Trembling Hand
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LOL They have to be taking the piss?
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... yeah, I remember I got caught on the wrong side of one of those "sweeps"
a few months back and rang the Co. ... to be fair they admitted rogue data and fixed the error, but I just wonder how many punters take the loss without checking whether they have been screwed or not ....It's a bit scary if you were holding a large position though- Joined
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Surely that's dodgy data.
Should of had a couple of bids in
Should of had a couple of bids in
Trembling Hand
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Last edited:
Trembling Hand
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Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
All about this,
If ya wanna know more have a look here,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2017/03/that-is-how-they-do-it.html
All about this,
If ya wanna know more have a look here,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2017/03/that-is-how-they-do-it.html
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Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
All about this,
Intentional 7 years to the day or coincidence?
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Yeah I thought that myself re the bids
The data hasn't been fixed either ..... I couldn't be bothered ringing them about it so in the end I just went into the Meta trader history and deleted the 2 rouge bars myself cause it was screwing up my visuals
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Interesting stuff and possibly a watershed moment in time , thank youHistoric event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
All about this,
View attachment 70465
If ya wanna know more have a look here,
http://tremblinghandtrader.typepad.com/trembling_hand_trader/2017/03/that-is-how-they-do-it.html
Trembling Hand
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Hey don't you plan ahead 7 years?
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Hi Trembling Hand, good post with some interesting charts, thanks.
One comment though, you say there was no reason but I think there was one and it was discussed beforehand by David Stockman (who was, amongst other things, Director of OMB under Reagan).
I don't follow him closely at all (I'm a leftie!), but a couple of weeks ago did see him make the prediction of trouble for the market after March 15th which was the date the US debt ceiling would be hit and wrote it in my notepad of pundit predictions which is a fun game to see who actually makes useful calls.
https://dailyreckoning.com/countdown-to-crisis/ (just one of the many posts about this he seems to have made in the weeks preceding the debt ceiling issue).
If you had sold the US market on the 15th, which was a decent up-day, it would have been the recent swing high.
One comment though, you say there was no reason but I think there was one and it was discussed beforehand by David Stockman (who was, amongst other things, Director of OMB under Reagan).
I don't follow him closely at all (I'm a leftie!), but a couple of weeks ago did see him make the prediction of trouble for the market after March 15th which was the date the US debt ceiling would be hit and wrote it in my notepad of pundit predictions which is a fun game to see who actually makes useful calls.
https://dailyreckoning.com/countdown-to-crisis/ (just one of the many posts about this he seems to have made in the weeks preceding the debt ceiling issue).
If you had sold the US market on the 15th, which was a decent up-day, it would have been the recent swing high.
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Hey don't you plan ahead 7 years?
True but I am sure you found lots of interesting things in the past 7 years but you chose this one too return.
First of many blogs is probably a better question???
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So If i had to sum up my trading I would say I have a list of 6-8 trades in total which I look for. There's a base concept and chart pattern behind each trade and then the more confirming factors I can find to support the set up the better I deem the trade to be. I should also note that of the 6-8 sets ups, only certain ones apply in certain conditions, for example if we are trending down, there's several bullish set ups which are 'not applicable' and are to be ignored given the current market condition.
As a reminder of my context/style, I'm looking for swing style trades, risk 6-8 to make 30 type thing, hold period 15 minutes to several hours.
What I'm finding, and whether this is to do with current market conditions or just how I'm 'seeing it' at the moment, is that some of the trades which are 'not applicable' seem to be working quite well and by not taking them I'm leaving money on the table, as well as finding myself at times going a little longer than I would like between trades as I patiently stare at my screen waiting for my areas of interest to into play. There's something to be said for 'being in the market' to assist with how well you are seeing it in my view.
Example is tonight: Given mkt conditions I'm only really looking to come from the short side as I deem it to be the better R:R scenario at this stage, yet when I see a set up like the attached I feel I need to take it.
If I deemed this a balanced or bullish mkt this is a slam dunk buy and hold, yet due to conditions it was not in my pre market play book.
Thinking I'm going to make a slight adjustment. Namely to still take these entries where the R:R looks ripe and I think its a good set up and just be willing to exit for a scalp type trade (although still need good R:R). In effect be willing to risk 3-4 to make 8-10, capture the initial swing then limit exit rather than look for the larger swing run. I'm wanting to introduce a scalp type trade which is trading against what I deem to be the broader market but the short term set up is just to good to pass up.
Saying it another way - if I think the trend is down, short trades should be held for a long period of time, long trades should be very selective and held for only brief periods.
Interested in thoughts from those in the room - Am I kidding myself and inherently trying to move back to my short term bond scalping ways, or is there something to be said for trying to vary my planned hold time given my market perception.
As a reminder of my context/style, I'm looking for swing style trades, risk 6-8 to make 30 type thing, hold period 15 minutes to several hours.
