Inflation

[mullokintyre]

Container rates for shipping have stabilised and are back at pre covid levels.

There has been a bit of an uptick in recent tmes, which may well be attributed to the severe drought in central Americas that has severely restricted what and how many can get through the panama canal.
From BBC News

Seeing as this restriction will continue to worsen for at leat twelve to 18 months, we can expect that container rates will increase, especially if the cape size ships start to bypass the canal and head for the Cape Horn route.
These costs ill eventually feed into costs for most countries.
Mick
Edited to add a chart for the NDI which has gone down for the past 11 months in a row. Wonder if it will start to go up?

 

[over9k]

Container rates for shipping have stabilised and are back at pre covid levels.
View attachment 165141
There has been a bit of an uptick in recent tmes, which may well be attributed to the severe drought in central Americas that has severely restricted what and how many can get through the panama canal.
From BBC News
View attachment 165144
Seeing as this restriction will continue to worsen for at leat twelve to 18 months, we can expect that container rates will increase, especially if the cape size ships start to bypass the canal and head for the Cape Horn route.
These costs ill eventually feed into costs for most countries.
Mick
Edited to add a chart for the NDI which has gone down for the past 11 months in a row. Wonder if it will start to go up?
View attachment 165146

Mirrors the demand for goods/physical things perfectly.

 

[over9k]

Jobs numbers come in at 150k vs 180k estimated. Yields dump, growth plays all run, swaps price the first cut june next year rather than july.

Market getting ahead of itself? You decide.

 

[greggles]

Jobs numbers come in at 150k vs 180k estimated. Yields dump, growth plays all run, swaps price the first cut june next year rather than july.

Market getting ahead of itself? You decide.

Precious metals flying. More cracks are appearing in the US economy and investors are starting to see the writing on the wall. They can't turn to Europe or China, so where is there left to turn? Cash and safe havens is where capital is starting to flee to.

 

[over9k]

Precious metals flying. More cracks are appearing in the US economy and investors are starting to see the writing on the wall. They can't turn to Europe or China, so where is there left to turn? Cash and safe havens is where capital is starting to flee to.

Any port in a storm

 

[sptrawler]

Precious metals flying. More cracks are appearing in the US economy and investors are starting to see the writing on the wall. They can't turn to Europe or China, so where is there left to turn? Cash and safe havens is where capital is starting to flee to.

Unless this results in a new teir 1 reserve currency, I can't see it settling down between the U.S and China and the world order and the chaos will increase.
China manufactures the worlds appliances, the U.S regulates how much money people pay for them, by controlling the value of their currency.
Somethings got to give.
Just my two cents worth.

 

[greggles]

Any port in a storm

I can't see any compelling case for economic growth in any of the best known markets. High interest rates are strangling any prospect of growth and more hikes are on the cards. The public and private debt burden is increasing and real estate markets are teetering on the edge.

The only place I see potential right now is India, which will eventually become the new China because it has cheap labour but not the death spiral demographics that China does. But that scenario will take decades to play out.

Short term, it all looks bad to me.

 

[over9k]

I can't see any compelling case for economic growth in any of the best known markets. High interest rates are strangling any prospect of growth and more hikes are on the cards. The public and private debt burden is increasing and real estate markets are teetering on the edge.

The only place I see potential right now is India, which will eventually become the new China because it has cheap labour but not the death spiral demographics that China does. But that scenario will take decades to play out.

Short term, it all looks bad to me.

Right, which is why money will go to the least bad place. People will overpay for something even if they take a hit on it because they still saved more of their capital taking the 5% hit than the 10%.

 

[sptrawler]

I can't see any compelling case for economic growth in any of the best known markets. High interest rates are strangling any prospect of growth and more hikes are on the cards. The public and private debt burden is increasing and real estate markets are teetering on the edge.

Short term, it all looks bad to me.

Which is what I was suggesting, the only way the West can clamp down on Chinas growth, is to decrease demand.

The only way they can stop the U.S doing that, is to break the U.S dollar being the reserve currency and force a level playing field.

The problem with that is, China has the better manufacturing value adding base, because the Western countries including us, sent our manufacturing there.

So now Australia really have a third world economy, with a first world lifestyle, underpinned by a currency valuation based on the U.S being the reserve currency.

Whereas China has a massive manufacturing base, but their market is controlled by the value ( buying power) of the currencies of western societies, which is controlled by the U.S.

Interesting times, unintended consequencies as usual, which as usual was driven by greed.
China wants to grow, but the West hasn't got the manufacturing base to compete with them.

So all they can do is control demand, while they work out how to get the manufacturing back home, funny that is exactly why big business got rid of Trump and now have a bigger problem.

What goes around, comes around.
Follow the money, the rest is side show IMO.

 

[farmerge]

Which is what I was suggesting, the only way the West can clamp down on Chinas growth, is to decrease demand.

The only way they can stop the U.S doing that, is to break the U.S dollar being the reserve currency and force a level playing field.

The problem with that is, China has the better manufacturing value adding base, because the Western countries including us, sent our manufacturing there.

So now Australia really have a third world economy, with a first world lifestyle, underpinned by a currency valuation based on the U.S being the reserve currency.

Whereas China has a massive manufacturing base, but their market is controlled by the value ( buying power) of the currencies of western societies, which is controlled by the U.S.
Interesting times, unintended consequencies as usual, which as usual was driven by greed.

What goes around, comes around.
Follow the money, the rest is side show IMO.

