International markets traders banter

[notting]

There you have it: in the past two weeks alone China has sold a gargantuan $106 (or more) billion in US paper just as a result of the change in the currency regime!

They are using their own stock market crash, to unsettle markets, so they can sell treasuries when everyone else is buying them. This is typical of the Chinese. They get the best price this way! This is predictable if you know them!
Throughout the rising of the US$ they have kept the Yuan peg which is the surprising thing. But not really. It's food inflation they they have little control over, other than keeping the Yuan strong ,against the US$, dropping that is going to leave an awful lot of em very hungry!!!
If your starving and the jails are full, hurling yourself in front of a dictators tank isn't such a difficult decision.

 

[tech/a]

DAX

We resume normal programming
Following the scheduled pause.

 

[cynic]

CFD provider just acknowledged their error and corrected the fill. After all what's a mere 600 points between friends!?

After this incident I decided it would be a good idea to reexamine some of my recent trades. It looks like something similar may have occurred yesterday. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20711 yesterday?

 

[cynic]

After this incident I decided it would be a good idea to reexamine some of my recent trades. It looks like something similar may have occurred yesterday. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the .HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20711 yesterday?

CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?

 

[CanOz]

CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?

Can't comment on the CFD Cynic, but the actual futures opened at 21153 yesterday on the HSI.

 

[cynic]

Can't comment on the CFD Cynic, but the actual futures opened at 21153 yesterday on the HSI.

Many thanks. I'll be taking this one further with them.

 

[Joules MM1]

t. minus .....and we're in launch positions already ?

 

[barney]

CFD provider has acknowledged an error and have adjusted the fill, however, their newly adjusted price still seems a long way shy of the open. Can anybody here confirm whether or not the HK 40 AUG 15 contract opened anywhere near 20820 yesterday?

Hey Cynic ...... two questions;

Name of the CFD provider, and

Do you have Charts of the prices they filled you at?


Make it three questions .... "City"??

 

[cynic]

Hey Cynic ...... two questions;

Name of the CFD provider, and

Do you have Charts of the prices they filled you at?


Make it three questions .... "City"??

Yes and no.

Yes it was indeed "City" (which as we already know was acquired by "Gain" last year),

and no I don't have charts, but I can tell you the erroneous prices I was given along with the subsequent amendments.

Firstly for the purpose of completeness, I make mention of the fact that, inside of market hours, spreads of 10 and 20 points respectively apply to the Cash and Aug 15 CFD contracts for this particular CFD provider. This information should be taken into account when comparing with prices offered elsewhere.

On the 26th I had limit buy orders for their Hong Kong 40 Cash CFD filled minutes after the open at prices ranging from 21480 to 21973. The size of the gap down at open combined with the range of levels on my limit orders alerted to the fact that something was clearly amiss. So I challenged the validity of same and thankfully it was promptly acknowledged to be an error and the four incorrect fills were all amended to 21376. At this point I was delighted that my provider had responded promptly and had accepted responsibility for their product performance.

If it hadn't been for the fact that the market had clearly gapped below at least three of those limit orders my suspicions might not have been so thoroughly aroused , and upon reflection, I started to get the distinct feeling that I could vaguely remember having noticed something similar at least once before. So I decided to investigate further by examining some recent trades.

Sure enough, seconds after the open on the 25th (previous day), a short limit order for the Aug 15 CFD had filled at 20691. Again I asked to have this investigated. Again an error was acknowledged and the price amended to 20800.

This last one will be queried further, as the price still seems somewhat inferior to the price that I would have expected based upon the market open of the actual futures contract.

The fact that I have now encountered this error on two consecutive days (I haven't looked back much farther ) leads me to wonder whether this has occurred by genuine mishap or intentional design! Much as I sincerely hope it is the former, I am becoming increasingly fearful that it may be the latter.

 

[Joules MM1]

t. minus .....and we're in launch positions already ?

we have separations...........