What I'm finding, and whether this is to do with current market conditions or just how I'm 'seeing it' at the moment, is that some of the trades which are 'not applicable' seem to be working quite well and by not taking them I'm leaving money on the table, as well as finding myself at times going a little longer than I would like between trades as I patiently stare at my screen waiting for my areas of interest to into play. There's something to be said for 'being in the market' to assist with how well you are seeing it in my view.
Example is tonight: Given mkt conditions I'm only really looking to come from the short side as I deem it to be the better R:R scenario at this stage, yet when I see a set up like the attached I feel I need to take it.
If I deemed this a balanced or bullish mkt this is a slam dunk buy and hold, yet due to conditions it was not in my pre market play book.
Thinking I'm going to make a slight adjustment. Namely to still take these entries where the R:R looks ripe and I think its a good set up and just be willing to exit for a scalp type trade (although still need good R:R). In effect be willing to risk 3-4 to make 8-10, capture the initial swing then limit exit rather than look for the larger swing run. I'm wanting to introduce a scalp type trade which is trading against what I deem to be the broader market but the short term set up is just to good to pass up.
Saying it another way - if I think the trend is down, short trades should be held for a long period of time, long trades should be very selective and held for only brief periods.
Interested in thoughts from those in the room - Am I kidding myself and inherently trying to move back to my short term bond scalping ways, or is there something to be said for trying to vary my planned hold time given my market perception.
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P.S T/H you should go back to blogging
Trembling Hand
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Absolutely. You are not trading the same market from day to day. It literally is a different game from today to tomorrow and your setups/targets/frequency has to change to match IMO.
You just have to watch that your changes are a positive response rather than negative. Some good tells are the trade taken per day to daily range (ie more range, more opportunity, more trades) and the average win size increases with range. Otherwise you're cutting short to manage the volatility rather than the opportunity.
IMO.
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Yeah I like that metric.
Make no mistake, if I'm using the above concept as a way of getting out of trades early, not being tough mentally and not capturing the bigger moves that I should be then it's a mistake to be doing so. I need to be treating these scalp type trades as an addition to my arsenal, rather than excuse for not holding longer.
Also, apart of me thinks that for my development, and even in trading in general, if I'm not constantly trading new things then I may as well give it up anyway because you just cant rest on your laurels anyway.
I should also note these trades are likely a little more ladder/tape based rather than chart. They are naturally shorter term.
Another example was last night, we opened up and headed lower. Then right at 7250 (which was a bit of a longer term support zone anyway) someone came in and swept size 4-5 ticks on volume and then stuffed the bid and continued to wear it. Now longer term the trend is still down and that order doesn't change the market, but there's enough justification to risk a couple of points looking for that to be the initial swing low and maybe collect 6-7 points leaning against him. The key difference is if I view the market is balanced or up trending I need to sit there and run it, whereas in a fleety, down trending mkt taking the 6-7 and moving on is probably the correct play.
Thinking out loud - feel free to post opinions
Trembling Hand
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LOLz at the DAX......
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Historic event. First blog post in 7 years.... to the day.
All about this,
Just an observation re your blog TH ..... Very similar range/price/volume action back on 9th-13th September.
Back in Sept it ranged for about 8 weeks after the initial retrace before the sweep/spike to new highs (9th-10th November) ....
If a similar pattern follows through it could range between 20500 and 20900 over the next few weeks??
If it moves too quick out of the range (either direction) I'd be backing a downside move ..... but I'd give myself a 50% chance of getting that right
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View attachment 70481
A quick follow up on this ......
Today Axi had another 100 tick rogue spike to the downside. I emailed the Co. and asked for clarification.
They admitted an issue with a third party data provider, and assured any clients adversely affected would have been reimbursed ....
Fair enough I guess .... i asked if they could tell me the third party provider (knowing too well they wouldn't ..... they advise they cannot disclose ... as expected.
Anyway, off the back of the spike I shorted the several other Index's for a short term swing figuring a rogue spike in any direction must mean something ..... Closed all those for a small profit but still holding an SPI short till a half hr after the US open or until stopped out ....
Only peanut trades but nice to get a couple in the right direction for a change lol ... open SPI trade below ... Obviously it will blow out now its public knowledge
A quick follow up on this ......
Today Axi had another 100 tick rogue spike to the downside. I emailed the Co. and asked for clarification.
They admitted an issue with a third party data provider, and assured any clients adversely affected would have been reimbursed ....
Fair enough I guess .... i asked if they could tell me the third party provider (knowing too well they wouldn't
..... they advise they cannot disclose ... as expected.Anyway, off the back of the spike I shorted the several other Index's for a short term swing figuring a rogue spike in any direction must mean something
..... Closed all those for a small profit but still holding an SPI short till a half hr after the US open or until stopped out ....Only peanut trades but nice to get a couple in the right direction for a change lol ... open SPI trade below ... Obviously it will blow out now its public knowledge
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From ZH , the news is in the price , much same today probably ...
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