International markets traders banter

[skc]

At the start of the year I threw out some ideas. Lets see,

Not a bad scorecard. Enjoy the holiday... just don't exchange your Yen until the minute you need to use it...

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Those who panicked when they heard QE must be regretting now. Although the Federal Reserve has now ended its quantitative easing (QE) program, the stock market is still rising.

It is interesting to see that U.S. equities recorded their fifth-straight week of gains. There are bull markets even in Asian and pacific region including frontier markets. Actually every pullback has created opportunities for stock market players in the current global bull market. Despite gloomy prediction by some it is going to be one of the longest bull markets that we ever had. Eventually this should reverse at some point and we cannot say when.

I think this powerful bull market is not going to end easily and we may see year end rally as well.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[rimtas]

I think this powerful bull market is not going to end easily and we may see year end rally as well.

From a long term perspective I would project All Ords in a 30.000-40.000 range in the 15-25 year period. Despite short-term fractal fluctuations, there is one long term Copy Fractal pointing to the upcoming advance.

So maybe it is better to say not "going to end easily", but instead-"it has a difficult start". Because we probably are nowhere near the finish but rather closer to the start, and it is a tough one. But it will catch a speed in the years to come.

 

[dlineinvestor]

Not that I'm living by it ... but if there is to be the "so called xmas rally" it's not looking good with all the neg data for Australia.
The US markets to me look overbought and upon opening Monday, we shall see if this bull run continues.

Oil down
AUD down
Iron Ore down
Gold down

ASX in poor health
Where is the catalyst for a possible xmas rally ?
Subject for banter
for sure

 

[Wysiwyg]

Not that I'm living by it ... but if there is to be the "so called xmas rally" it's not looking good with all the neg data for Australia.

It is a figment of imagination. There is no difference in price action to any other time of year.

 

[dlineinvestor]

It is a figment of imagination. There is no difference in price action to any other time of year.

You mean you don't believe in Santa ?
Shame on you ... lol

Surely your familiar with the concept (XMAS rally ? seasons in the markets ?)
All to be taken with a grain of salt or two mind you but surely a valid subject for conjecture.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

Finally DOW passed 18,000 for the first time.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-match-for-blue-chips-as-dow-tops-18-000.html

2014 Headwinds No Match for Blue Chips as Dow Tops 18,000

Rise of USD is likely to accelerate in 2015 and 2016 as well. On the other hand currencies such as AUD, CAD and NZD will depreciate against USD and emerging currencies in 2015 and 2016. US stock market and other developed markets may have strong pullback or correction in 2015. There will be volatility in both stock and commodity market. Best places to park money in 2015 are less appreciated markets, assets, emerging sectors, currencies, assets, commodity and stocks. Consumer staples, emerging commodity stocks, currencies and selected consumer discretionary stocks should outperform the market in 2015 and 2016. China and India is likely to drive the Asian region to particularly strong growth. Selected Asian frontier and emerging markets are poised to outperform in 2015. Their currencies also should stay strong especially against commodity currencies such as NZD, AUD and AUD.

Have a great Christmas and Happy New year 2015!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[waterbottle]

Does anyone have any explanation as to just WTF was happening in the world when this occurred:


That is an almost 50% drop in valuation in approximately 15 minutes. R.I.P stop loss, I hardly knew thee.
As I write this, IB is showing that the AUDCHF pair has lost 13% - I have never seen a double digit % loss for any pair.

EDIT: Just checked google finance. Swiss franc has decoupled from Euro. Interest rates heading deep into negative territory. Reserve bank of India also decides to cut rates.
References:
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/swiss-national-bank-euro-franc-exchange-rate.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/b...-chief-backs-growth-policies-in-the-modi.html

 

[waterbottle]

Does anyone have any explanation as to just WTF was happening in the world when this occurred:
View attachment 61140

That is an almost 50% drop in valuation in approximately 15 minutes. R.I.P stop loss, I hardly knew thee.
As I write this, IB is showing that the AUDCHF pair has lost 13% - I have never seen a double digit % loss for any pair.

