Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Investment implications of Climate Change

Yes, we have seen the benefits of the Marshall Plan in 70 years of peace and economic progress in Europe and Japan.

One of the US's best efforts in international relations, I wonder if Trump has heard of it ?

Also worth remembering this was a very big boost to US industry at the time and was an essential part of stabilising a Europe that was very open to communist influence/pressure.
https://www.marshallfoundation.org/marshall/the-marshall-plan/history-marshall-plan/
 
Do you think China will give us loans and send experts after the fire?
I understand that they have a belt and a road they'd like to sell us.

My point (if I had one; I can't remember) is that global cooperation, including "aid", can benefit both the "receiver" and the "giver". If there is to be a successful global effort on AGW, it will have to involve funding and tech transfer from the current developed to the developing countries. I can certainly see Europe and Japan, as current developed countries, being ready to participate in that effort. If they start subsidising non-fossil fuel power stations and transport in China and India, we could see a change very quickly.
 
I understand that they have a belt and a road they'd like to sell us.

My point (if I had one; I can't remember) is that global cooperation, including "aid", can benefit both the "receiver" and the "giver". If there is to be a successful global effort on AGW, it will have to involve funding and tech transfer from the current developed to the developing countries. I can certainly see Europe and Japan, as current developed countries, being ready to participate in that effort. If they start subsidising non-fossil fuel power stations and transport in China and India, we could see a change very quickly.
Europe developed vs China developing is a fairy tale by people whose vision of the world is a 30y old Contiki tour trip
Most of Europe is now under undevelopment.gdp figures are a wrong index....as for Japan helping China.... ROL
But i agree about mutual benefit of economic help...as per belt road chinese program
 
Steel-making and concrete emissions however make up 10% of national (and global) emissions and are much harder to reduce. ... There are no known ways to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in cement production but alternatives to cement are being researched....
check Calix CXL
..Since 1990, the largest multinational cement companies have reduced their CO2 emissions by 20-25 percent. They have done so by improving energy efficiency and using waste-derived fuels and raw materials, as well as replacing the energy-intensive clinker by other constituents in cement or concrete.

But in order to reach the EU’s emissions reductions targets by 2050, carbon capture technologies need to be applied to the majority of cement plants, and Calix’s technology is uniquely placed to support the industry to achieve these targets in a timely, effective and efficient manner....

The LEILAC Project (www.project-leilac.eu) is a Eu21m (~A$34m) project (Eu12m is funded by the EU Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation program) piloting Calix technology in CO2 abatement for the lime and cement industries.

As part of this project, Calix is leading a consortium of some of the world's largest cement and lime companies, as well as leading European universities and research institutes.
LEILAC (Low Emissions Intensity Lime And Cement) technology is based upon Calix’s patented direct separation “calcination” (kiln)
 
Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... Investment Implications of Climate Change: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused), it probably isn't important to dwell on the mechanics or veracity of climate change; just enough to accept that if this is the consensus view, it would be silly to fight it. I mean, if decisions and quotas are made by the political process, and they will, it would be sensible to get on board.

That said, first of all
"If you ignore the science when you build a bridge, the bridge falls down."
I would have thought it's more of an engineering challenge!!

So, engineering. No going back. Nearly eight billion people on earth (twice as many when I was born). They (we) all want water, food, safety, a future. And after experiencing hot showers and soft pillows and adequate food and all that, there's no desire to go back. And there are billions wanting a fridge, a car, a job, (insert aspiration). We have built a complex, interdependent (post modern? post industrial?) world and, other than doing a Musk, this is all we have. People aren't going to give up electricity, individual mobility, consumerism. But there will be regulation and mandated outcomes

As a believer in the efficient allocation of capital to achieve outcomes, I quite like the Schumpeterian view of Creative Destruction. So, and I use a barbell approach to investing, I drew up a list of minnows (that's where Risk v Reward is at the most dynamic ) on the ASX, to investigate and possibly invest in.

