International Index Trading

[Edwood]

what is going on with the Dax?? nearly up 300pts now in the last 3 days! amazing strength

 

[reece55]

No worries Reece.

I am with you on that Reece, flat last night I also thik that it will have to make it's mind up. I am still 50/50 as well, I have a thightish stop on my long, currently not in profit but I will give it a day or so.

I have also heard some talk about MBL's internal spending habits not a great sign.

Trade IT - still in that long Dow Jones, or did you close last night after a moderate 40 point rise???????

There was nice movement on all markets last night -even the NASDAQ (which has been lagging) is now looking very nice...

Cheers

 

[>Apocalypto<]

I am long, also now thinking about going long on the XJO very close now to confrimation.

opened 2 gold minis last night mayor strengh as well, AUD is also breaking out of its bearish channel.

things looking good.

I want to open another dow after a minor retracement.

this all seems strange but you can't ignore the charts!

 

[Edwood]

Dax

 

[professor_frink]

nice selloff on the H-shares this morning. It's off over 1.5% after being up nearly 1% not long after the open

 

[Magdoran]

This is certainly a turbulent time in the markets, but I still think the US market is bullish despite the marked bearish price action on the Shanghai composite.

US T Bonds look like they should try to rally from the current low, and if so, may temporarily halt the resultant increases in interest rates in the T bond market.

The S&P 500 and the Dow both look like they should have a brief and minor pause or pull back (suspect 1-4 trading days), and then I’d expect some kind of bullish rally.

This is where it gets difficult for me because I see two totally different cycles running through the US market in the daily charts, and both seem valid; hence this presents a challenge in terms of interpretation.

NASDAQ - I’m still working on this, and this is a fresh interpretation of this index, but I can see 15 July as a key date, with 09 June (major) and 27 June (minor) as time increments (please see the attached chart), moving potentially to 2819.45, but could extend to 20 August.

S&P 500 - Current target is 07 July as a key date, 1603.57. Please see attached chart.

The DOW chart attached is using a time cycle forecast by Bill Mclaren, and this is my interpretation based on his work for the price, hence I’m watching how the DOW trades into the 12 July. It is possible for different cycles to be running concurrently hence this can add complexity to interpreting the potential effects of different cycles.

Overall, while these cycles are evident, I remain bullish on the US market. (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).


Regards,


Magdoran

 

[Magdoran]

DAX

The DAX has reached a key date and found resistance (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).

I don’t know if this price action is some kind of a termination or not, or if the DAX will continue bullishly from here. Judging by the pattern, the trend has been up for a long time, and the pattern while exhaustive, perhaps blowing off, may well continue up after a consolidation or pull back into 06 September or even further into 12 October. A lot depends on the way the current price action plays out.

Assuming the cycle I have been using is correct, this is a point where I would expect at least a halt in the bullish drive here, maybe into the June 08 increment to find support, but may pull back further. The weaker the counter trend at this point, the stronger the DAX is rallying. If nothing much happens here, this will say a lot about the strength of the bullish trend.



Regards,


Magdoran

 

[professor_frink]

Thanks for your analysis Mag

Interesting stuff as per usual

 

[CanOz]

The German mid50, taking a pissling....

Wall St. on S1 tonite....just dropped below as i type!

Seems like everything is starting to correct...or adjust...

Cheers,

 

[kgee]

yep watching the dow tonight...down 80 already

 

[Magdoran]

This is certainly a turbulent time in the markets, but I still think the US market is bullish despite the marked bearish price action on the Shanghai composite.

US T Bonds look like they should try to rally from the current low, and if so, may temporarily halt the resultant increases in interest rates in the T bond market.

The S&P 500 and the Dow both look like they should have a brief and minor pause or pull back (suspect 1-4 trading days), and then I’d expect some kind of bullish rally.

This is where it gets difficult for me because I see two totally different cycles running through the US market in the daily charts, and both seem valid; hence this presents a challenge in terms of interpretation.

NASDAQ - I’m still working on this, and this is a fresh interpretation of this index, but I can see 15 July as a key date, with 09 June (major) and 27 June (minor) as time increments (please see the attached chart), moving potentially to 2819.45, but could extend to 20 August.

S&P 500 - Current target is 07 July as a key date, 1603.57. Please see attached chart.

The DOW chart attached is using a time cycle forecast by Bill Mclaren, and this is my interpretation based on his work for the price, hence I’m watching how the DOW trades into the 12 July. It is possible for different cycles to be running concurrently hence this can add complexity to interpreting the potential effects of different cycles.

Overall, while these cycles are evident, I remain bullish on the US market. (Please see the commentary on the “Trading the SPI - Gann techniques” thread for more information).


Regards,


Magdoran

Woops, this was meant to read 12 JUNE, not July.

 

[Edwood]

'good' place for the Dax to bounce

 

[Edwood]

bugger - I see Europe & US got a spanking - not a great week to catch a cold off the kids, been knackered & not be able to stay up for the late sessions

oh well should be plenty of volatility have taken a small long on the Dax, stop at evens

 

[wayneL]

At least things are getting interesting again

 

[Edwood]

(early) morning Wayne yes its nice to see there is more than 1 direction in the market!

gutted about missing these moves, but not bovvered there should be plenty more to come! anything specific you're focusing on?

 

[wayneL]

(early) morning Wayne yes its nice to see there is more than 1 direction in the market!

gutted about missing these moves, but not bovvered there should be plenty more to come! anything specific you're focusing on?

The usual suspects for indecies (Naz, SP500) but to be honest I was waiting for the cavalry to turn up so missed a huge chunk of this.

Could the cavalry finally be out of bullets? .... interesting moves in the bond markets eh?

 

[theasxgorilla]

The usual suspects for indecies (Naz, SP500) but to be honest I was waiting for the cavalry to turn up so missed a huge chunk of this.

Could the cavalry finally be out of bullets? .... interesting moves in the bond markets eh?

Hmmm...looks serious on the chart.

 

[wayneL]

Hmmm...looks serious on the chart.

Certainly does.

The US retail muppet is expecting interest rate cuts soon, bond traders think otherwise.

As the ONLY fundamental under consideration at the moment in the US (This whole rally was fed pause inspired ) is interest rates , a raise in official rates would seriously take out the froth... presumably.

 

[Edwood]

was sent this o/night Wayne - appears we could be going a lot higher yet, also have a weekly view which suggests we have been base building...

 

[wayneL]

was sent this o/night Wayne - appears we could be going a lot higher yet, also have a weekly view which suggests we have been base building...

Could Ben Bareknuckles have perpetuated a fraud on the US and world public by "intimating" rates could go lower, thereby pumping the SM? I mean blind freakin' Freddy knew that the inflation figures were a manipulated fabrication and that inflation was slowly getting a grip on the economy... or dare we mention "stagflation" again?