalists; unequal treatment according to religion and gender; torture to extract repudiations by prisoners of their cause and comrades on video for propaganda purposes, and allowing prisoners to die by witholding medical treatment.

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Fairly hard to have a war unless both sides are armed at least to a degree. What you have here is rising opposition to a regime, but unless the police or army move their way or they get outside help resistance and protest is going to be the order of the day. I know I'd rather be in Australia than Iran.

Iran will probably be the next 'holiday destination' for our Aussie troops. I wouldnt be surprised to see a 'peacekeeping' force over there within the next 5yrs. I have a mate in the army and they are almost resigned to the fact that Iran is where they will be fighting next.

Even just now Obama has condemed the fact the Iranian gov is detaining citizens (yet the US do the same in Guantanamo Bay), so it appears the West wont be able to keep out of it...

I've been following this on Twitter.

Its difficult to know how strong the dissidents are.

They are a brave bunch going up against the mad mob that rule Iran at present.

Good luck to them. I wish their protests well.

gg

The government can't keep hiding this.

Thank god for nokia and youtube


My prediction for 2010. Civil war in Iran which will temp other extremist countries to join in, which will in turn cause the west to join in, causing a world war.

Think i'll put this on Hubdub

From what I have read the supreme beings are siphoning off a large chunk of revenue from oil/gas sales. Where have I heard that before. Oil/gas exports are the major money spinner for the country. The constant oppression is building a ground swell of people who have had a gut full. The more of their own people they kill and persecute then the resistance will become greater. We shall see how smart the supreme leader is but history does repeat.

Thank Buddha Australia has the Westminster system.

The Religious leaders must be getting nervous, as they know first hand how public opinion can build up and eventually overthrow a dictator. They were amongst the opposition movement in 1979 and now they sitting on the opposite side. They will either have to relinquish control voluntary or be eventually thrown out of office by force. The Shah found out the hard way as well, nobody wants to give up power.

kitehigh said:

They will either have to relinquish control voluntary or be eventually thrown out of office by force. The Shah found out the hard way as well, nobody wants to give up power.

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There was an expert on TV talking about this and he said that in the 70's all the Shah's crones had Swiss bank accounts, were educated overseas and spoke English so mostly happy to go...this current mob are mostly Iranian educated and don't have Swiss accounts and don't speak English.

So will fight to the death as they have nowhere to go...most of the Arab world is Sunni and these guys are Shiites, could one could say there up Shiite Creek.

Our thoughts go to the civilians of Iran....if ti does happen may it be as brief and meaningful as possible....

If it doesnt rest assured they will make sure the people are scared enough that it happens no time again soon....

This one will really test the UN / USA , China, Russia relations / Obamas leadership and Irans neighbours.... Its not a great start to 2010 in any way shape or form...for any of the involved....

And the US people and leaders must be thinking, OMG Iraq, Afghanistan, Cuba, Mexico, GFC 1 & 2, Gaza, US bankers, Climate change, whats next............and now Iran

All the US needs is China v Japan or Taiwan / India v Pakistan / and North Korea v Anyone within missile range to start playing up and they will think its Armageddon. Poor old Obama must have inherited world leadership at the worst possible time in history for a US leader.... Any leader twice his age would have died of a heart attack or stroke by now......We all now wat Clinton would have got up to to fix the problems....

But seriously our thoughts and prayers go out to the Iranian people....

Wysiwyg said:

From what I have read the supreme beings are siphoning off a large chunk of revenue from oil/gas sales. Where have I heard that before. Oil/gas exports are the major money spinner for the country. The constant oppression is building a ground swell of people who have had a gut full. The more of their own people they kill and persecute then the resistance will become greater. We shall see how smart the supreme leader is but history does repeat.

Thank Buddha Australia has the Westminster system.

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LMAO - Wysiwyg this is not aimed at you but your comment about the westminster system triggered me....

At least the Iranian leaders have the stupidity and uadacity to say hey this is a dictatorship......

The good old Westminster is not too dis-similar, they just pretend to operate with a policy and honest agenda - then once they get elected it becomes a dictatorship till the next election when pork barrelling takes over and empty promises are made again......

Westminster would be great if politicians had any integrity and honesty at all........or if the electorate truly held them accountable....but we have become so blazay about everything....and so accustomed to politicians lying to us that we now see it as acceptable to promiss one thing and deliver another......We hold our NRL and AFL stars more publicly accountable then our politicians....