First up, the instinctive reaction to Buy Lithium (or Cobalt, or Graphite) has not produced many winners. So, here goes, I’ll list a few companies that have ‘green credentials” and let you look into them further.

• Energy One Limited (ASX:EOL) is a leading independent global supplier of Energy Trading and Risk Management (ETRM) Systems
• More than 10 years’ experience providing software solutions to high quality customers trading in complex and fast-paced wholesale energy markets
• The Company offers SaaS and automation solutions for the trading and scheduling of physical and contract bulk energy and derivatives (including electricity, gas, liquid commodities and environmental and carbon trading)
• 50% of Australia’s bulk energy is traded using EOL systems. With offices in Australia and UK, the company has ~200 installations in 11 countries, many with blue-chip international energy companies.

“Looking forward, the domestic energy market will be undergoing significant change in the next 2-3 years, as regulatory adjustments to market structure (such as Australia’s cutting edge adoption of the 5-minute market) become reality. This requires front ended investment (which has already commenced) to allow customers to meet these but will create future opportunities as customers with legacy or less flexible product suites struggle to comply. The opportunities in Europe will expand as our sales focus in the UK and exploration of European niches flow through to revenues, and existing UK customers are exposed to the capability of products like Energy Flow...”

Water availability and quality is also looming as a 21st century challenge. There are a number of small companies around (remember Memtec?) that are active.

Fluence Corporation (FLC) was originally ASX listed but an Israeli company Emefcy Group (EMC) which had developed a Membrane Aerated Biofilm Reactor (MABR) product that enables wastewater to be reused for specific purposes such as crop irrigation. Emefcy had designed its technology for remote areas, invariably in poor parts of the world that suffer from severe water shortages. FLC is now a provider of decentralized water, wastewater treatment and reuse solutions for both municipal and industrial applications across the world. These are small-scale pre-engineered modular solutions that can be installed in weeks, not years. Market cap about $250mill, it is still cash flow negative (likely EBITDA positive by start of 2020) and has just had a capital raisIng exercise to fund expansion. As well as China and Africa, it is expanding into mining services, especially lithium brine.

Phoslock Environmental Technologies Limited (PET), formerly Phoslock Water Solutions Limited, provides water technologies and solutions for lake restoration, reservoir managements and water quality management in storm water ponds. Like many “environment” stocks, there has been much interest. From 40c mid-year, it went to $1.50 by July and has since retreated to below $1.00. Market cap is now close to $500million. While sales are increasing, cashflow is still not positive. Newsflow has been constant, with accreditation and major projects in China, restoration in the Florida Everglades, contracts in Europe and Brazil. Most large projects are multi-stage; success in current stage should lead to significant work in the next stage.

De.mem Limited (DEM) is a Singaporean-Australian de-centralised water and waste water treatment business that designs, builds, owns and operates water and waste water treatment systems for its clients. Established in 2013, the company has offices in Singapore, Perth (Australia), Brisbane (Australia), and Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam). Market cap is small at under $50million, there are demands on cash flow which is negative, with Placements and other raisings occurring.

DEM has been working with mining companies, and Building Infrastructure projects. It has telegraphed moving into Food & Beverage and see it as a growth sector
- The industry appears fragmented and in the stage of consolidation, where comprehensive solutions can be developed. However, most systems are small-scale, usually under $2million.
- Some 60% of sales are of the equipment, then 30% in BOT with maintenance. Consumables make up the rest …acquisitions should see this grow

- A Tasmanian company PumpTech has recently been acquired as has a German company, Geutec, which develops, manufactures and sells chemicals-based products and solutions for industrial waste water treatment to customers across Germany and Europe. Geutec’s range of water treatment chemicals including coagulants, cleaners and antiscalants is often sold in conjunction with membranes

