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International markets traders banter

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I used to refer to finviz a lot, but, the data is not totally kosher for say pre NFP plays and its summation daily not who's mounted the pre-cash.....be clear your context when looking at the data
 
i think people just like using the word bot in a post and have little idea the value it poses when/where......all this amounts to jibba jabba for the sake of it if you have no idea how trade the set-ups.....there are extremely competent traders who see algo activity but it doesnt change the trade profile or order flow the way most speculate might happen......its still the same auction......
 

Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????

AAPL had a good day though, must short again?
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????
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I didn't think the housing data stuff was the mover. Rather the Spanish bill sale. Europe was well on its was before the housing data.
 
Trembling Hand said:
I didn't think the housing data stuff was the mover. Rather the Spanish bill sale. Europe was well on its was before the housing data.
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Right after I posted my comment about the HSI the dax went up up and away.....filled the gap and more.

So someone is still buying Spain's debt? The IMF got a few more blood donors too I heard.

CanOz
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Don't have to be all that competent.......if you can tell me what drove the Dow up 200pts on average data then????

AAPL had a good day though, must short again?
Click to expand...

if you think the market (US or otherwise) needs to have good/bad data to move then you have much education to come or you're receiving it and not recognising the education within a seemingly "baseless" set of moves.....why does the market move up in a less than historic mean volume and on less than steller news, mostly because the news is already written into the price and options pit activity.....follow the options outcry and bonds and youre more likely to find the data you want......better still watch the ladder rather than counting waves or looking for shapes.....understanding basic supply demand of an auction, where positional players will take % bargain trades is likely to help much more than popular banter about algo's and bots.......think about the time of day when machinery is most effective and/or most effected, that is, if youre trading inside, otherwise if youre a daily pos player forget the debate completely

what's this weeks drug du jour? spanish fly .......majic lulz !
 
:cuckoo: ...... President Obama speaking on Oil ........

called for increasing penalties on oil speculators ........ as part of a plan to crack down on an "irresponsible few" who he says rig oil markets

said Congress should boost enforcement staff at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission ...... and increase penalties for market manipulation to $10 million from $1 million

He is also asking Congress to give the CFTC authority to raise margin requirements on traders who buy and sell oil futures.


At first I thought he's finally lost it, then I realised ........ Election Year
 

I have a good idea what the story is, have for about 10 years now, but how does 'the market' quantify 200 pts on such data, when if even just a cursury glance & primary school maths shows that the data (driving the market up) is flawed and or the fundamentals haven't changed if not gotten worse if anything?

There is nothing good about the Spain story, even if they have 1 bond auction that was at the margin 'better than expected' - their financial system is deteriorating by the day but 'the markets' are no longer price discovery mechs but rather daily/minutely/secondly algo news driven.

Look at the US retail sales figures - all the market want's to care about is the headline figures, even though it's basically a guestimate?? Same with the employment guestimate numbers - they will have to revise down their figures within months? Industrial production is flat etc etc

The best one is however the earnings guestimates - all low balled so they come in better than expected (although a lot are not even getting that mark) but still down on PCP's ie US earnings have tanked - this is as good as it get's, without more QE of course?

That's not to say I'm not part of it - I've never made so much money. I am pretty much am saying though that the market is in fact wrong and the further we go down the track the worse it's going to get - I am pricing that in every time I short at the tops. The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.......the fundamentals are saying as much?

PS Spanish bond yields going back up again - let's see how the real auctions go??
 
Uncle Festivus said:
The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.......the fundamentals are saying as much?
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Long or short eventually you will make a profit! I love sideways markets! There so self perpetuating.:aus:
The stop is dead in the lost decade ahead.
 
Uncle Festivus said:
Yes, 600's have been good hunting so far. Down again after hours.

View attachment 46764
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Keep "hunting" then ...I dunno which chart you're looking at.

The funny thing is it's doesn't really matter what your (short) entry point is because eventually you will make a profit.
Click to expand...

So if AAPL breaks the current seven day high, will you still be spouting this?

I mean, I'm not running longs, but I really am not seeing your confidence to short "no matter what price you're a winner" either. If you put a gun to my head and made me trade the AAPL daily, I'd be far more game for running a low risk long here.
 

Low risk long? Well that's the game isn't it? It just happens to meet my (shorting) methodology - wait for the woody blow off after the long term run-up (my trading zone) then look for intra-day advances which exceed a % value. Works for me....
 
Uncle Festivus said:
I have a good idea what the story is, have for about 10 years now, but how does 'the market' quantify 200 pts on such data,
Click to expand...

those two sentences are odds with each other......if after 10 years your understanding of positional players and those who effect/affect order flow is rarely based on that days "data"......then again, we may both have diff ideas on what the word data actually is.....seems to me you're referring to news/fundamental theories of price discovery ......look deeper, look at function of the auction rather than the usual chat site goss of news......if youre trading from a chart actually back test the news as a value or pressure on price.....then ask at what price the new value kicks in, or, most likely where was the news written into the days set-up......i mean, when news is bad price climbs, when news is good price climbs in different congestions, diff size for diff time periods......a 10 year bond auction has some bearing on some players but i doubt youre ever going to quantify the extent, what you can do is to look and interpret the price data and see how the previous session(s) set-up uses the up-coming news.....that is, what is the set-up value not what is the mythical bond mathematic or whatever the news du jour is as its not like no-one knew the news was coming.....i think the whole news debate is a furffy and asking what is the theory behind the price moving whatever points is also a furffy, youre simply not going to trade the theory, youre always trading the current idea of price and value levels based on the market flow at the time, in the present, so, yes, you need to read the recent history that sets up the plays and project a plan forward, but, rather than guessing what a news function might provide, ask where are the players positioned from data that is raw(er) such as options traded or expiring, adv/dec, time of year, who'd best gain from the timing of the news.......

10 years of trading doesnt mean squat really if youre still looking at the same ole and coming up with the same ole and

to give you an idea of what i mean, take players whom only trade off the dom, they know the news is comming and theyre watching size come into the ladder, the news itself carries very little value, what theyre looking for is size and disguise .....that's it....theyre watching the 10 year note and some might even be watching a prop set of indicia for options activity but the further they look away from price itself the further they drift from discovery, so, if theyre drifting even when using raw data (intepretation aside) then how far is a trader by trying to analyse news ? What type of investment might be effected by news is a good question....the diff between deciding on an investment basis and a trading basis is like an F1 and a double decker bus
 
Joules,
All taken on board, but the basic premise of mine was that the 'thing' that changes the pricing dynamics is incorrect ie the data/news is taken at face (headline) value not what it actually might be? Then there are the revisions/corrections a month or so later but by then the market has well & truly moved on.

So take the Spanish auctions tonight - the market is already pricing in a successful auction, the critical word being successful, even if the yield is higher than 4.85% (10 year) and the country itself is in recession etc etc all just to kick the tin down the road a bit longer?

What do you see happening?

All here

The Spanish Treasury is looking to sell €1.5 billion ($2 billion) with a maximum target of €2.5 billion ($3.3 billion) in bonds maturing 2014 and 2022.


 
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