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International markets traders banter

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I do enjoy the T/H internals post. But wheres the 52 week highs/lows?

perhaps mkt takes a breather before kicking higher?
 
kid hustlr said:
I do enjoy the T/H internals post. But wheres the 52 week highs/lows?

perhaps mkt takes a breather before kicking higher?
Click to expand...

Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..... To busy smashing my head against the and throwing the c: because I sold out a full lot hun-gie odd points ago......

Again!
 
Trembling Hand said:
Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..... To busy smashing my head against the and throwing the c: because I sold out a full lot hun-gie odd points ago......

Again!
Click to expand...

if you're anything like me you'll think about it all night and not sleep.
 
Trembling Hand said:
Yeah was a bit rushed. Named it all wrong. Will update it tomorrow..
Click to expand...

As promised. The 52 week highs (yellow line) and the 20 day avg (blue line) against the S&P500.


I'm not too worried about the lower 52 week highs as its something of a lagger on the swings but the breadth (last chart posted) is showing a hot market. Certainly not one with underling weakness. Nowhere near the type of market we had in 2007-8 like this,


from some smart guy and "It is all over" in Dec 07.



Bears ya got anything for us?
 
Trembling Hand said:
As promised. The 52 week highs (yellow line) and the 20 day avg (blue line) against the S&P500.

Bears ya got anything for us?
Click to expand...

The US is not where the problem is. It's China that's quite wobbly. And really the ASX is simply torn between the two.



P.S. Something is happening soon... Yuan largest drop against $US in 7 years...
 
Nick got me inspired to play with some trend filters recently and I've always used the ES/NQ spread as a heads up for a turn in the market. Here's the spread with a trend filter on it, used to paint the bars of the ES, with an ES coral filter on it as well (the line).

Still the coral filter works earlier than the NQ....its working on the slop of the average alone.

Still green!

I might try one with the FTSE as well, the financials are supposed to lead.
 

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Here is the ES:Z spread, in this case there are many instances where the spread indicates a change in trend before the ES filter.
 

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Here is the ES and the FTSE, with a MACD of the spread. Still no signal to reverse the current trend in the spread but it looks immanent, who will win this one? The coral filter or the MACD?
 

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More interesting trend filters....the ES:6A and the ES:6J spreads....almost identical.
 

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Intelligent market players could have opportunities in all types of markets provided they do home work. Global market behaviour in February was mixed. We saw volatility; sell off, some of the biggest one day drops and some of the biggest one day ups. Even some markets had all time high. Markets go up and down in stages. Some markets are closer to the top and some markets are about to begin their bull. When compare with developed and emerging markets frontier market performed poorly in February. Of course they had some volatility. Month of March could be different ball game.

If I am correct Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank may change its strategy for reducing asset purchases if they see weakness in the economy. She has very sensible and responsible approach to the global economy and markets. So far S&P 500 up 175 percent from a 12-year low. Not bad. Emerging market stocks advanced 3.2 percent in February, the first monthly gain since October. As I said before we should not ignore any market. Friday was a very good day for Asian pacific markets. We saw strong rally in developed, emerging and frontier markets there. Global stocks, bonds and commodities rose together in February for the first time in seven months. Asian stocks completed the first monthly advance since October. Sofar New Zealand market is doing well.

In the commodity market we can see some surge in some commodity prices due to short term factors. In the meantime the euro gained against 14 of its 16 main peers. NZD still has its short term strength due to short term factors. Sooner than later it could become one of the bear currencies in the world.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 
kid hustlr said:
You looking for the gap(s) close here TH or does this Ukraine stuff have some weight to it?
Click to expand...

Wondering the same thing, I don't reckon the weekend developments were priced in much, but don't think anyone expects all out war still. I'm thinking maybe will end a bit like the Georgia stuff which didn't have too much of an effect on the markets.
 
kid hustlr said:
You looking for the gap(s) close here TH or does this Ukraine stuff have some weight to it?
Click to expand...

That would seem like the play but which time zone is it going to kick in. Probably not enough short yet to squeeze back to flat yet... Come Euro or US open that may be the trigger though.
 
Trembling Hand said:
That would seem like the play but which time zone is it going to kick in. Probably not enough short yet to squeeze back to flat yet... Come Euro or US open that may be the trigger though.
Click to expand...

ta mate

SFE bonds are still bid and the 10 year treasuries still quite bid at this stage, following that theme Nikkei and mini v v heavy at this stage. it will turn at some stage as you said
 
Current situation could create another great opportunity. Global stocks fall yesterday. In the meantime Chinese stock market was a clear winner yesterday together with commodity market. In Asian pacific region stocks Markets such New Zealand, Pakistan and Thailand were resilient. Some frontier markets too were resilient globally. I believe some frontier markets could have some limelight in the near future due to new development.

Both Ukraine and Russian markets went down very badly. Ukraine crisis has taken seriously at least for the short run. I don’t think this will develop like crisis in Middle East. These are short term events. If war continues for the next five years to ten years still there could be great demand for some products including selected commodities.

We are seeing some surge in commodity prices due to short term factors. Even if we see some settlement to Ukrainian crisis still there could be opportunities in some commodities globally. We may see shortage or lower inventory in some commodities towards end of this year. As I said before we should not ignore any market and even some commodities.

In the currency market the Ruble went down more than 1 percent against the dollar. US dollar got some life again.

My ideas are not a recommendation to either buy or sell any security, commodity or currency. Please do your own research prior to making any investment decisions.
 

Looks to me like it's not really in anyone's interest to take any serious stance against Russia with this. I reckon it goes like one of these 2 scenarios:

1. Russia enters into talks with whomever and leaves or makes some type of agreement to officially leave but keep navy base there and unofficially remain in control of Crimea
2. Russia takes Crimea by force and aside from some posturing and appearing to do something through half hearted sanctions and halting joint military exercises etc (just enough posturing so as not to make Russia cut off EU of oil, energy etc), no one really does anything about it.

Either way don't see a huge impact on the markets.
 
Yeah, i sort of agree/hope it goes like No.1

To be honest, the media is playing this typical pro US. They have all but failed to mention the fact that Russia's only warm water navel base is in Crimea. I really can't blame Putin for wanting to exert some control over that area, as the only other choice is to lose the base, and the assets. In reality what he's done is likely a more peacful solution that what could happen if he didn't do it and the base was taken at some stage by a Pro Nato UKR government. Now that would have been sour. I just hope no one gets hurt in a ll of this. Putin has taken a big risk here, his economy will suffer for this and he's not stupid.
 

Totally agree. I'm not supporting Putin's actions or anything but few of the media articles comparing him to Hitler mention the fact that Crimea is actually 60% ethnic Russian and they see it as their duty to protect their people.
 
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