IPL - Incitec Pivot

[Sean K]

For those that have bought expecting a dead cat today or a gap up bouncing cat on the open tomorrow, it's time to make decisions. Risk holding overnight fearing an implosion overseas or more bad news here, compared to the theory that this was an overraction that will bounce.

Place your bets!



For those that see the industry recovering in 2-190 years, good luck too.



The close may tell a little story for short termers..

 

[gfresh]

I expect a higher price tomorrow .. Massive volume of 99M today, and price fell another ~11.8% from open price, but it came back to close at $1.78 = 3.9% down on open price ($1.85). Tail indicates support.

That's either a lot of churn... or more likely must have been many buyers, taking shares from holders who finally threw in the towel. Price would not have closed near open price without heavy buying.

My thinking anyhow, I am often wrong on these things!

 

[Bluebeard]

I purchased IPL for the long term. People need to eat, farm animals need to be fed, and IPL fertilizer business goes to that end, also this stock was trading at $10 post 20/1 split from what I understand. Anyway everyone should do there own research, Im no expert, hoping that in time, Ill have a look at the price and it would have risen to decent levels price wise.

 

[rcm617]

Bought in today in what looks to me like an overreaction. Most of the negative news about fertilizer prices was already known to the market. Prices have been stabilising the last few weeks and farmers would have run down most of their stocks and have to start buying again so can only go up from here, especially with a lot of the overseas companies cutting back on production. The dollar is already well below the 70c mentioned so at todays price would add $100m to the profit and I think more likely to go down than up with our interest rates dropping. Still one of the lowest cost fertilizer producers on a world scale.

 

[gohawks]

For those that have bought expecting a dead cat today or a gap up bouncing cat on the open tomorrow, it's time to make decisions. Risk holding overnight fearing an implosion overseas or more bad news here, compared to the theory that this was an overraction that will bounce.

Place your bets!



For those that see the industry recovering in 2-190 years, good luck too.



The close may tell a little story for short termers..

I'm in for the 190 years + scenario! :

No idea how it will play out for me but we will see i guess.

Good luck to all, a pretty nice close for us in the end.

 

[Sean K]

In two minds on the close. Was OK, but would have liked it up another 5% ish to be really bullish on the open tomorrow. The volume looks like absolute total capitulation. The immediate must sellers have gone. Not to say there may be more out there but geeeesh!! I'm taking a pluck now but I think punters will assume a knee jerk and a gap up in the am. Too late for anyone to get in perhaps, or out! eeeeek!

Not sure how much the US will effect it on the open.

 

[dirty_harry]

Looks oversold to me, I feel sorry for the people being forced out at these prices. I'm holding.

- I'm looking for a large run up in commodities sometimes within 2 years, led by energy and agriculture. This will be very positive for fertiliser and explosives prices. In the meantime, if they can still make 400-500mill profit, i.e. PE less than 10, then it's fine to wait.

- The market for many things is in shock, but depletion of nitrogen in soils of arable land is one of the long term problems the world is facing. India are huge buyers later on for example.

- Low fertliser prices are due to the current extremely depressed grain prices. But grain stocks are low. Farmers will reduce production, and there will be huge food shortages at some point causing catastrophe is some countries.

- In the long term, food and energy will make up a much larger percentage of people's budget than in the past.

 

[Go Nuke]

Yeah Im sorry guys..I should have told you I was throwing $5K into this last week...then you all would have known to go short!

Oh well. This is for my retirement in about 2050.

 

[Dowdy]

I like this company and the fundamentals aren't impared but since it reached a low of 1.63 today, i'll buy when it reaches that price

 

[Dezza]

I'm shining up my steel balls and hoping for a positive start to tomorrow's price. If not, as long as it doesn't gap down again and by-pass my stop-loss position then I guess it'll be alright.

*keeps buffing and shining*

Good luck to those who held overnight as well!

 

[gav]

I'm shining up my steel balls and hoping for a positive start to tomorrow's price. If not, as long as it doesn't gap down again and by-pass my stop-loss position then I guess it'll be alright.

*keeps buffing and shining*

Good luck to those who held overnight as well!

LOL! Wouldn't you be better off going to the casino and putting it all on black?

Best of luck for tomorrow, hope it works out for you

 

[Family_Guy]

Yep, i jumped on at 1.68 after a mate called me to tell me about it. We'd been trading it in the 2.30-2.70 range and as it came down towards 2.60 yesterday, i almost jumped on........i didn't, so, thats 1 to me and 3 to the markets for Feb so far.

 

[paulchow2k]

Yep, i jumped on at 1.68 after a mate called me to tell me about it. We'd been trading it in the 2.30-2.70 range and as it came down towards 2.60 yesterday, i almost jumped on........i didn't, so, thats 1 to me and 3 to the markets for Feb so far.

yes. Holding over night! Gaped up at settlement so I'm thinking this will open a bit higher tomorrow morning. We shall see.

Paul

 

[Ardyne]

Ive learnt my lesson b4 and am steering well clear


youre all nuts......good luck....

GO IPL GO

 

[joeyjoejoe]

im not feeling it guys, although since im not invested one way or the other i hope im wrong for everybodys sake..

i predict some spinifex blowing through the market depth 2mrow. after todays heavy trading.. i think if its green it will be between 1.78 and 1.85

or if its red. it could get to 1.70

i think, like FMG, it will linger at the 1.80-2 range for the next 1 or 2 months.

okay so it fell 30% so what are we looking to make profit on it?? 10% .. 15% at best...

i could probably think of some better shares to gamble on to try and get 15% quickly.. cause really thats what it is.. a gamble

im not saying there is anything wrong with that. good luck to all.

ill be watching the pre open closely 2mrow.. to be honest i missed this one this morning.. i mainly spend my time looking at stocks on the move (rising) than search for falling stocks.

as gfresh pointed out the share price fell 3.9% from the open price.. announcement factored in. so all things being equal with the announcement factored in, id expect it to either fall or rise by up to 5%

i mean if you secured any amounts between the 1.63 and say 1.70 id say good luck to u ...and your more than likely be able to cash it in for a profit when you see fit

 

[Sean K]

Well that little experiment hasn't quite gone to plan. Where was the gap up?

Oh well, might finish up, or down, but I'm outa here for now....

Chau chau!

:bekloppt:

 

[Dezza]

Following right behind you Kennas. Worth a try but at least it didn't open 30% down again. Back to the drawing board for some more fun.

 

[gfresh]

Same.. looking bare, so sold at open. Small loss of 2.77% for me.. may revisit later. :bekloppt: Have to stick to the trade plan - if trade doesn't proceed as expected, get out.

 

[Bluebeard]

didnt this company still make a profit circa $450 million according to the announcement yesterday. looking at the announcement it seems they were also extremely conservative with estimates (although thats just my opinion) I will hold for the medium term.

 

[nunthewiser]

For what its worth , i have entered this today as a bounce trade ONLY , Normal stop loss rules apply