Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics.....
Investment Implications of Climate Change: (and this
is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused), it probably isn't important to dwell on the mechanics or veracity of climate change; just enough to accept that if this is the consensus view, it would be silly to fight it. I mean, if decisions and quotas are made by the political process, and they will, it would be sensible to get on board.
That said, first of all
"If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down."
I would have thought it's more of an engineering challenge!!
So, engineering. No going back. Nearly eight billion people on earth (twice as many when I was born). They (we) all want water, food, safety, a future. And after experiencing hot showers and soft pillows and adequate food and all that, there's no desire to go back. And there are billions wanting a fridge, a car, a job, (insert aspiration). We have built a complex, interdependent (post modern? post industrial?) world and, other than doing a Musk, this is all we have. People aren't going to give up electricity, individual mobility, consumerism. But there will be regulation and mandated outcomes
As a believer in the efficient allocation of capital to achieve outcomes, I quite like the Schumpeterian view of
Creative Destruction. So, and I use a barbell approach to investing, I drew up a list of
minnows (that's where Risk v Reward is at the most dynamic ) on the ASX, to investigate and possibly invest in.
First up, the instinctive reaction to
Buy Lithium (or Cobalt, or Graphite) has not produced many winners. So, here goes, I’ll list a few companies that have ‘green credentials” and let you look into them further.
• Energy One Limited (ASX:EOL) is a leading independent global supplier of Energy Trading and Risk Management (ETRM) Systems
• More than 10 years’ experience providing software solutions to high quality customers trading in complex and fast-paced wholesale energy markets
• The Company offers SaaS and automation solutions for the trading and scheduling of physical and contract bulk energy and derivatives (including electricity, gas, liquid commodities and environmental and carbon trading)
• 50% of Australia’s bulk energy is traded using EOL systems. With offices in Australia and UK, the company has ~200 installations in 11 countries, many with blue-chip international energy companies.
“Looking forward, the domestic energy market will be undergoing significant change in the next 2-3 years, as regulatory adjustments to market structure (such as Australia’s cutting edge adoption of the 5-minute market) become reality. This requires front ended investment (which has already commenced) to allow customers to meet these but will create future opportunities as customers with legacy or less flexible product suites struggle to comply. The opportunities in Europe will expand as our sales focus in the UK and exploration of European niches flow through to revenues, and existing UK customers are exposed to the capability of products like Energy Flow...”
Water availability and quality is also looming as a 21st century challenge. There are a number of small companies around (remember Memtec?) that are active.
Fluence Corporation (FLC) was originally ASX listed but an Israeli company Emefcy Group (EMC) which had developed a Membrane Aerated Biofilm Reactor (MABR) product that enables wastewater to be reused for specific purposes such as crop irrigation. Emefcy had designed its technology for remote areas, invariably in poor parts of the world that suffer from severe water shortages. FLC is now a provider of decentralized water, wastewater treatment and reuse solutions for both municipal and industrial applications across the world. These are small-scale pre-engineered modular solutions that can be installed in weeks, not years. Market cap about $250mill, it is still cash flow negative (likely EBITDA positive by start of 2020) and has just had a capital raisIng exercise to fund expansion. As well as China and Africa, it is expanding into mining services, especially lithium brine.
Phoslock Environmental Technologies Limited (PET), formerly Phoslock Water Solutions Limited, provides water technologies and solutions for lake restoration, reservoir managements and water quality management in storm water ponds. Like many “environment” stocks, there has been much interest. From 40c mid-year, it went to $1.50 by July and has since retreated to below $1.00. Market cap is now close to $500million. While sales are increasing, cashflow is still not positive. Newsflow has been constant, with accreditation and major projects in China, restoration in the Florida Everglades, contracts in Europe and Brazil. Most large projects are multi-stage; success in current stage should lead to significant work in the next stage.
De.mem Limited (DEM) is a Singaporean-Australian de-centralised water and waste water treatment business that designs, builds, owns and operates water and waste water treatment systems for its clients. Established in 2013, the company has offices in Singapore, Perth (Australia), Brisbane (Australia), and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). Market cap is small at under $50million, there are demands on cash flow which is negative, with Placements and other raisings occurring.
DEM has been working with mining companies, and Building Infrastructure projects. It has telegraphed moving into Food & Beverage and see it as a growth sector
- The industry appears fragmented and in the stage of consolidation, where comprehensive solutions can be developed. However, most systems are small-scale, usually under $2million.
