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Agreed T/H but for the last 7 years we are supposed to buy it here.
International markets traders banter
- Thread starter Trembling Hand
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Trembling Hand
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Yeah but this time it's different......
....
skc
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Yeah but this time it's different......
There was always a lot of worries in the market... China, end of QE, Brexit, Trump etc. But now there seems to be lots of optimism. Trump will be good for growth. Yes he's a nut but he will be good for growth. That's all I can hear these days.
When all the optimism is priced in the market is euphoric, that's obviously the danger time.
Yes... that's the magical thing about the market. Even though there is really only one market for everyone, it somehow magically knows that if you buy here (like you should have for the past 7 years), it will crash 30% just for you.
CanOz
Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!
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Volatility is the lowest it's been for a while....
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I like that point and I agree with it. Longer term I'm only 50% invested here and feel like it's too much...
I believe there are signs it's turning. FTSE printed a big reversal on the monthly, USD looks like an incredible fake out to the upside, gold looking as strong as it has in a long time (assuming this is a lower high forming). Not to mention the rates discussion. Tide feels like it may be turning.
For so long the game has been buy the USD buy America stocks despite everything being broken.
Trembling Hand
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Ha funny you should say that. Had a bbq with two accounts on the weekend, ultra conservative, they were telling me that they are thinking of putting money into the USA market because of Trump will be good for.... something, not sure as I stopped listening and had another beer.
Probably need a little panic here to smack down the market to actually change anything first.
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We have just had 4th consecutive SP500 close inside a 0.1% band , thats crazy
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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The market has been enthusiastic with the Trump Presidency and is now pricing in a Golden Age of prosperity. Hint of cynicism.
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So I feel as though in recent months I've really started to get my head around the intra day thing on the FTSE.
When I look back this has been a years in the making (and I mean years) but I'm finally at a point where I feel like I have a level of trust in what I'm doing.
Coming from the bond futures market making/scalping background I've always found it hard to be able to 'let it run'. In effect i had 18 months drilled into me of "if you are wrong get out" which is correct thinking but in those markets it was the next price. Very short term. Over the last several months I've finally been able to place trades, set the stop and be willing let it go without watching it tick for tick and panicking every time I see a 100 lot in the depth. In fact outside of key areas I try not look at the tape and truth be told it doesn't play a key part in my thinking - completely different to what I used to do.
The other thing I've been able to do is define my plan better. I think this has simply come from time & experience and whilst I would still class myself as discretionary, in effect I have a number of 'rules' which need to check out before I enter a trade. In fact the discretion only really shows itself in 2 ways, defining my levels pre market where I will be interested and then secondly what type of market are we in (up trending? balanced? etc). The rest I could probably code if I wanted to or atleast get pretty close.
In effect a trade sequence for me might be:
- define levels pre market
- define current market context and trading behaviour
- based on the above points outline the trade types I'm looking for
- look for price action which supports said trade types
- execute
I guess the point I'm making is up until recently the execute portion I've really struggled with, but I believe that's because I hadn't properly defined what I'm trying to do. In the past I used to just be like "it's bearish look for excuses to sell it" whereas now I need to justify my trades far better.
My recent results have not been stellar, but in thinking in a manner of "did I trade this correctly" rather than "did that make money" atleast I now have a good informational diary which allows me to understand my strengths/weakness and find what works
sorry for the ramble.
EDIT: A big shout out to Pav (I wonder if he reads this occasionally) because the time we spent on skype was very helpful to me. I could never 'get over the hurdle' whilst trading with him and it was entirely my fault, I've had to work through this on my own.
When I look back this has been a years in the making (and I mean years) but I'm finally at a point where I feel like I have a level of trust in what I'm doing.
Coming from the bond futures market making/scalping background I've always found it hard to be able to 'let it run'. In effect i had 18 months drilled into me of "if you are wrong get out" which is correct thinking but in those markets it was the next price. Very short term. Over the last several months I've finally been able to place trades, set the stop and be willing let it go without watching it tick for tick and panicking every time I see a 100 lot in the depth. In fact outside of key areas I try not look at the tape and truth be told it doesn't play a key part in my thinking - completely different to what I used to do.
