CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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International markets traders banter
- Thread starter Trembling Hand
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we were....
CanOz
Oh, you think it's over already? I think this is only a very short pullback in the Qs and SPY.
Trembling Hand
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Stuff em'
Get yourself along to a prop shop and have a trading ball. Not another crap job.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Could be, we're at the bottom of that wedge on the SPX. I got a ton a sell signals on my Flipper again so i hope we don't chop around...sh** or get off the the bloody pot!
CanOz
Up up and away! Who knows about the breadth side of things, as usual the index could drift up while the components weaken. But I'm more confident than that.
Trembling Hand
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Funky action on the Honkers indexes. HSI going up HHI going down..... funky!! 
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Funky action on the Honkers indexes. HSI going up HHI going down..... funky!!
Cool, can you/do you spread trade that?
CanOz
Trembling Hand
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yeah....... spread my profit to other traders!!
I don't like spread trades or arb stuff. I like just having a bet for a direction. Haven't got the brain for market neutral.
JLM Financial
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Very interesting article for the bears out there. With reporting season underway in the U.S and the huge drops in some of these stocks I wonder who will be next.
http://www.businessinsider.com/some..._campaign=Feed:+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)
http://www.businessinsider.com/some..._campaign=Feed:+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)
Assuming you mean bet for the spread to narrow, why? You can see betting on the narrow has been a losing proposition for the last 20 mins of THs chart even as the potential 'reward' got bigger and bigger. Remember, you can be both long or short the spread - like the underlying - so you are exposed to directional risk of the spread.
Good to try on the sim.
CanOz
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Because i assumed that the market would revert to what it normally does, which is correlate.
No interest in trading a spread...just thought it was interesting.
CanOz
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Quote from Business insider -
The Fed is there to create liquidity when transactions become frozen due to fear and lack of confidence. That way normal business transacting can continue in such an environment. The fed is not there to "pump the economy when it's running too cold" unless of course it's Zimbabwe. Perhaps that's where business insider’s utopian economic principle guiding light comes from?
white_goodman
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Because i assumed that the market would revert to what it normally does, which is correlate.
No interest in trading a spread...just thought it was interesting.
CanOz
two markets can be highly correlated but still have the spread widen..
CanOz
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Yes, obviously. That's what was happening...
Another good example is WTI and Brent.
My point was that during an intra-day timeframe such as TH's was showing, the trade would have been to bet that the spread would narrow. I guess all divergences begin somewhere...
CanOz
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hmmmm....retail traders trying to nail correlative patterns and trade the spread........WAFWOT !
CanOz
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Hey Joules, how much does 100,000USD cost to buy in EUR?
Personally, the point I was trying to get across is that the idea shouldn't be to just bet on the spread reverting, it has its own directional risk!
Correlation between correlated instruments has other uses though as when returns are 'normal' sectors tend to de-correlate, when returns are 'fat-tailed' correlation between sectors rises rapidly.
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Hey Joules, how much does 100,000USD cost to buy in EUR?
Personally, the point I was trying to get across is that the idea shouldn't be to just bet on the spread reverting, it has its own directional risk!
Correlation between correlated instruments has other uses though as when returns are 'normal' sectors tend to de-correlate, when returns are 'fat-tailed' correlation between sectors rises rapidly.
nothin wrong with getting bias...... i like TLT v SPX spread....but it's womble bets from a retail perspective...... agree that the work that goes into there they go/now they dont has rubbish r/r and mostly because the context of spreads in the lead/lag is fuzzier for a retail player than a single instrument (nothing to lead or lag)
gad save me, i've fallen into academia.....again
now we are talking!
I like this to measure relative preference bonds vs stocks. I find 60 days generally provides a good level of S/R to watch for preference changes. Done well over all the major market declines I've tested except the flash crash. Having tested a whole bunch of different instruments for bonds and stocks I picked SPY and BND (interchangeable with AGG).
I've been working on a similar chart for the returns on a couple of bullish/bearish options strategies.
EDIT: Of course, before 2001, things between stocks and bonds were pretty much inverse to what they are now, so preference changing back then had lower utility and returns IIRC.
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my fave correlation pic 
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