- Some 60% of sales are of the equipment, then 30% in BOT with maintenance. Consumables make up the rest …acquisitions should see this grow
- A Tasmanian company PumpTech has recently been acquired as has a German company, Geutec, which develops, manufactures and sells chemicals-based products and solutions for industrial waste water treatment to customers across Germany and Europe. Geutec’s range of water treatment chemicals including coagulants, cleaners and antiscalants is often sold in conjunction with membranes
SECOS Group (ASX: SES), with its proprietary technology across an 11-patent family, sits at the cutting edge of
sustainable packaging. With an annual revenue in excess of $21 million, SECOS supplies biodegradable and Biohybrid™ resins, sustainable packaging products and high-quality cast films to a global base of blue chip customers. However, in a market where hydrocarbon based and probably single-use plastics are cheap and ubiquitous, the company and many others are struggling to gain market share. Market Cap is $25million
There is a sales growth focus on high-margin applications in Biopolymer resin, film & bags
• Targeted sales growth of Biopolymer film & bags direct to Brand, Pet Shop Distributors, Counties, Councils, Waste Companies & hygiene film customers
• Focus on Biohybrid & Compostable sales to large Corporates looking to meet ‘Sustainability Targets’ around renewables
SES is also looking at Home Compostable resin for food and packaging applications.
Calix Ltd (CLX) has been listed for just over one year. The company positions itself as developing unique, patented technology to provide industrial solutions that address global sustainability challenges. The core technology is being used to develop more environmentally friendly solutions for advanced batteries, crop protection, aquaculture, wastewater, and carbon reduction, mainly using Magnesium Hydroxide liquid. A recent acquisition of a USA company (IER) has seen customers and sales double, with a greater global presence. .. From their website:
The core technology is an Australian novel, patented “kiln” that produces “mineral honeycomb” – very highly active minerals. Calix is using these minerals, which are safe and environmentally friendly, to improve waste water treatment, biogas production and phosphate removal (SDG 6 and 14), help protect sewer assets from corrosion (SDG 9), help improve food production from aquaculture and agriculture with reduced chemical use (SDG 2, 14 and 15), and developing new battery materials (SDG 7 and 13).
Many of these projects are in the initial stages of development with much investment to be made to achieve scalable outcomes. Some projects are dependent on research funding. The company has been listed since July 2018. With announcements the shareprice tends to run up, only to retreat again. Market Cap is approx. $80million.
Genex Power Limited (GNX) is a power generation development company. The Company is focused on innovative clean energy generation and electricity storage solutions. The Company has a development pipeline of up to 770MW of renewable energy generation and storage projects within its portfolio, underpinned by the Kidston Renewable Energy Hub in far-north Queensland. (this is known as “pumped hydro”, using a series of tunnels between two abandoned mine pits at different elevations). Funding is provided from equity as well as concessional debt through Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF). Financial close for the project should occur soon and term sheets are under negotiation. Market Cap is around $90 million.
New Energy Solar (NEW) was established in November 2015 to invest in a diversified portfolio of solar assets across the globe and help investors benefit from the global shift to renewable energy. The Business acquires large scale solar power plants with long term contracted power purchase agreements. In addition to attractive financial returns, this strategy generates significant positive environmental impacts for investors. Since establishment, New Energy Solar has raised over A$500 million of equity, acquired a portfolio of world-class solar power plants, and has a deep pipeline of opportunities primarily across the United States and Australia.
Since listing on the ASX nearly two years ago, the shareprice has declined from $1.50 to $1.20; earnings have increased and dividends paid. Current market cap is around $480million.
Redflow Limited (RFX) is an Australian company focusing on manufacturing and development of zinc-bromine flow batteries designed for stationary energy storage applications. RFX's key products are Zcell residential battery and ZBM2 batteries for industrial, commercial, telecommunications and grid-scale deployment. The market for energy storage has matured and grown but intensity of competition has also intensified. While the concept is attractive and flow cell batteries have better characteristics for stationary storage, manufacturers have had a difficult time competing against Lithium-ion and other suppliers, on a cost basis. Listed at $1.00 in 2011, sales were sluggish for many years and have only just picked up; the share price now languishes around 5c. After failing to establish a facility in Mexico, there has been a successful launch and ramp-up in manufacturing of Redflow’s zinc bromine (ZBM) flow batteries in their Thailand factory. In December 2018, RFX manufactured 150 batteries in the month, proving the ability to manufacture quality batteries at volume (demand is not to these levels, however).
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I am sure there are many other listed stocks in the space... these are just ideas. And the nature of recently listed and possibly fast growing innovative companies is that an ASX listing may provide liquidity and an ability to monetise exit strategies for earlier investors. (so beware!!)