If we as Australians had the energy to bother we would immediately and harshly punish any government that broke its promises for any non-legitimate reason and immediately throw them out at the next election, no matter who the oppposition was...... then politiicians may begin to develop some integrity and honesty again.....NSW state labour is the most classic example of a pathetic Australian attitude to elections........term after term of broken promises and comlete and total failure to deliver any sort of even acceptable government.......

We would protest in the sttreets and burn paper cutouts, throw shoes...... Take the pacific highway as a classic example......The coroner reccomended over 20 years ago that it be dual carriage way Melbourne to Brisbane in response to the Clybucca bus crash where 46 people lost thier lives 2 days before xmas..... It was promised by successive governments from both sides and we have paid enough federal and state fuel taxes and levies to fund it 500 times over, but here we are 20 years on, 10 years after the promissed finish date and its less then half completed..........every year another hundred or so drivers die on this notorious number 1 highway and over 4000 people are seriously injured.......

Look at the Ken doll we have in power now.....50 enquiries....400 overseas trips......not one decision.....the only thing he can do is right checkt to Harvey Norman.......Westminster.....LOL..fiar squeeze of the sauce bottle ay.....

condog,

I share your cynicism of the Westminster System. It's a well know rant trigger for me and I have a few theories why we do nothing. They won't be popular with my fellow plebeians however and probably off topic.

It does tie in with my hypothesis of revolution and civil wars.

One half of my hypothesis is that we peasants will only rise up once we feel there is nothing left to lose... if we have the means. This applies to Iranians or whoever. So the question about whether there will be civil war in Iran IMO becomes:

1/ Do they "feel" they have nothing to lose? Is the prospect of death preferable to the current tyranny?

2/ Do they have the means, or can they acquire them. (i.e. things that go BANG)

I don't know the answers to those questions.

Look at the Ken doll we have in power now.....50 enquiries....400 overseas trips......not one decision.....the only thing he can do is right checkt to Harvey Norman.......Westminster.....LOL..fiar squeeze of the sauce bottle ay...

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I don't see any oppressed people in Australia. The governments are changed by the majority vote and as far as political promises go well they are remembered next election. Think of the system as a play with actors strutting the stage and following script. They are a blast, really funny guys and gals. Zeus bless 'em all. Oh .... and easy on the mustard hey buddy. :

kitehigh said:

The Religious leaders must be getting nervous, as they know first hand how public opinion can build up and eventually overthrow a dictator. They were amongst the opposition movement in 1979 and now they sitting on the opposite side. They will either have to relinquish control voluntary or be eventually thrown out of office by force. The Shah found out the hard way as well, nobody wants to give up power.

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I recommend this observer's run down on who's who in Iranian politics, from the National Interest.

My take is that there's no turning back - the Khomeini revolution is dead, long live the revolution.

If there's one thing that revolutionaries hate, it's a revolution. The religious leaders may well be nervous, but I suspect their strongest gut reaction is genuine outrage that any unruly mob in the streets has the temerity to call themselves "the people".

An amazing thing, the human mind.

Interesting how the media portray the Iran situation as good vers bad.

It looks to me as Bad against really bad, an argument among the ruling elite not to be confused with a revolution by and for the people.

Wysiwyg said:

I don't see any oppressed people in Australia. The governments are changed by the majority vote and as far as political promises go well they are remembered next election. Think of the system as a play with actors strutting the stage and following script. They are a blast, really funny guys and gals. Zeus bless 'em all. Oh .... and easy on the mustard hey buddy. :

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It's true we are not overtly oppressed. But we are covertly manipulated and easy to divide with emotive arguments (divide and rule). There is always enough disinformation/misinformation to ensure a critical mass is in support of any gu'mint agenda.

ETS anyone?

The rational argument is to reject it out of hand on the basis of national interest, yet the "emotisation" of the argument ensures that vast swathes of the peasantry are in favour of transferring production and wealth generation to the third world, with no net effect on co2 emissions (possibly even a net increase).

We are not bludgeoned into submission, we are moulded into it.

We are not bludgeoned into submission, we are moulded into it.

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A bit of topic maybe but you could even say we are born into it Wayne, for a Country that is free thinking and free of dictorship we are forced to vote, essentialy the polies have to achieve zero results to get our vote or you have the choice to vote for the alternative who also is not accountable to do anything positive