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IPL - Incitec Pivot

What happened to this one Friday Jumped up 10% on no news.. Is there anything coming out soon or is this just normal movement for IPL..
 
What happened to this one Friday Jumped up 10% on no news.. Is there anything coming out soon or is this just normal movement for IPL..
Chinese have approached Nufarm about a takeover. Same industries. Many would see IPLs depressed price and think it could be oversold. However, world fertiliser prices have been decimated and there seems to be a glut of product. Will be some time before the supply demand ratio goes bck in their favour. Farmers who have put off fertilising must do it next year however or crops will be decimated. So, maybe 2010 is a turn around.
 
IPL seeing some steady gains towards $3.00, any news of late? Could it be following AUD up or are fertilizer prices moving?

Any thoughts?

Roll on.
 
IPL seeing some steady gains towards $3.00, any news of late? Could it be following AUD up or are fertilizer prices moving?

Any thoughts?

Roll on.
Poo products seemed to have stabilised from the odd bits that I've read, but I think this initally moved due to the NUF thing, and some investors looking to oversold growth stocks. Breaking $2.80ish looked important, but $3.00 is also. I can't be confident of a new uptrend till that goes. Looks pretty positive though.
 
it has to break 3.00 for me. it reached a tad over 2.80 just over a month ago and then during the next 4 weeks dived back down under 2.20 before starting the current uptrend.
 
Ok this looks better today noticing that IPL is at $3.03. If this has broken a new resistance at $3 bucks, then whats next, anyone know? Lets hope she don't go back down again

:)
 
Potentially a significant longer term breakout. Has only just gone through $3.00, but looks pretty strong. Market overcooked and looks like it needs a significant rest which could halt the advance. Risk is back in the market and longer term growth stocks have taken some interest, like IPL. Can't see those rediculous prices for poo products reappearing anytime soon, but longer term, could be a nice pick.
 

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Potentially a significant longer term breakout. Has only just gone through $3.00, but looks pretty strong. Market overcooked and looks like it needs a significant rest which could halt the advance. Risk is back in the market and longer term growth stocks have taken some interest, like IPL. Can't see those rediculous prices for poo products reappearing anytime soon, but longer term, could be a nice pick.
Broke through, tested support, and continued on. Looks pretty positive long term, but the mystical correction could appear at the drop of a hat.
 
great to see IPL breaking through $ 3.00 +
Punted in February this year when dived sub $ 2.00, on average now
gettin' square hope to see support , but do agree possibly/probably some doom and gloom to come overall in the market, thanks Kennas.
 
IPL down - Why?

Hi Guys,

I,m new to the forum. I was wondering if anyone knew what is driving IPL price down at the moment. I have a significant stake in this stock and its a bit worrying to see it down at $ 2.82 today. There have been no anouncements for a while.

Max
 
Re: IPL down - Why?

Hi Guys,

I,m new to the forum. I was wondering if anyone knew what is driving IPL price down at the moment. I have a significant stake in this stock and its a bit worrying to see it down at $ 2.82 today. There have been no anouncements for a while.

Max
Max, You really should know that since you have so much in this one particular stock. World fertiliser prices have been decimated during the economic crisis. Plus, they were in a bubble on top of the bubble at the peak of the boom, so coming back to reality really. Future prices are clouded at the moment. The fertiliser bulls say the world can't go another year without adding significantly to fertiliser usage as crop yields will be significantly effected. I say, if you can't buy the ****, then that's the way it is! Low crop yields and we start eating less crops. Simple.
 
Thanks for your reply Kennas,

Yes pricing is off but this stock was $ 3.50 last month at its recent peak, low fertiliser prices or not. Recently there has been large selling. Possible 2.80 will be the floor? I'm just not sure why the large selling all of a sudden.

Max
 
Thanks for your reply Kennas,

Yes pricing is off but this stock was $ 3.50 last month at its recent peak, low fertiliser prices or not. Recently there has been large selling. Possible 2.80 will be the floor? I'm just not sure why the large selling all of a sudden.

Max

You should seriously rethink your entry strategy if it was based solely on price last month vs price today, and you know nothing about the company.
 
Thats a bit harsh SKC. I was asking about a stock not my investment strategy.

But thankyou for your willingness to contribute and thus I will indulge you.

My average entry price was $ 2.95
The company has incredibly low debt after completing capital raisings.
The share is Known for good dividend return baring the last one.
Fertilizer is a good business with continual demand.
The dividends are 100% franked.

These were my main criteria.

Anyway people got spooked recently or maybe they are shorting?

mAX
 
Thats a bit harsh SKC. I was asking about a stock not my investment strategy.

But thankyou for your willingness to contribute and thus I will indulge you.

My average entry price was $ 2.95
The company has incredibly low debt after completing capital raisings.
The share is Known for good dividend return baring the last one.
Fertilizer is a good business with continual demand.
The dividends are 100% franked.

These were my main criteria.

Anyway people got spooked recently or maybe they are shorting?

mAX

I did say "if" your entry criteria was solely based on price than you should rethink. Clearly you have proved otherwise so my apology that you think I was too harsh...

As a further gesture of goodwill... I have attached my read on the IPL chart.

The chart points to a potential turnaround in the near timeframe... clear 3 wave retracement having just reached 50% of the last leg of advance.

Good luck with your trade / investment :)
 

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The chart points to a potential turnaround in the near timeframe... clear 3 wave retracement having just reached 50% of the last leg of advance.

:)

Cheers mate,

Now if you where to explain the above statement to me a little I would really learn something today!

If you would be so kind?

Max
 
Re: IPL down - Why?

Max, You really should know that since you have so much in this one particular stock. World fertiliser prices have been decimated during the economic crisis. Plus, they were in a bubble on top of the bubble at the peak of the boom, so coming back to reality really. Future prices are clouded at the moment. The fertiliser bulls say the world can't go another year without adding significantly to fertiliser usage as crop yields will be significantly effected. I say, if you can't buy the ****, then that's the way it is! Low crop yields and we start eating less crops. Simple.

IPL has been funny lately. not exactly sure why.

max - i also hold a bit of IPL also (used to own dyno nobel a few years back also). from what i can gather, there is a parliamentary enquiry into fertiliser pricing which has cause a lot of instos to get a bit scared.

IPL is your traditional cyclical stock. when times are good, farmers will do anything to get the best out of there crop. hence they buy fertilisers, pesticides, etc.when times are bad, farmers either go to low grade fertiliser, manuere or nothing.

i wouldn't mind some more insight into this as well if anyone can help
 
Cheers mate,

Now if you where to explain the above statement to me a little I would really learn something today!

If you would be so kind?

Max

Based on the wave theory school in technical analysis, prices move up and down in waves. For example, the Elliot Wave theory says that an up leg would advance in 5 waves, with Wave 1, 3 and 5 being in the primary direction (i.e. up) and 2 and 4 being retracements (i.e. down). And that the wave 2 retracement tragets 50% to 62% of the previous up leg. Also, a retracement leg often display a 3-wave characteristics within that leg. There are many more rules and guidelines but I am no expert in this stuff.

Some believe it is BS, tealeaf reading or self fulfilling, while other sees it as gospel. I personally think it has value depending on how it is applied.

Do a search on Elliot wave thoery on this forum for passionate debates. I personally find this thread more interesting and practical.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15688
 
is ipl truly a cyclical stock or a commodities play on the price of fertiliser ?
i was trading this stock when it was under $2 earlier in the year and i dont think the fundamentals of fert prices or the high cost of the explosives business they purchased have changed
 
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