 

[sinner]

A bunch of US charts. Doesn't look awesome. :grenade:

sinner macro update (click the little green arrow from above quote to see the previous charts)

VIX - if you pay heed to the 15/VIX exposure rule mentioned in previous post we'd be looking at 50% maximum asset allocation to stocks at the current implied vol of 30:


Breadth. Looks even more horrible than it did before. But at least the index is catching down with reality:


TED spread, that rising slope mentioned previously definitely caught up with the markets, I could talk for days about what that blip at the end means:


sinners crude credit ratio JNK to IEF, nothing good to see here, we might speculatively be at some form of short term support:


Industrial metals, starting to get a little nuts. I reckon we will bottom soon and range for a year or ten:

 

[sinner]

Brent. Last time it was "cheaper input costs" vs "holy crap where is demand?" ...um...demand? hello? where are you? I heard a few traders say this is really bearish and the whole cheaper input costs meme is stupid (because a growing economy commands higher energy prices, not the other way around). $50 is not looking like support:


Baltic Dry Index BDI. Dry shipping down ~30% off the recent highs:


AAI investor sentiment (http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey) 6 month outlook. Looks like the previous migration has reversed, with bulls and bears alike departing the neutral category in ~equal amounts:


No valuations chart this time. Market Cap/GVA was a little bit higher than 1.8 as of last post, so you can approximately impute the current valuation based off the SP500 decline.

 

[CanOz]

Thanks sinner....much appreciated

 

[Joules MM1]

Thanks sinner....much appreciated

sticking with index longs hsi/spx/xjo until price says otherwise ......looked to me like some major lifting got done this morning.....the immediacey of it says stick with the levels

and on we go

 

[sinner]

sticking with index longs hsi/spx/xjo until price says otherwise ......looked to me like some major lifting got done this morning.....the immediacey of it says stick with the levels

and on we go

I'm a bit long, a tad under 30% net long in mostly megacaps everywhere but the US. a splash of REIT. The rest is in cash and gold. But then again, that's not too different from my allocation for the last few months.

 

[Joules MM1]

pats pockets....it was here last time i looked....

http://www.businessinsider.com.au/a-team-of-traders-at-goldman-sachs-lost-50-million-2015-8

Goldman Sachs’ distressed debt trading team is hurting.

The team has lost between $US50 million and $US60 million
so far this year, according to Laura J Keller and Michael J Moore at Bloomberg.

The distressed debt trading team sits inside the bank’s fixed income
unit in the securities division.

The U.S. investment bank lost money on a positions in the energy
sector and on the bonds of paper producer Verso Corp., according to the Bloomberg report.

and

Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

well, derr

:bekloppt: bye bye team

 

[barney]

Yes it was indeed "City"

On the 26th I had limit buy orders for their Hong Kong 40 Cash CFD filled minutes after the open at prices ranging from 21480 to 21973.

the four incorrect fills were all amended to 21376.

Sure enough, seconds after the open on the 25th (previous day), a short limit order for the Aug 15 CFD had filled at 20691. Again I asked to have this investigated. Again an error was acknowledged and the price amended to 20800.

Figured it might be City!

They were taking a few liberties with the gaps! At least they adjusted it once they were sprung but typically dodgy.

 

[cynic]

Figured it might be City!

They were taking a few liberties with the gaps! At least they adjusted it once they were sprung but typically dodgy.

Customer service were quick to investigate and remedy the fills and were also very patient when handling my complaint. So I am thankful for that aspect of the situation.

 

[CanOz]

Second leg to the bottom nearly ready.....Europe is showing signs that the rally is losing steam. The US however could be better supported on the next leg down....

So all eyes on Asia to day to kick things off...like this:

09:30*(CN) CHINA JULY INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: -2.9% V -0.3% PRIOR; YTD: -1.0% V -0.7% PRIOR (related EUR/USD USD/CNY AUD/USD PGJ FXI EUR/CNY EEM RUB/CNY AUD/CNY CNY/USD CYB) - Source TradeTheNews.com

Anyway, lets see how things pan out, but I've kept lots of powder dry for this next one...

 

[skyQuake]

Reckon that shakeout last night on the ES as very bullish. All the short term longs get stopped out, only to see the market much higher.
Retail will then start shorting which will help fuel the next leg up