International markets traders banter

[kid hustlr]

Anyone been looking at the HSI/HHI spread. been doing some f'in funny stuff last few weeks. HHI trending, HSI range bound

spoke to your boy boofis last night quickly. hes working hard do constructive things and building a future. happy with the mrs. happy with life. not even thinking about trading and the screens.

I asked him how that felt.

 

[Trembling Hand]

working hard do constructive things and building a future. happy with the mrs. happy with life. not even thinking about trading and the screens.

Oh that sounds terrible.........

 

[CanOz]

Anyone been looking at the HSI/HHI spread. been doing some f'in funny stuff last few weeks. HHI trending, HSI range bound

Yeah i noticed that one day last week....the spread is more volatile lately. I'd love to post a chart but i'm afraid Ninja might have kittens if i whip the customized spread indicator on IB data

I could plot it once i disconnect for lunch...

 

[CanOz]

Here's the spread, the last three months including the ATR(14) which has clearly increased as the HHI has outperformed the HSI. Why is that anyway... Why would the HSI underperform when its only partially weighted with HHI components? Is that due to a general route of emerging market assets as well as China?

 

[skc]

Here's the spread, the last three months including the ATR(14) which has clearly increased as the HHI has outperformed the HSI. Why is that anyway... Why would the HSI underperform when its only partially weighted with HHI components? Is that due to a general route of emerging market assets as well as China?

Shouldn't you plot the ratio rather than the spread?

HSI trades at around 21000, HHI at ~9000. Spread = 12000, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

Both falls 10%. HSI = 18900, HHI = 8100. Spread = 10800, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

So the spread changes from 12000 to 10800 while both indices simply moved by the same percentage wise... and just because the spread has reduced doesn't mean HSI has underperformed.

 

[CanOz]

Shouldn't you plot the ratio rather than the spread?

HSI trades at around 21000, HHI at ~9000. Spread = 12000, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

Both falls 10%. HSI = 18900, HHI = 8100. Spread = 10800, ratio HSI/HHI = 2.333.

So the spread changes from 12000 to 10800 while both indices simply moved by the same percentage wise... and just because the spread has reduced doesn't mean HSI has underperformed.

I can only plot the price difference. Maybe TH can plot the ratio with his proprietary trading tools, but Ninja is quite limited unless you can code.

 

[skc]

I can only plot the price difference. Maybe TH can plot the ratio with his proprietary trading tools, but Ninja is quite limited unless you can code.

Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.

A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread.

Over the same period, the spread has gone from 13000 to 12300. If you long the spread thinking China should fall more than HK, you'd be trading the wrong direction.

Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.

Nice one. Will be waiting and ready to throw my into the mix.

 

[CanOz]

Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.

A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread.

Over the same period, the spread has gone from 13000 to 12300. If you long the spread thinking China should fall more than HK, you'd be trading the wrong direction.

Anyway... we have the making of a massive black Monday imo. And it'd be time to buy probably looking for a highly close by Friday.

Yeah, i realize that if you're going to trade the spread then you need to figure in the price ration as well as an allowance for volatility. Then you end up trading a quantity of contracts to reflect the best spread. Most of my calendar spreads are 1:1.

Thanks for explanation anyway SKC.

 

[MARKETWINNER]

We are seeing more volatility in all types of market. Even in volatile markets some sectors, commodities, currencies, stocks and markets could outperform others. On Friday Indonesian market was a clear winner in the Asia and Pacific Region. It went up by more than 3%. Argentinean market in South America too had a good day. Markets in India, Pakistan and were steady. Nikkei fell more than 3%. There could be some bull markets in South Asia, South America and East Asia sooner than later due to new development.

We have to wait and see effects of increased OCR (The Official Cash rate) in New Zealand. There could be short term support for NZD. It also could affect export sector negatively if NZD stay high. Despite increase in interest rate still I maintain my bearishness on NZD. Sooner than later other developed markets too will increase their OCR. I believe interest rate policy could affect negatively or positively to the economy depend on the situation at that particular time. There are so many ways to control higher housing prices than making use of interest rate. If interest rates stay very high in the short run we may see many mortgage defaulters. As a result of this scenario we may even see housing crisis in some countries. Because we should not forget about fragility of the housing market globally. In some situation interest rate could become mass of destruction.