EDIT: Just checked google finance. Swiss franc has decoupled from Euro. Interest rates heading deep into negative territory. Reserve bank of India also decides to cut rates.
References:
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/business/swiss-national-bank-euro-franc-exchange-rate.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/16/b...-chief-backs-growth-policies-in-the-modi.html

It seems like quite a few traders have blown their accounts over this. There was massive volatility in the AUDUSD today and this seems to be its origin. Other pairs experienced the same thing. I'm not sure if other instruments were also exposed.

If you have made substantial losses or blown your account, please pause before doing anything drastic.

LIFELINE Ph 13 11 14

 

[waterbottle]

Here's the big one. I have no words.



LIFELINE Ph 13 11 14

 

[CanOz]

My goodness, what a day for the FX traders....I was short CAD, but that's it. Had a trailing stop and got taken out.....lucky it wasn't a CHF trade!

 

[waterbottle]

My goodness, what a day for the FX traders....I was short CAD, but that's it. Had a trailing stop and got taken out.....lucky it wasn't a CHF trade!

There was lots to be made on the AUDUSD after the volatility ended but I was too clenched up to make a move

 

[CanOz]

There was lots to be made on the AUDUSD after the volatility ended but I was too clenched up to make a move

F*** me, I bet you were!

 

[waterbottle]

So what does this mean in the short term? I would imagine that alot of money would be heading outside of Europe?

 

[CanOz]

So what does this mean in the short term? I would imagine that alot of money would be heading outside of Europe?

Well, some has gone to the other safe haven....gold

 

[waterbottle]

Some talk about brokers going under because of the move

 

[avion]

Skimmed some of DAX last nite. The DOM was moving so fast i could not execute with mouse, had to use hotkeys and i have a 30" monitor with large DOM. You don't see that very often

 

[waterbottle]

Skimmed some of DAX last nite. The DOM was moving so fast i could not execute with mouse, had to use hotkeys and i have a 30" monitor with large DOM. You don't see that very often

I hope someone captured this and puts it on youtube. Probably just a blur of red and blue.

One of the FX brokers has already thrown in the towel

------------------------------------ ------------------------------------ ------------------


The dramatic move on the Swiss franc fueled by the Swiss National Bank's unexpected policy reversal of capping the Swiss franc against the euro has resulted in rare volatility and illiquidity. Both our primary and backup liquidity providers became unresponsive or illiquid for hours after the event. The majority of clients in a franc position were on the losing side and sustained losses amounting to far greater than their account equity. When a client cannot cover their losses it is passed onto us.

ALL OPEN POSITIONS MUST BE CLOSED BY 5PM NEW YORK TIME OR THEY WILL BE AUTOMATICALLY CLOSED AT THAT TIME. NEW POSITIONS CANNOT BE OPENED AS OF THIS TIME.

ALL CLIENT FUNDS ARE IN SEGREGATED ACCOUNTS AND NEVER USED FOR LP MARGINS. 100% OF POSITIVE CLIENT EQUITY OR BALANCE IS SAFE AND WITHDRAWABLE IMMEDIATELY.

Global Brokers NZ Ltd. STP's 100% of order flow and has sustained a total loss of operating capital. GBL can no longer meet regulatory minimum capitalization requirements of N$1,000,000 and will not be able to resume business. Losses incurred on trades that could not be exited due to illiquidity were losses incurred directly with the liquidity provider and we do not have the ability to reimburse those. Please note the interbank market for francs was illiquid for hours after the event and no traders with an open franc position were able to close it for a significant period of time, at any broker.

News of the impact of this event on companies and traders is just beginning to come to light. As Directors and Shareholders we would like to offer our sincerest apologies for this devastating turn of events, and to thank you for being such a supportive group.

We ask that you place withdrawal requests for your account balance at your earliest convenience and allow for minor delays as our team begins to experience higher than usual service volumes.

Best Regards,

Excel Markets, Global Brokers NZ Ltd

 

[waterbottle]

So what happens if 22 Jan comes around and the ECB doesn't print?

 

[CanOz]

FXCM is now in trouble as well.....

I've taken no chances and cleaned out my brokerage accounts...

CanOz