International markets traders banter

[MARKETWINNER]

USA stock advanced despite Geo political crises. Lately among Asian markets, emerging and frontier market such as China and Sri-Lanka are showing some strength. Grain is in bear market territory now. Sooner than later commodity currencies such AUD, NZD and CAD too will go to bear market territory. Among commodities tea, coco and live stocks will have demand. Listed Meat stocks are going to shine more in the coming quarters. These type of commodities have become emerging commodities now. In addition, there is some hope for aluminium too. In the mean time dairy producers will have lower margin as dairy prices remain under pressure. Fall of NZD is imminent.

http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...-problem-hits-us-chicken-supply-lifts-prices/

Roosters' fertility problem hits U.S. chicken supply, lifts prices

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[kid hustlr]

Anyone in here got the data/ability to put together a market breadth type analysis of the S+P? Advance/Decline, 52 week high type stuff? Trembling Hand used to do it from time to time but he's MIA these days.

 

[CanOz]

Anyone in here got the data/ability to put together a market breadth type analysis of the S+P? Advance/Decline, 52 week high type stuff? Trembling Hand used to do it from time to time but he's MIA these days.

i can do this kid, will have a go when i get home tonight...

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks Canoz

 

[ThingyMajiggy]

i can do this kid, will have a go when i get home tonight...

How do you do it Can? Always wanted to do this too but couldn't find much on it, or anywhere to get the data.

 

[CanOz]

Here is the advance declime line, cumulative...and the 52 week highs, both compared the SPY...

In Amibroker with Premium Data you subscribe to the indicators, then you chart them using Price (foreign).

I'm not sure if this is exactly what TH did, but if you're looking for divergences then they're there...

 

[kid hustlr]

How do you do it Can? Always wanted to do this too but couldn't find much on it, or anywhere to get the data.

TH used to do it on ninjatrader I think. If you've got data for US equities I'd say its pretty easy to do. From memory there's a formula for 52 week highs on ninja so you'd just need to build your own formula which culminated it on each day. ie on the 20th July xyz stocks are 52 week highs. Wouldn't be that hard I would think.

The other one he used to like was the 10 day average of up stocks - down stocks. Once again if you have the data I'm sure its not that hard to whip a nifty little formula in ninja trader

Here is the advance declime line, cumulative...and the 52 week highs, both compared the SPY...

In Amibroker with Premium Data you subscribe to the indicators, then you chart them using Price (foreign).

I'm not sure if this is exactly what TH did, but if you're looking for divergences then they're there...

Thank's Can, super helpful.

 

[kid hustlr]

52 week high chart looks super sick. cumulative advancers still holding strong though

 

[havaiana]

The Seng looking a little bullish today

 

[MARKETWINNER]

I believe globally stocks with lower valuations will outperform the market. There could be some pressure on S & P 500, NASDQ and Dow in the short run. Still value stocks especially some consumer staples will have demand. Among Emerging and frontier Asian markets both China and Sri-Lankan markets will have some great value opportunities. Even in Bangladesh market there will be some opportunities. Undervalued consumer staples will be the place to watch. We cannot simply ignore large population and number of mouths in Asia in the future. In addition to multi national companies operating in Asia, well managed locally grown companies will maintain their growth. In the currency market US Dollar hit eight month high against Euro. NZ dollar could fall further in the coming weeks.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/4-consumer-staples-for-earnings-beats-earnings-esp-cm373579

4 Consumer Staples for Earnings Beats - Earnings ESP

https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Outlook-for-Sri-Lanka-banking-system-stable--PR_302924

Moody's: Outlook for Sri Lanka banking system stable

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ongest-growth-since-1980-as-unrest-eases.html

Bangladesh Forecasts Strongest Growth Since 1980 as Unrest Eases

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

There may be another opportunity for bargain hunters and value hunters from the current global selloff in stocks. More investors will go behind value investment now. They will prefer undervalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks to overvalued markets, sectors, commodities, currencies and stocks now. USD is an undervalued currency and NZD is number one overvalued currency in the world. Some markets including frontier markets are less correlated to current turmoil in markets and their coming bull markets are still intact as they didn’t have bull market yet. We didn’t see bigger selloff in markets such as Poland, Oman, Kenya, Sri-Lanka, Philippines, Romania, Tanzania, UAE, Jordon, Hungary, Brazil, Mexico, Iceland, Egypt and Bulgaria etc. Most of these markets were up or flat on Friday.