In the Agri commodity market both corn and soya bean didn’t have strong support this week except wheat which had good support. Globally we could see more grain harvest in the second half of this year. Among commodity future contracts livestock futures are having less volatility and they are in a clear uptrend. Most of other commodities are having volatility and they are in down trend except sudden surge in few commodities due to short term factors. Despite short term Ukraine crisis Oil prices are weak.

In the meantime Ireland’s 10-year securities went up for a ninth week as the nation auctioned its first bonds since 2010.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.

 

[CanOz]

Don't worry about the plot. Think about the maths and whether it makes sense. It's pretty important when you are trading spread directionally to understand what you are actually trading.

A quick glance shows that HSI has gone from a recent high of 23000 to 21500 (6.5%), while HHI has gone from ~10000 to 9230 (7.7%). So the HHI has indeed underperformed, contrary to the observation you've made based on the spread.

Here's the ratio......

 

[CanOz]

Margin-Debt Records Point to U.S. Stock Gains: Chart of the Day
By David Wilson

March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Record amounts of borrowing to buy U.S. stocks may be a forerunner of higher prices if the past is prologue, according to Bespoke Investment Group LLC.

The CHART OF THE DAY shows how the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index fared after total margin debt at New York Stock Exchange member firms set records for five straight months, according to data compiled by Bespoke and Bloomberg. The period matches the length of the current streak, which started in September.

There were 11 instances between 1963 and 2000 when records occurred five months in a row or more, based on Bespoke’s data. In all but one case, the S&P 500 was higher three months after the fifth record. The exception occurred in the first quarter of 1994, when the index dropped 4.4 percent. The S&P 500 also had gains most of the time after six months and one year, as the chart illustrates.

“We wouldn’t go so far as to say that record margin-debt levels are a buying signal,” the Harrison, New York-based firm wrote yesterday in a report. Even so, history shows they “have not been a very good sell signal either.” About 25 percent of monthly totals since 1980 have been records, the report said.

The track record contrasts with concern expressed by Richard Fisher, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, and others that record borrowing may set the stage for stocks to fall.

Margin debt is among indicators that are worth watching “very carefully so as to ensure that the ghost of ‘irrational exuberance’ does not haunt us again,” Fisher said in a March 5 speech in Mexico City. He was referring to a phrase used by the Fed’s former chairman, Alan Greenspan, in 1996 about the effect of investor sentiment on stock values.

----------

Sincerely,
David Wilson

Chart of the Day, Bloomberg News
Stocks Editor, Bloomberg Radio

Author, Visual Guide to Financial Markets
http://www.wiley.com/buy/1118204239

 

[kid hustlr]

i cannot take a trick at the moment.

was having a really good day then Westpac opened up their mouths and I got run over

long week ahead!

 

[havaiana]

Markets trading kind of flicky this morning. Haven't really moved anywhere but have moved a lot and quickly, if that makes sense.

Not quite sure what to expect today, hopefully something happens cause I need to make up for my crap morning so far.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Markets trading kind of flicky this morning. Haven't really moved anywhere but have moved a lot and quickly, if that makes sense.

Not quite sure what to expect today, hopefully something happens cause I need to make up for my crap morning so far.

Yeah Anyone have an idea what Mr Bot is up to on the Seng today..... F'in all over the place!! Up- Down-Up back down.... think he has a loose capacitor....

 

[kid hustlr]

Bonds are quite coz all the locals are trading the spi roll but the last hour or 2 its been pretty frantic price action a lot of bond buying going on.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Yeah Anyone have an idea what Mr Bot is up to on the Seng today..... F'in all over the place!! Up- Down-Up back down.... think he has a loose capacitor....

Looks like smash down day..... lots of vol.... if she sticks it will be a stinker..... hang on.

:shoot:

 

[CanOz]

Looks like smash down day..... lots of vol.... if she sticks it will be a stinker..... hang on.

:shoot:

lol....then straight back the other way 100 points

 

[Trembling Hand]

lol....then straight back the other way 100 points

Funny old day... good volume but we seem to be going nowhere after all that.


I'm trying not to be a scalper but I've had 10 trades and half of them have been 3 tick winners ( because they were scratched!)

Though cannot complain only 1 loser.

 

[CanOz]

Funny old day... good volume but we seem to be going nowhere after all that.


I'm trying not to be a scalper but I've had 10 trades and half of them have been 3 tick winners ( because they were scratched!)

Though cannot complain only 1 loser.

You ever trade the HHI? I've been having some success on it...until the last 45 minutes....

Its a little thicker than the Seng, sometimes the fills seem easier. Its almost like the DAX