IPL - Incitec Pivot

[Julia]

I hold some IPL in my portfolio. It seems that it did not follow the recent market rally. But recovery is not far away I think

Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
And maybe define 'not far away'.

 

[Bluebeard]

Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
And maybe define 'not far away'.

Yeah, I was also interested about the "not far away" comment.It would be good if we could get an explanation. On another thing IPL now @ $2.12 at time of posting.

 

[craigj]

as a newby to the market this stock seems to bounce up and down 10c each day for a good trading opportunity

looking to get back in again after buying at 1.705 and selling at 2.13 in Feb.

and fertilisers are not a discretionary spend

 

[Bluebeard]

And winter is coming up fast, isnt this about the time when farmers need to buying fertilisers for there crops?

 

[michael_selway]

Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
And maybe define 'not far away'.

Hi Julia, you appear quite bearish on IPL even at current prices, why is that?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 55.5 29.5 30.9 30.9
DPS 26.8 16.3 17.3 17.0

Date: 31/3/2009
Author: Carrie LaFrenz
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, expects its profit to fall, but ithas gained sufficient bank loans. It has forecast a net profit before one-offitems of about $A450 million for the year to 30 September 2009, 32 per centlower than the previous year. It has arranged a loan averaging $A390 million toOctober 2010 with its banking syndicate

Date: 17/3/2009
Author: Carrie LaFrenz
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20
Consolidation of the global fertiliser industry could make Australian-listed Incitec Pivot a takeover target. The outlook for the sector is strong and Incitec's attractiveness is enhanced by the weaker Australian currency and its operations in emerging markets. Three North American companies are examining possible mergers.

thx

MS

 

[Bluebeard]

Does anyone know when IPL will be reporting their results, I think it has to be in the next few weeks or inside the next month or so. It will be interesting to see what the result is, it will also be interesting to see if there has been any backlash from farmer anger after last years record profit, primarily from very high fertiliser prices, which after reading articles published some farmers blame IPL. Hopefully that has been overhyped and the results will show the circa $450 million everyone is expecting after the last updates.

 

[Sean K]

Newcrazy, can you explain why you think that a recovery is 'not far away'?
And maybe define 'not far away'.

No answer oddly enough.



I'd imagine recovery for this occurs along with the gen commod market, so anywhere between now and 6 years as a rough guestimate.

People saying 'the world has to eat' might want to look at the charts of other agri stocks to see if that holds up in a general market decline.

Could well be one of the first to recover of course, although there may be other products that lead a recovery.

 

[enigmatic]

This one has been on my long term play list for a while now trigger condition hasnt been meet so still waiting right now the 250MVA is way to high for my liking would like to see some movement in the northly direction before i jump on board been considering it for trading but haven't dived in yet..

Food is Important I must admit but we already over consume..

 

[Bluebeard]

The markets not doing much today but IPL when I saw it a little while back was up about 8 cents. Going very well. Hopefully it can keep the gains throughout the day.

 

[Bluebeard]

The price has tanked about 6% after they announced that CEO Julian Segal will leave the company and join caltex. Its not a good announcement at all, whats peoples views on this now, and how does it impact IPL going forward?

 

[Sean K]

The price has tanked about 6% after they announced that CEO Julian Segal will leave the company and join caltex. Its not a good announcement at all, whats peoples views on this now, and how does it impact IPL going forward?

Probably an overeaction.

Caltex? I thought he was going to Sydney for 'family reasons'??

Wonder which gas station he's going to be working at?

 

[snowking]

It was a quick fall from its highs at $2.40 a few days ago.
it seems to be a massive overreaction though imo. Depending on who they announce as the new CEO we might see those prices recovered at some stage in the near future.

 

[Hedders]

Uncertainty of any kind is a killer for companies in times like these. IPL need to fill the void at the helm quickly now the news it out (I wonder how long they've known about Segal's departure). You'd like to think the price will rebound soon enough, especially if the half-year financials remain on track (due in 2 weeks or so?)

 

[Bluebeard]

Incitec Pivot is up about 10c at the moment and is in reach of the $2.30 now. Interesting to note the Orica results as well, Orica's result has pleased the market, hopefully IPL's explosives business has produced some decent revenues and profits- even in the downturn, if so, then IPL may get a lift when it reports, otherwise things could turn downwards.

 

[adventra05]

Not sure if anyone else noticed however after market buys the past few nights of up to and over $1 mill on consequtive nights, convinced me to buy in and hopefully they know the info mon 11th will be well recieved..

 

[Bluebeard]

I noticed that IPL had good auction periods on both Thursday and Friday, it seemed to get good gains during those 10 minute periods, I didnt see volumes however.

I was weighing up my position yesterday whether I should sell out and wait for announcements on Monday, I didnt sell out and Im still in because I got a decent buffer from the prices I paid for my IPLs. Wall Street went ok this morning for us, so a good IPL report may do very good things for the share price.

 

[Nero64]

Not sure if anyone else noticed however after market buys the past few nights of up to and over $1 mill on consequtive nights, convinced me to buy in and hopefully they know the info mon 11th will be well recieved..

Hi Adventra,

I noticed this:

4:15:44 PM 2.338 950600 $2,222,502.8 XTOS
2:08:43 PM 2.422 492041 $1,191,723.3 XTOS
2:08:43 PM 2.422 492041 $1,191,723.3 XTOS


Just a couple of things to note. I assume the there was a buyer and seller at the 2.422 price (Note it did not trade at this price on Friday) which accounts for the two entries.

The entry after the bell at 2.338, how do you know it is not a sell at 2.338?

 

[adventra05]

Good point they could have been sells, although I noticed big ones (similar amounts of 800k several at 2,3,and 500k) from tues onwards at market prices ... as it is a reconstructed stock (RE) all orders are purged daily. Maybe those big ones shown 30min after the auction didn't execute then, given the price, be it sell or buy was above the traded price? they had a different code to those in the auction too...

Several large ones did go through tues, wed, thurs during the auction thou, which as mentioned means buyers and sellers, I'm hoping for profit takers exiting and those seeking them entering with knowledge?

 

[Julia]

, I'm hoping for profit takers exiting and those seeking them entering with knowledge?

Can you explain what you mean by "those seeking them entering with knowledge"?
It's rather an unusual phrase.

 

[adventra05]

Those entering last week for serious amounts knowing/or willing to stake their money on Monday info having positive effect on sp... many ships leak hopefully thats why some or most of them entered?