In the meantime oil is heading for the biggest weekly drop in 7 months. There is a sharp drop in soyabean prices as well. Among soft commodities quality tea and coffee will have demand and prices will appreciate accordingly. There were some supports for Gold as well.

http://www.nasdaq.com/article/the-g...rcentage-gains-on-the-final-frontier-cm370552

The Global Guru: Double-Digit Percentage Gains on the 'Final Frontier

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...for-weekly-drop-as-u-s-data-boost-dollar.html

Asian Currencies Complete Weekly Drop as U.S. Data Boost Dollar

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...s-china-hydro-curbs-coal-imports-freight.html

Shipping Rates Drop as China Hydro Power Cuts Coal Need

Have a nice week end!

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

What a Friday for DOW and S & P 500. DOW and S&P 500 are trading above 17,000 and 2000 respectively now.

Among emerging and frontier markets in Asia pacific region, we can see continuous strength in stock markets such Vietnam, Sri-Lanka and India. After some pull backs The Philippine Stock Exchange index added 13.26 points or 0.19 percent to close at 7,146.35, the highest finish for 2014 by 26th August 2014.Curently their index is trading around 7050. In the meantime after recent sell off Pakistan stock market went up strongly on Friday. We are seeing some strength in Chinese stock market as well. In the mean time the main index of the Nairobi stock market is up 15 per cent so far this year. Some of these markets still have legs due to attractive valuations. It is time to avoid extremely overvalued markets and focus on undervalued markets and undervalued assets globally.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/08/28/markets-southeast-asia-stocks-idUKL3N0QY3JQ20140828

SE Asia Stocks -Philippine shares retreat on rate outlook; Thai PTT drops

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please note that I do not endorse or take responsibility for material in the above hyper-linked sites. Please do your own research.

 

[avion]

Marketwinner, how are those emerging markets going, what's your take on Russia sanctions, USD is surging, do you see it continue? I am sensing quite a shift in the markets... Are we going to CRASH!? Let's get this thread going again...

 

[avion]

Soros doubles a bearish bet on the S&P 500, to the tune of $1.3 billion


http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetel...bet-on-the-sp-500-to-the-tune-of-1-3-billion/

 

[avion]

I guess the markets are only pricing in the end of the Fed bond buying. I am just amazed after so much printing the effect on inflation in US was virtually non existent. Is it true the US exports the inflation across the world (due to everything being priced in US$) thereby minimizing the impact on its own soil? Is the rest of the world subsidizing US? Now that BRIC countries have their own international reserve bank and China is agreeing to price oil with Russia in Yuan does that mean those countries are trying to limit US$ as a reserve currency? Is that a good thing? Don't know...

 

[DeepState]

1. I guess the markets are only pricing in the end of the Fed bond buying.

2. I am just amazed after so much printing the effect on inflation in US was virtually non existent.

3. Is it true the US exports the inflation across the world (due to everything being priced in US$) thereby minimizing the impact on its own soil? Is the rest of the world subsidizing US?

4. Now that BRIC countries have their own international reserve bank and China is agreeing to price oil with Russia in Yuan does that mean those countries are trying to limit US$ as a reserve currency?

5. Is that a good thing? Don't know...

1. The US bond curve is being weighed down by increasingly easy monetary conditions in the EZ that are seeing negative yields in a range of countries over two year tenor. This is also the case with Japanese liquidity looking for a home that generates something other than outright negative real returns. There are other reasons that are influential too. Perhaps another post.