The other thing I've been able to do is define my plan better. I think this has simply come from time & experience and whilst I would still class myself as discretionary, in effect I have a number of 'rules' which need to check out before I enter a trade. In fact the discretion only really shows itself in 2 ways, defining my levels pre market where I will be interested and then secondly what type of market are we in (up trending? balanced? etc). The rest I could probably code if I wanted to or atleast get pretty close.
In effect a trade sequence for me might be:
- define levels pre market
- define current market context and trading behaviour
- based on the above points outline the trade types I'm looking for
- look for price action which supports said trade types
- execute
I guess the point I'm making is up until recently the execute portion I've really struggled with, but I believe that's because I hadn't properly defined what I'm trying to do. In the past I used to just be like "it's bearish look for excuses to sell it" whereas now I need to justify my trades far better.
My recent results have not been stellar, but in thinking in a manner of "did I trade this correctly" rather than "did that make money" atleast I now have a good informational diary which allows me to understand my strengths/weakness and find what works
sorry for the ramble.
EDIT: A big shout out to Pav (I wonder if he reads this occasionally) because the time we spent on skype was very helpful to me. I could never 'get over the hurdle' whilst trading with him and it was entirely my fault, I've had to work through this on my own.
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The other thing I'd like to add to the above is that there will come a time when I really need to find some longer systems which work well. my longer term investment plan is to have a chunk of buy and hold for income and then have a chunk of trend following. Been with radgey for 18 months and have results have been sub par (altho admittedly short sample size) but I'd love a manner in which I could confidently take 15% a year out of the market on a longer term system - maybe i could pay peter 2 and 20
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Great post Kid and certainly not a ramble at all. I've bolded out some of your points for easy reference in the future.
I never personally followed through on Futs/ FX trading after failing so many times, but interestingly enough I use 'unwritten rules' not that dissimilar to yours when trading "specs with potential" which has worked out very well over the last 3 years .....
I think your "ramble" is a very good blue print for success. Cheers and well done on arriving at a relaxed trading position.
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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Can't compare the distant past too closely I reckon. For example population, wages, technology, Presidents, market sentiment, regulations and conflict all contribute to the present and future being different.
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Much envy, well done kid, awesome to hear
would kill for it to be as clear as you seem to see it now, I constantly feel like I have absolutely no idea what I'm doing/looking for, in a state of paralysis and unsure where to look or what to work on. Feels like I'm throwing darts at a board. Timing, patterns, 1m, 15m, daily, I see nothing, except big volume seems to make things pause or change direction. Blind as a bat, too thick to recognise the face in the crowd haha So it's good to hear of those who figure it out! Keep it up!- Joined
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Much envy, well done kid, awesome to hear
Far from figured it out matey but i feel as though I have a sense of of understanding and a plan for a change!!
Trembling Hand
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Interested KH ... re the change part. Are you meaning simply a change re your approach to your rules/entries etc as you mentioned above or are you looking to trading different instruments/different strategies to previously? Cheers.
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Current move on the DOW feels unnaturally steep but hard to say if or when the retrace will happen ... i wonder if this guy is holding DOW futures!
Lol ... I like the way they have the top of the ladder "roped" from above but no safety ropes for old mate who is a thousand metres high and a couple of seconds from permanent disability
Lol ... I like the way they have the top of the ladder "roped" from above but no safety ropes for old mate who is a thousand metres high and a couple of seconds from permanent disability
Trembling Hand
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Interesting stuff about the "melt up" last night from the nutbags over at ZH
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-...ltdown-here-reason-markets-inexplicable-surge
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What are your thoughts TH? ... Is the short covering scenario a possibility given the exponential curve of the DOW, or are the big boys simply taking the opportunity to push it to the limit with all the unabated exuberance in the market, and likely scaling into short positions on every higher high over the next X months?
I dont have true volume with my bucket shop data ... Is the volume telling a story at the moment?
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