SECOS Group (ASX: SES), with its proprietary technology across an 11-patent family, sits at the cutting edge of sustainable packaging. With an annual revenue in excess of $21 million, SECOS supplies biodegradable and Biohybrid™ resins, sustainable packaging products and high-quality cast films to a global base of blue chip customers. However, in a market where hydrocarbon based and probably single-use plastics are cheap and ubiquitous, the company and many others are struggling to gain market share. Market Cap is $25million

There is a sales growth focus on high-margin applications in Biopolymer resin, film & bags
• Targeted sales growth of Biopolymer film & bags direct to Brand, Pet Shop Distributors, Counties, Councils, Waste Companies & hygiene film customers
• Focus on Biohybrid & Compostable sales to large Corporates looking to meet ‘Sustainability Targets’ around renewables
SES is also looking at Home Compostable resin for food and packaging applications.

Calix Ltd (CLX) has been listed for just over one year. The company positions itself as developing unique, patented technology to provide industrial solutions that address global sustainability challenges. The core technology is being used to develop more environmentally friendly solutions for advanced batteries, crop protection, aquaculture, wastewater, and carbon reduction, mainly using Magnesium Hydroxide liquid. A recent acquisition of a USA company (IER) has seen customers and sales double, with a greater global presence. .. From their website:

The core technology is an Australian novel, patented “kiln” that produces “mineral honeycomb” – very highly active minerals. Calix is using these minerals, which are safe and environmentally friendly, to improve waste water treatment, biogas production and phosphate removal (SDG 6 and 14), help protect sewer assets from corrosion (SDG 9), help improve food production from aquaculture and agriculture with reduced chemical use (SDG 2, 14 and 15), and developing new battery materials (SDG 7 and 13).

Many of these projects are in the initial stages of development with much investment to be made to achieve scalable outcomes. Some projects are dependent on research funding. The company has been listed since July 2018. With announcements the shareprice tends to run up, only to retreat again. Market Cap is approx. $80million.

Genex Power Limited (GNX) is a power generation development company. The Company is focused on innovative clean energy generation and electricity storage solutions. The Company has a development pipeline of up to 770MW of renewable energy generation and storage projects within its portfolio, underpinned by the Kidston Renewable Energy Hub in far-north Queensland. (this is known as “pumped hydro”, using a series of tunnels between two abandoned mine pits at different elevations). Funding is provided from equity as well as concessional debt through Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility (NAIF). Financial close for the project should occur soon and term sheets are under negotiation. Market Cap is around $90 million.

New Energy Solar (NEW) was established in November 2015 to invest in a diversified portfolio of solar assets across the globe and help investors benefit from the global shift to renewable energy. The Business acquires large scale solar power plants with long term contracted power purchase agreements. In addition to attractive financial returns, this strategy generates significant positive environmental impacts for investors. Since establishment, New Energy Solar has raised over A$500 million of equity, acquired a portfolio of world-class solar power plants, and has a deep pipeline of opportunities primarily across the United States and Australia.

Since listing on the ASX nearly two years ago, the shareprice has declined from $1.50 to $1.20; earnings have increased and dividends paid. Current market cap is around $480million.

Redflow Limited (RFX) is an Australian company focusing on manufacturing and development of zinc-bromine flow batteries designed for stationary energy storage applications. RFX's key products are Zcell residential battery and ZBM2 batteries for industrial, commercial, telecommunications and grid-scale deployment. The market for energy storage has matured and grown but intensity of competition has also intensified. While the concept is attractive and flow cell batteries have better characteristics for stationary storage, manufacturers have had a difficult time competing against Lithium-ion and other suppliers, on a cost basis. Listed at $1.00 in 2011, sales were sluggish for many years and have only just picked up; the share price now languishes around 5c. After failing to establish a facility in Mexico, there has been a successful launch and ramp-up in manufacturing of Redflow’s zinc bromine (ZBM) flow batteries in their Thailand factory. In December 2018, RFX manufactured 150 batteries in the month, proving the ability to manufacture quality batteries at volume (demand is not to these levels, however).
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I am sure there are many other listed stocks in the space... these are just ideas. And the nature of recently listed and possibly fast growing innovative companies is that an ASX listing may provide liquidity and an ability to monetise exit strategies for earlier investors. (so beware!!)
 
