International markets traders banter

[Logique]

I was surprised at the strength of the overnight rise on the SPX, up 25 to 1978 (+1.28%), especially with the FOMC yet to announce on interest rates.

 

[db94]

One possibility I'm thinking about is a final surge up (About 6-10%) for the U.S Market on the back of a favourable Fed decision, before commencing the major leg of a bear.

Comparison is from the ASX in February upon the RBA's last favourable decision.

I think the fed will have to raise rates to show that things are back on the mend and improving; or if not they'll have to be very clear as to why not to avoid market disruption. If they do raise rates, which I suspect as unemployment has also decreased a lot, the markets will rise (IMO the markets have factored in a rise in rates; buy the rumor, sell the news) and continue to do so with no bear leg. Just my opinion of course :

 

[cynic]

Crickey!!!

My mate Seng's hanging my shorts out to dry!!

 

[skyQuake]

XU1 and IFB1 moved 6% in a straight line
#justchinathings

 

[cynic]

XU1 and IFB1 moved 6% in a straight line
#justchinathings

Is that what people mean when they describe things being like "a bull in a China shop"?

 

[skc]

So who's up for a late night / early morning?

I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.

Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.

My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.

If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.

 

[Modest]

That will be two historical market events I get to witness in the span of a month. Damn straight I will be there with a couple of Carlton middies.

 

[cynic]

So who's up for a late night / early morning?

I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.

Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.

My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.

If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.

I'll be genuinely surprised if they don't raise by a smidgin.

Is 12.5 bps the least increment available ?

 

[CanOz]

So who's up for a late night / early morning?

I hope you've all got your popcorn / coffee / redbull / vodka / marshmallows / sleeping bag etc ready.

Even if you are not trading... it'd be a historical event just to witness.

My prediction: 12.5bps raise followed by very dovish commentary. Market sells off initially on the back of rate rise for may be 8-12 minutes, then rally hard into the close.

If rates are not raised... expect the opposite.

There's no way i'm staying up, or getting up for that crap. Easier to just stay flat until this non-sense is over. I'm flat intra-day and have been since Monday afternoon, flat my swing trade account and will be until next week.

Next up, the fiscal cliff IIIVIXIIIIVIII

 

[shouldaindex]

I'm more a fatalist, so think we're just playing out time before certain levels are hit on the downside.

What it does in the meantime I have no idea.

 

[CanOz]

Mods, please edit my double quote, a symptom of living behind the VPN....

 

[fiftyeight]

There's no way i'm staying up, or getting up for that crap. Easier to just stay flat until this non-sense is over. I'm flat intra-day and have been since Monday afternoon, flat my swing trade account and will be until next week.

Next up, the fiscal cliff IIIVIXIIIIVIII

Easier but much less exciting

 

[cynic]

I'll be genuinely surprised if they don't raise by a smidgin.

Is 12.5 bps the least increment available ?

Well I was right - I am genuinely surprised that they didn't lift!

 

[qldfrog]

not surprised actually, they can not unless they willingly want to crash the market, but what I am surprised by, is the absence of at least a minimal jump up in the US, at least pretending to be happy about it....
Gold went up, and the stock market down;
we may go straight down whereas i was expecting a rebound before the fall
interesting to see oz today, especially once the asia market opens;
if you have to sell, sell early today is my 2c view

 

[notting]

I thought they would hike but didn't think they should.
Definitly a sensible decision.
People need to stop looking backwards and assuming there is anything normal about lending rates having to be higher than 2.5% or something.
Zero is ideal, with no inflation nothing is wrong with that!

 

[DeepState]

Zero is ideal, with no inflation nothing is wrong with that!

Fed inflation expectations for PCE in 2016/17 are in the high end of 1-handle. On a real interest rate basis, the current settings are extremely accommodative. A counter-argument is that there is deleveraging going on from overly indebted positions in which case these settings are ideal to create a soft landing. This argument, however, is not being made by the Fed as yet.

 

[notting]

The FED is making a lot of sense now.

Have a look at this rant which was many months before the GFC when the FED wasn't making so much sense to those on the front line.

Pretty incredible considering what happened next

 

[sinner]

Rate hike is not happening man.

I remember I was in Hong Kong about 6 months ago for work, was watching Bloomberg with a colleague and all the talking heads were giving off very convincing noises about rate hikes and so on.

At the time the market implied probability of rate hike in September was like 70-80%.

I was trying to explain to him how they can't hike rates, because it would entail a reduction in their balance sheet (or significant real GDP growth) and I just couldn't see balance sheet reduction (or GDP growth) happening.

Fast forward to today, market implied probability of rate hike in Sept is <20%, basically the market is now pricing for March 2016 rate hike. Most everyone betting on the curve to steepen also got creamed as it continued to flatten.

Ask yourself, do you think the Fed balance sheet will contract or expand by March 2016? GDP to contract or expand? Because however you answer that is also the answer to the probability of rate hike.

As for QE, well, so long as the US Federal budget has a deficit larger than the trade deficit, I think we can expect more QEs and POMOs from the Fed. The less Treasury flow the rest of the world buys, the more flow the US corporate sector and Federal Reserve itself must buy.

market still looks like it's pricing a March 16 hike (using CME FedWatch). However the market has been consistently wrong on this for a year now. No real growth, no hike (since the balance sheet ain't shrinking).

 

[DeepState]

market still looks like it's pricing a March 16 hike (using CME FedWatch). However the market has been consistently wrong on this for a year now. No real growth, no hike (since the balance sheet ain't shrinking).

FWIW:

T-Bills are pricing a Dec 2015 Hike of 0.25%. Expectations have certainly been moved out for years though. This was just the latest instalment.

Puzzled abt no real growth comment.

 

[notting]

Some times the market offers you gifts!
There all over the joint at the moment.