IPL - Incitec Pivot

[Sean K]

didnt this company still make a profit circa $450 million according to the announcement yesterday.

Yes, but 27% off target or something. Hence the 30% ish drop.

I haven't tried to catch it again for a short bouncer, but on the radar for long term picks after final final capitulation....

 

[Taltan]

Stock looks way to cheap so I had a closer look. Does anyone know if they've managed to renegotiate the bridging facility for the cash they borrowed to buy Dyno (Its due May 09)? If they have I would expect that cat to appear next time Wall st rises

 

[nunthewiser]

chug chug chug............the lil engine that could maybe leaving the station ?.or is this it ?..only in for the bounce so chug away me lil hearties

so many questions............

 

[nunthewiser]

Closed IPL trade .........may it run like the wind for holders .... good luck with it if still holding

cheers

 

[Bluebeard]

Incitec Pivot is trading at around the 1.91 mark at the moment, theres more buying than selling volumes, Im still holding.

 

[gohawks]

Closed IPL trade .........may it run like the wind for holders .... good luck with it if still holding

cheers

Probably not a bad time to get out. I'm still holding but I'm in for the long haul on this one anyway!

 

[dirty_harry]

I'm holding too. Fertiliser prices are linked to the oil price. I believe in peak oil so it's only a matter of time. IPL has access to cheap gas long term.
It's interesting watching some of the old '60s US movies where there are oil wells as far as you can see. Now they're dry.

 

[Go Nuke]

I hold still after buying at $1.80.
The buy ratio is alot higher than the sell side and I would expect a 3 day rally.

Assuming the DOW doesn't tank tonight.

 

[Sean K]

I hold still after buying at $1.80.
The buy ratio is alot higher than the sell side and I would expect a 3 day rally.

Assuming the DOW doesn't tank tonight.

Nice work GN.

I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go.

20% bounce since the oversell.

 

[dirty_harry]

Nice work GN.

I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go.

20% bounce since the oversell.

Hey Kennas,
nothing wrong with playing it safe mate - wish I could have taken that advice last year !! But I do think the bottom is now in for commodities. More confident of that each day now.

 

[Go Nuke]

Nice work GN.

I played it safe which Harry tells me was a wrong move. Should have given the cat a little more CPR to see how it'd go.

20% bounce since the oversell.

Thx Kennas

Bout time I had a win. Thats my second sucessful "deadcat bounce" with CNP being the first.
Lucky I didnt try that with BNB lol

I sold out today at $2.05. That was my target to just take around 10%.
Besides I dont think it will go a 4 day of green.
I expect it to touch about $2.25 and then sell off.
Thought the buy/sell ratio is looking pretty healthy for a rise.

Perhaps I got out too early, but I had to sell for the money atm and a gain is a gain.

I still think IPL is a great stock just wish I had bought those shares from a couple of weeks back on Thursday not at $2.50

Oh well

 

[gfresh]

Perpetual was busy buying them at $1.70 - $1.80 it seems on behalf of various super funds, managed funds, etc. Explains the volume that day.

Their 5.03% holding should help put a bit of a base on things for a while.

 

[Bluebeard]

Im sort of commiting to being a long term holder of IPL now. I waited years to get these prices and whilst I had taken some light chunks before hand, I got the parcel I wanted at what I consider to be a good price going forward. Good luck to all who hold and to those trading. On a dividend yield basis if this company can pay say 30 cents a year then thats a fantastic yield, for those who purchased since the big drop in price.

 

[Bluebeard]

Anyone still holding this stock, its been trading between $1.95 and $2.20, yesterday it closed under $2 if it loses another 10c then maybe it becomes an opportunity to Add.

Is anyone holding this stock after it plunged a while back?

Id be interested in what peoples views are of IPL and especially at these prices.

Disc. I am a holder of IPL shares.

 

[babka]

Hello Bluebird, yes I do believe in IPL and in its good future. I bought my bulk of shares months ago, when they were hovering around $4.00. Bought a few on Fri and will maybe buy more if price goes lower. I did some fundamental research on IPL (I am not in TA) and I am reasonably happy. Nowadays one can't really do a proper FA, everything is in shambles (PE, PEG, ROI,etc.)

 

[Bluebeard]

What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.

 

[michael_selway]

What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.

Hm yeah good to keep an eye on

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 55.5 29.4 30.9 30.5
DPS 26.8 16.3 17.5 20.4

thx

MS

Date: 31/3/2009
Author: Carrie LaFrenz
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 19
Australian fertiliser company, Incitec Pivot, expects its profit to fall, but ithas gained sufficient bank loans. It has forecast a net profit before one-offitems of about $A450 million for the year to 30 September 2009, 32 per centlower than the previous year. It has arranged a loan averaging $A390 million toOctober 2010 with its banking syndicate

Date: 17/3/2009
Author: Carrie LaFrenz
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 20
Consolidation of the global fertiliser industry could make Australian-listed Incitec Pivot a takeover target. The outlook for the sector is strong and Incitec's attractiveness is enhanced by the weaker Australian currency and its operations in emerging markets. Three North American companies are examining possible mergers.

 

[Julia]

Hello Bluebird, yes I do believe in IPL and in its good future. I bought my bulk of shares months ago, when they were hovering around $4.00. Bought a few on Fri and will maybe buy more if price goes lower. I did some fundamental research on IPL (I am not in TA) and I am reasonably happy. Nowadays one can't really do a proper FA, everything is in shambles (PE, PEG, ROI,etc.)

You will buy more if the price goes lower? And more if it goes lower still?
When will you stop buying a falling stock? When it's down to zero?

What are peoples thoughts on IPL the price is just over the $2 mark, Ive continued to add to my IPL position. Hoping it comes off ... otherwise Im knackered.

There was good money made from IPL in the last couple of years when it went from about $2 to about $9 (post split prices), but it has been in a downtrend ever since. I wouldn't touch it unless it showed a clear return to an uptrend.

Just a suggestion: consider investing about $30 in Stan Weinstein's "How to profit in Bull and Bear Markets".

 

[newcrazy]

I hold some IPL in my portfolio. It seems that it did not follow the recent market rally. But recovery is not far away I think

 

[Bluebeard]

You will buy more if the price goes lower? And more if it goes lower still?
When will you stop buying a falling stock? When it's down to zero?



There was good money made from IPL in the last couple of years when it went from about $2 to about $9 (post split prices), but it has been in a downtrend ever since. I wouldn't touch it unless it showed a clear return to an uptrend.

Just a suggestion: consider investing about $30 in Stan Weinstein's "How to profit in Bull and Bear Markets".

Im making a profit at the current price, a substantial part of my holding in IPL was taken when it tanked a while back. I just decided to take another dip at it at just over $2 ... I'm happy with my holding now and Im a medium to long term holder of IPL stock now.