The weighing down of the curve is contrary to the actions that would most likely be prevailing if the Fed was tightening as they are expected to do and US domestic conditions are on the trajectory they have currently found themselves on, without external monetary influences.

The end of bond buying by the Fed, in isolation, is more likely a catalyst for re-assessment of the weak outlook for US equities than it is for spurring another rally.


2. It is clearly present in asset inflation which is also harmful to an economy if not well handled. The circumstances of this print were also very different to that for other debt monetization in history that did lead to high inflation on consumption goods. Oils ain't oils. Prints ain't prints.


3. To the extent that tradeables are experiencing high inflation on US soil, inflation can be exported elsewhere. This is a normal activity.

The rest of the world actually subsidizes the US in financial terms due to the centrality of the USD. However, the US has a price to pay for this exorbitant privilege.


4. There is a move on to break the link between oil and USD by trading it in currencies other than USD. This is a key connection to the USD that gave it reserve status post the dissolution of the convertibility to gold under Nixon. However, the specifics of the situation between Russia and China in relation to their long term energy contract are such that the direct impact on the USD is negligible. It just cuts out double FX transitions that hold USD for less than a microsecond, in effect.


5. It would increase US borrowing costs and may reduce the borrowing costs of other nations. There are many other considerations. Nonetheless, the currency hub has moved from Sterling to USD in the last century. The Euro was founded partly to be a balance against USD and Yuan is emerging as a major currency in the future. Nothing terrible has occurred in the FX markets (on a global basis) - yet.

 

[avion]

Thanks RY, your reply is gold as usual...

The end of bond buying by the Fed, in isolation, is more likely a catalyst for re-assessment of the weak outlook for US equities than it is for spurring another rally.

In a nutshell probability of correction is strong, you would agree...? We are just waiting for the next catalyst..

I just find myself in constant struggle with how much all of this seems so darn artificial. Sky high equities without true underlying fundamentals, (despite rhetoric 'US economy is in the recovery mode'), the printing of money, China's ghost cities, etc, etc... Feels as if we are teetering on the wire. Compared to prior 1929 crash which was largely driven by market euphoria ('irrational exuberance' a'la Greenspan) today is driven by the governments and hence i feel it's far more serious. Soup kitchens anyone...?

 

[avion]

Honkers delayed/closed due to:

 

[Trembling Hand]

Thanks RY, your reply is gold as usual...



In a nutshell probability of correction is strong, you would agree...? We are just waiting for the next catalyst..

I just find myself in constant struggle with how much all of this seems so darn artificial. Sky high equities without true underlying fundamentals, (despite rhetoric 'US economy is in the recovery mode'), the printing of money, China's ghost cities, etc, etc... Feels as if we are teetering on the wire. Compared to prior 1929 crash which was largely driven by market euphoria ('irrational exuberance' a'la Greenspan) today is driven by the governments and hence i feel it's far more serious. Soup kitchens anyone...?

Are you not trading short term though?

 

[avion]

Are you not trading short term though?

Welcome back TH!

Yes, i am. Only daytrading, no overnight positions. Still like to keep an eye on macro conditions which are unnerving sometimes to say the least. This big lie out there with the markets does makes me crazy enough to argue with everybody around me. At the same time it almost makes me feel guilty how good i feel by not having to worry about the exposure, and having the good night sleep is worth absolute gold. Love the trading just wish i was better so i could do it full time. Not quite there yet. While i maintain full time job i was able to trade HSI morning session in the past. Now i can't (the boss finally put his foot down..). So only can catch part of arvo session. So trying to track DAX with mixed results on sim so far. Miss the HSI big time.

You been away for a while... Anything worthwhile, done the Tibet, experienced ZEN, achieved higher level of self-awareness, become one with nature, dispensed with earthly needs for possessions...???

...or just had few beers every evening in some resorts with mates and girlfriend :bier: :band: