International Index Trading
- Thread starter wayneL
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I'm with you.
I've got quite a few reasons longer-term, which now coincide with short-term opinions about why she's gonna blow.
The only problem is the US equity market looks the strongest and is held as the ultimate determinate of 'risk sentiment'.
So there is always the possibility as we are seeing now, of other 'risk assets' coming off, without as bigger moves in the traditional plays....
I've got quite a few reasons longer-term, which now coincide with short-term opinions about why she's gonna blow.
The only problem is the US equity market looks the strongest and is held as the ultimate determinate of 'risk sentiment'.
So there is always the possibility as we are seeing now, of other 'risk assets' coming off, without as bigger moves in the traditional plays....
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That's what I got.
Huge spike in CDS spreads, even the bund has moved higher than the UST.
Last time we got a spike like this in spreads, it frontran the subsequent piling into 'safe havens'.
Financial ETFs are down, financials have been strongly correlated with the 'risk trade'.
Many 'risk trades' are now over-crowded, huge net speculative long positions and vice-versa in 'safe haven trades'.
Monetary restriction and targeted fiscal expansion in China is now taking place, great for longer-term real growth, bad for short-term financial markets IMO.
Gold even rallied last night, as opposed to Friday when it also came off.
Even got financial regulation moving closer and closer to the forefront which will effectively lower financials prices and the expansion of credit. Many CBs looking at moping up liquidity to that end also.
Above market earnings reports are prooving less and less of a bid for equities (factoring in of top-line growth may already be over).
Quite a few other factors, but CBF going through them all. Points to one direction for mine......
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Yeh, definately doesn't add to the bullish scenario, but any data on flows? I.e if more 'Mums and Dads' are placing $ with mutual funds and increasing reserves/liquidity?
This looks like the LH to me.
no but I'll keep an eye out for data.
Potentially LH but am holding off on getting positioned yet, could be one more down, then final up move - then stick a fork in it
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no but I'll keep an eye out for data.
Potentially LH but am holding off on getting positioned yet, could be one more down, then final up move - then stick a fork in it
There is talk of more charges this time from the Fed against GS which has just surfaced and the financial regulations bill is debated tonight in the Senate. All could be the inflection point.
My only concern is the fact the IMF/EUR make a decision on Sunday, which I see as 90% chance of an agreed deal. Could spark up the risk rally again at least S-T.
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Yeh mate, got that with leverage and OPM (Other Peoples Money)!
Like I rode a lot of that EUR/USD, pyramiding on any spikes higher, I may just do the same on the equity market (though not ride as long, still think it's good quite a bit more downside yet).......
Hope you got some too mate!
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Polls still look like a hung parliament.....
Think there will be rate rises in OZ today.
On another note, where did you get that data on mutual fund investment levels?
Mish reckons MF investment levels is a terrible measurement of what its proponents argue it measures and I agree.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/03/mutual-fund-cash-depletion-highest.html
Read here for a better understanding of what it does/does not measure.
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc060710.htm
To get a decent gauge of market participation in the futures, a good understanding of Open Interest and Volume are required imho. Every night before London opens I amend a spreadsheet of CME data points like options puts:calls (and avgs thereof), futures OI plotted against the close price (and avgs thereof), to track the various instruments I trade. Even though the data is a day "late" you will see the value in it very quickly. When it comes to stock indices these indicators can be useful but usually superceded by market breadth indicators like the Advance/Decline line (for an example checkout ticker NYAD on the NYSE) which provide a better picture.
But the main point is, don't use MM funds as a method to quantify market participation. Use market participation data as a method to quantify market participation. Between stockcharts.com, indexindicators.com and cmegroup.com you should have more than enough of this info across most markets.
EDIT: Obviously MRC and similar don't need to be told many of these things, just thought it was a good spot for those that do.
Cheers for the links sinner, will read them after dinner.
Here's the chart from the article MRC. (PM me an email address if you want the full article)
The cash-to-assets ratio sank to 4% in March 2000, almost equaling a 27-year-old record. Investors were mightily punished. In June and July 2007, the cash-to-assets ratio contracted to 3.5%. Investors were punished. And now, as of the end of February 2010, the cash-to assets ratio has once again dipped to 3.5%. Will the dénouement be the same? Consider that the total amount of cash in fund coffers was $229 billion and $224 billion in June and July 2007. Cash is now significantly less, $171 billion. The mutual fund cash-to-assets ratio is trading at an all-time record low.
Here's the chart from the article MRC. (PM me an email address if you want the full article)
The cash-to-assets ratio sank to 4% in March 2000, almost equaling a 27-year-old record. Investors were mightily punished. In June and July 2007, the cash-to-assets ratio contracted to 3.5%. Investors were punished. And now, as of the end of February 2010, the cash-to assets ratio has once again dipped to 3.5%. Will the dénouement be the same? Consider that the total amount of cash in fund coffers was $229 billion and $224 billion in June and July 2007. Cash is now significantly less, $171 billion. The mutual fund cash-to-assets ratio is trading at an all-time record low.
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apologies sinner but I can be a bit thick at times - for market participation wouldn't you be better to look to total assets in mutual funds, not cash-to-asset ratio, which shows asset allocation (i.e., risk perception).
Can you explain why the cash-to-asset ratio rose during the 2008 decline? cheers
Can you explain why the cash-to-asset ratio rose during the 2008 decline? cheers