Have read the thread, because its an important one but, like many open fora, the narrative, with input, assertion and response, can drift a bit; it's time to get back to basics..... Investment Implications of Climate Change: (and this is a Stock Forum, Aussie focused), it probably isn't important to dwell on the mechanics or veracity of climate change; just enough to accept that if this is the consensus view, it would be silly to fight it. I mean, if decisions and quotas are made by the political process, and they will, it would be sensible to get on board.)

Believe it or not, that is exactly why @sir Rumpole started this thread, to get away from the political agenda of the "climate change thread", but guess what, this ended up railroaded also. :(
By the way a great post post and hopefully it gets the thread back on track, because as you say, it is the way forward.
Have you searched the codes of your suggested companies on the home page, I know we discussed Redflow at length, but they just seemed to lack market penetration.
 
came across this company making all the right noises
The five themes that shape [our] scenarios presently are electric vehicles; the challenges around resecuring the licence to operate; the decarbonisation of the power generation; the changing state of the biosphere and what that is going to mean for things like the way food is produced and water is used; and, finally, the replacement of primary production by recycled materials.
The demand-and-supply scenarios of these inputs inspire models that generate low, base and high watermarks for future pricing of the commodities [the company] produces and those it might imagine should one day be included in its portfolio...
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it's BHP by the way
 
POTY Dona..:). Great analysis.
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Came across a Finnish company, Solar Foods, that is developing quite ground breaking technology to make protein from air, electricity and water..
Bill call but could conceivably revolutionize food production across the world within 15 years.
Not cheap at the moment but it is still at pilot stage.

https://www.foodnavigator.com/Artic...e-most-environmentally-friendly-food-there-is
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51019798
 
For those with an interest; Jack Richards 'put' and 'call' postion on the anticipated short squeeze on TSLA, detailed in Jan 5th you-tube...

An Associated note The Shanghai Giga Factory 3000units/week Model3 capacity ... limited to 1000/week due to battery supply.
Industrial Policy for this country anyone??? see any dots to connect???
Not with this Cabinet of incompetents...
 
This story has been brewing for quite a while. I think however the current bushfire disaster will bring it to a head in terms of what is insured or insurable in Australia as the clear risks of CC disasters has to be factored into the insurance industry.

The runaway insurance effect

For most of us, the problem is in someone else’s backyard, in some other neighbourhood.
But for an increasing number of Australians, it’s right on their doorsteps. Many just don’t know it … yet. (but soon they are about to find out. ed)

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03...ls-australias-worst-affected-regions/10892710

 
To follow up the reference to Jack Rickards 'Put'&'Call' on TSLA. He unpacks his weeks trades in a You-tube on 12/Jan...
This is a 'how to' trouser(in this case) >$160k US in a week on approx $50k down...north of %300.
But you'd have to have an interest.
Apologies for straying outside Australian stocks...
 
With Blackrock's signaling last week, and it's signaling was weak; But adding now BIS's warning as to what it terms 'GreenSwan' event leading to a 'run for the doors' exiting of Carbon intensive business's leaving in Australia's case 'The Reserve Bank' as the only buyer for the the stock, worthless stock... Finance and Treasury in this country any comment???
Any Position???
Anything???
Given what we've seen of the of Morrison's 'War Gaming' skills... God help us because the god botherer wont.
 
And 2020 may be the year it goes seriously mainstream?
“Last but not least, I just returned from Davos [World Economic Forum], where everyone was focused on sustainability, the world’s perspective on company performance continues to rapidly expand beyond financial. From where we are today, the importance of managing aspects such as the carbon footprint will massively increase”
Christian Klein, Co-CEO, SAP SE
 
The US wildfires are now beyond catastrophic. The broader implications for financial markets, property markets and other investment areas is coming to the fore.

