International Index Trading

[MRC & Co]

From first link, the punch line and core theme of the article: "Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist".

Basically, this is the same as Edwoods post right? If mutual fund cash reserves are low, 'insiders' are short? Markets go down. Same difference?

But a good and interesting post Sinner, thx. Funny how it gets no responses, most again prefer the 'breakouts' thread from pure laziness when they should be reading things like your post!

 

[Edwood]

From first link, the punch line and core theme of the article: "Please note that Insider Selling Hits New 2010 High in March. So while mutual funds are loading up, insiders who likely know much more about business fundamentals are selling hand over fist".

yeah I think you're right MRC, in my mind its about asset allocation and highlights who is fully invested at the top - not something to trade from on its own, but another pointer to a major correction in the near future.

 

[Edwood]

closed half Russell short and long FTSE now, looking like we could bounce here

kicking off in Greece
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/8661385.stm

 

[Edwood]

out of Russell shorts & FTSE long too now. That was fun

Now long EUR-USD

good evening

 

[MRC & Co]

out of Russell shorts & FTSE long too now. That was fun

Now long EUR-USD

good evening

Ouch, Greece riots are going to cause further EUR/USD weakness.......why long?

ECB meets tonight, all looks bad. They jump back into QE mode and EUR gets hit, they don't and contagion spreads......

This is one falling knife I won't be trying to catch.

Equities may at least get bid from decent growth outlooks, but EUR is a dead man walking.

 

[Edwood]

Ouch, Greece riots are going to cause further EUR/USD weakness.......why long?

ECB meets tonight, all looks bad. They jump back into QE mode and EUR gets hit, they don't and contagion spreads......

This is one falling knife I won't be trying to catch.

yes you're right, its looking very dodgy. was only looking for a short-term bounce from oversold and got stopped out so no biggie

 

[Edwood]

Russell approaching lower parallel

 

[wayneL]

Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!

Action stations!

 

[leedskalnin]

Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!

Action stations!

Plunge protection team must have got stuck in the queue at dunkin doughnut and had their eye off the ball.

 

[Edwood]

that move was definitely dodgy hey? 300-400 drop maybe & stay down, but nearly 1000 on Dow & recover half of it smacks that someone pushed it down to get a fill

I blame it on them options boys Wayne

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Holy Snapping @ssholes Margaret!

Action stations!

Looks like Hawkes Bay is an action station Wayne? Got some room for guests - I will bring my own food, women and ammo........

 

[wayneL]

Looks like Hawkes Bay is an action station Wayne? Got some room for guests - I will bring my own food, women and ammo........

Cool. No need to bring booze though, there are hundreds of wineries and even a brewery within raiding distance.

 

[MRC & Co]

WSJ reports, a Citi algo trader sold 16bil worth of e-mini S&Ps, rather than 16mil which set off more black boxes!

LOL.

Though, do note that it closed pretty much where price was prior to that mistake, so makes a 'capitulation' low look less likely IMO.......

 

[sinner]

WSJ reports, a Citi algo trader sold 16bil worth of e-mini S&Ps, rather than 16mil which set off more black boxes!

LOL.

Though, do note that it closed pretty much where price was prior to that mistake, so makes a 'capitulation' low look less likely IMO.......

What a rubbish excuse for this decline.

As I said on April 26th 3 hours before the EUREX open:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3669657&postcount=5990

I have the DAX in a wave 5 of 5 on the weekly - expecting an A-B-C down move there base on some sort of fundamental trigger. I think complacency is high and leverage levels are back to pre 2008. With equities mostly around their 62% retrace of the '08 decline it seems like a perfect place for the next wave down to occur - at least in equities.

...cash market shorts from 6030 weekly low have been fun so far with last night culminating in an overall 8% downmove in the index.

But a good and interesting post Sinner, thx. Funny how it gets no responses, most again prefer the 'breakouts' thread from pure laziness when they should be reading things like your post

Ergh. Still waiting for Trembling Hand to respond to my post in the tick vol on FX thread. So far every single time I've attempted to contribute something tradewise to this forum I've been convinced pretty quickly to just keep my mouth shut.

 

[Edwood]

nice work sinner

See some of the US trades may be unwound. Problem is if they try to unwind the trades that caused this where do you stop given the ripple effect across all markets? In terms of maintaining a 'fair & orderly market' its probably the right thing to do - but any a firm that allows dealers to enter a billion units via short cut keys deserves everything it gets

 

[Edwood]

was about to reply to your post sinner but figure you've deleted it?

there's no doubt markets have been going down anyway - but a move like that - to drop 700pts then recover 600 in 20 mins - is either error or manipulation

 

[sinner]

there's no doubt markets have been going down anyway - but a move like that - to drop 700pts then recover 600 in 20 mins - is either error or manipulation

Disagree.

To drop 700pts and then recover 600 in 20 mins is a sign of extremely poor liquidity. Get used to it - we will be seeing plenty of this high volatility low volume type business over the coming while as banks and market makers withdraw their bids. There is a full blown funding crisis happening right now in Eurozone - apart from the sovereign debt crisis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-market-almost-died-courtesy-high-frequency-trading

 

[Edwood]

Disagree.

To drop 700pts and then recover 600 in 20 mins is a sign of extremely poor liquidity. Get used to it - we will be seeing plenty of this high volatility low volume type business over the coming while as banks and market makers withdraw their bids. There is a full blown funding crisis happening right now in Eurozone - apart from the sovereign debt crisis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/day-market-almost-died-courtesy-high-frequency-trading

good article - but as they say the order 'error' was the catalyst that set the train in motion

 

[sinner]

good article - but as they say the order 'error' was the catalyst that set the train in motion

Maybe I should have been more specific in my linking I was referring directly to the letter from Dennis Dick at the bottom of the article - in the first paragraph he provides an example from Jan 7 of this year whereby Rambus fell by 30% and immediately rallied even before announcement that trades would be busted. This too was blamed on a "fat finger".

Here is a snippet from Dennis Dicks preminitionary article in January 2010:

That is why the sudden plunge to $16 happened. If you check the chart, you will not see this, because Nasdaq busted all trades under $22. But don’t kid yourself, these trades happened, and we should be very alarmed, because it will happen again, and it may happen to the entire stock market

Believe what you want, I am sick of trying to convince people on this forum of things - just tried to share some info you obviously didn't have.

 

[sinner]

Lots and lots of woe on forexfactory today - countless retail traders wiped out. I myself managed to get a short in on USDJPY (avoiding my mainstay GBPUSD until elections finished) during EUREX hours at 93.53 so pretty happy with myself.

I repost under myself to provide more evidence that last nights shenanigans were liquidity related: here is an email sent to FXCM clients (I am not one) last night because many were locked out of their accounts during the craziness.

Over the recent months, there has been a strong correlation between the US stock markets and the Japanese Yen. When the Dow plunged today, so did the Japanese Yen crosses. We saw JPY crosses drop between 350 (USD/JPY) and 1248 (GBP/JPY) points. We saw comparable volatility in non Yen crosses as well.

As a result most major banks that provide liquidity to the currency market turned off their FX price feeds for up to 30 minutes. This led to rejected and hanging orders for many FX traders. During this time FXCM immediately routed orders to any remaining banks, however FXCM clients were still subject to the thin liquidity and poor execution being provided by the market.

"any remaining banks" ...yea, right!