Unfortunately the price is now being payed for the demise of our manufacturing industry that we once had.
Bad choices with no foresight.

 

[Smurf1976]

Unfortunately the price is now being payed for the demise of our manufacturing industry that we once had.
Bad choices with no foresight.

Thing is. I can recall the inevitable consequences being talked about decades ago.

Big business or government may not have foreseen it but plenty did. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

 

[farmerge]

Thing is. I can recall the inevitable consequences being talked about decades ago.

Big business or government may not have foreseen it but plenty did. There’s a lesson in there somewhere.

Unfortunately the bum polishers in Canberra can see no further than the next election.

 

[sptrawler]

Unfortunately the price is now being payed for the demise of our manufacturing industry that we once had.
Bad choices with no foresight.

Absolutely and is what will take down the Western World , unless money is funnelled into developing our manufacturing base, rather than being funnelled into property and welfare, get the money out of the property ponzi and into manufacturing, create jobs to get people off the dole.
Stop making kids stay at school, for jobs that aren't there, while importing people to do do the jobs that are, just to increase the tax base and housing demand.
Get back to basics for christs sake.
It isn't flcking rocket science.
Charge overseas investors a 60% tax on property purchases, as Singapore did, make companies value add here or tax them more on their export tonnage, stop throwing money at people who don't want to move to work, when there is no good reason, look at ways to facilitate the move.
Stop the fckng rot.

 

[farmerge]

Absolutely and is what will take down the Western World , unless money is funnelled into developing our manufacturing base, rather than being funnelled into property and welfare, get the money out of the property ponzi and into manufacturing, create jobs to get people off the dole.
Stop making kids stay at school, for jobs that aren't there, while importing people to do do the jobs that are, just to increase the tax base and housing demand.
Get back to basics for christs sake.

hear hear, I hear the peasants shout.

 

[farmerge]

Time to depart for the night and listen to the howling wind.

 

[over9k]

Stop the fckng rot.

There's literally 0 plans to stop any of it. None.

 

[wayneL]

There's literally 0 plans to stop any of it. None.

It's almost as if its all intentional.

 

[sptrawler]

It's almost as if its all intentional.

In a way it is, it took 50 years to change a politicians role, from beong responsible for something, to now just saying it's not my job that is outsourced.

 

[TimeISmoney]

Unless this results in a new teir 1 reserve currency, I can't see it settling down between the U.S and China and the world order and the chaos will increase.
China manufactures the worlds appliances, the U.S regulates how much money people pay for them, by controlling the value of their currency.
Somethings got to give.
Just my two cents worth.

China is paying for oil in some countries with its own currency now, that's going to ruffle some feathers.

Which is what I was suggesting, the only way the West can clamp down on Chinas growth, is to decrease demand.

The only way they can stop the U.S doing that, is to break the U.S dollar being the reserve currency and force a level playing field.

The problem with that is, China has the better manufacturing value adding base, because the Western countries including us, sent our manufacturing there.

So now Australia really have a third world economy, with a first world lifestyle, underpinned by a currency valuation based on the U.S being the reserve currency.

Whereas China has a massive manufacturing base, but their market is controlled by the value ( buying power) of the currencies of western societies, which is controlled by the U.S.

Interesting times, unintended consequencies as usual, which as usual was driven by greed.
China wants to grow, but the West hasn't got the manufacturing base to compete with them.

So all they can do is control demand, while they work out how to get the manufacturing back home, funny that is exactly why big business got rid of Trump and now have a bigger problem.

What goes around, comes around.
Follow the money, the rest is side show IMO.

One thing I can vouch for in many ways is that the quality of China's manufacturing is under par, that's one thing the US and Europe have over them, even the Japanese made automotive stuff is well sought after than Chinese. I won't name the company but I put together the steel structure of one of the main gold miners in WA and they imported a heap of a structure fabricated in China, and my goodness the welds looked like they gave a welder to a 15 year old kid and let them rip.

The steel quality was a joke, when rectification work was needed you drilled holes in beams and the hardness of the steel varied dramatically, I very much doubt it even passed Australian standards. If you have a look at companies like Shimano all the high-end segment of gear (fishing and bikes) is still manufactured in Japan and it's done on purpose so that their manufacturing procedures and techniques aren't copied.

 

[mullokintyre]

China is paying for oil in some countries with its own currency now, that's going to ruffle some feathers.

One thing I can vouch for in many ways is that the quality of China's manufacturing is under par, that's one thing the US and Europe have over them, even the Japanese made automotive stuff is well sought after than Chinese. I won't name the company but I put together the steel structure of one of the main gold miners in WA and they imported a heap of a structure fabricated in China, and my goodness the welds looked like they gave a welder to a 15 year old kid and let them rip.

The steel quality was a joke, when rectification work was needed you drilled holes in beams and the hardness of the steel varied dramatically, I very much doubt it even passed Australian standards. If you have a look at companies like Shimano all the high-end segment of gear (fishing and bikes) is still manufactured in Japan and it's done on purpose so that their manufacturing procedures and techniques aren't copied.

It is interesting how time changes things.
Back in the 60's and 70's (last century), something that was of inferior quality was derisively called "jap made".
Then the Jap was swapped for Korean (LG was cheap electronic goods) as the quality of Japanese goods improved.
Now its Chinese that is at the bottom, and Korean stuff has moved up the ladder.
I refuse to buy after market car parts from China, they are invariably poorly made, often do not fit , and sometimes do not even work out of the box ( had that occur with a an aftermarket oxygen sensor and an oil pump).
Mick