US wildfires could spark financial crisis, advisory panel finds
Home values, state tourism and local governments could be damaged, causing defaults and market disruptions

The devastating wildfires now sweeping across the western US are among the sparks from climate change that could ignite a financial crisis by damaging home values, state tourism and local government budgets, an advisory panel to a US markets regulator found.

Those effects could set off a cascade of events including defaults and market disruptions, undermining the economy and sparking a crisis, according to a report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
More than 85 significant fires are currently burning across the west, destroying communities in California, Oregon and Washington state.

“As we’ve seen in the past few weeks alone, extreme weather events continue to sweep the nation, from the severe wildfires of the west to the devastating midwest derecho and damaging Gulf coast hurricanes. This trend – which is increasingly becoming our new normal – will likely continue to worsen in frequency and intensity as a result of a changing climate,” said Rostin Behnam, CFTC commissioner.

“Beyond their physical devastation and tragic loss of human life and livelihood, escalating weather events also pose significant challenges to our financial system and our ability to sustain long-term economic growth,” said Behnam.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/10/us-wildfires-financial-crisis-markets-cftc-report
 
revisiting my post of a year ago (#167 in this thread).... Like most, that post was a thought bubble, treating a thematic as a set of investible possibilities and some that I had already taken small positions in.

Where are we now, 12 and a bit months later? Doing quite well, for my style of Identify, buy, monitor, hold (add to on occasion). Avoided the dogs and up on the rest. Covid downturn threw a few cheap offerings my way.

Energy One Limited (ASX:EOL) . Was $3.00, now $6.34.
I initially bought 2.5K in Oct '19, at $2.65, topped up 5K in the SPP in May '20 at $2.20. Received a dividend in Oct.
Reason for buying: liked the story. has some 50% of its market in Aust, which is growing as energy trading gets more complex with renewables, plus 5 minute market. Expanding into Europe. Profitable.

Fluence Corporation (FLC) . Was $0.45, now $0.24
Did not purchase.
Those that want this technology generally can't afford it? Africa is hard, China opaque.

Phoslock Environmental Technologies Limited (PET)
, Was $0.77, now $0.24
Did not purchase.
Did not like the over-reliance on China, a small company trying its luck in a big pond.

De.mem Limited (DEM). was $0.24, now $0.31
Purchased 25K In Dec '19 at $0.26, added 35K in Jun '20 at $0.16
I remember Memtec. Water and waste management in bite size contracts. Expanding through acquisiton. Singapore is a good base for growth

SECOS Group (ASX: SES), was $0.08, now $0.24
I did not purchase. Not convinced there was an identifiable silo, and priced for premium, discretionary market.

Calix Ltd (CLX) was $0.77, now $1.20
Purchased 10K in Dec '19 at $0.75, added 10K in May '20 at $0.71
Liked the technology story. Clearly the EU is driving change. Prepared to hold for a long time.

Genex Power Limited (GNX) was $0.22, now $0.24.
Did not purchase. Probably always a marginal proposition; too slow, too many boxes to tick, too far from markets.f

New Energy Solar (NEW) was $1.30, now $0.93
Did not purchase. Didn't pass the pub test. Too much emotional construct.

Redflow Limited (RFX) , was $0.43, now $0.35
Purchased 320K in Aug '20 at $0.24, sold all in Nov '20at $0.27
Never going to get the headlines, the subsidies or the pricing of Lithium. Figured it had reached a low, after the capital injection. Decided to take profits.

Of course, this is only one subset of the topic. The decarbonisation story, coupled with technology advances and digitisation of everything, means we are in a time of great change.
 
Just correcting a decimal point slippage

Redflow Limited (RFX) , was $0.043, now $0.035
Purchased 320K in Aug '20 at $0.024, sold all in Nov '20 at $0.027.

- still a profit, only smaller
 
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