Inflation

[over9k]

if it does normalize is that a good thing ?

yes

 

[mullokintyre]

OZ inflation just refuses to die!

So now the talk is will MS Bullock give us another 25 basis points increase on Cup Day?


Mick

 

[over9k]

I'd like to say yes, but I'm going to say no.

 

[sptrawler]

if it does normalize is that a good thing ?

If it normalises, with this amount of disruption going on in the World, I'll be be getting cash out, on the dead cat bounce. Lol

 

[TimeISmoney]

World must 'buckle up' for higher interest rates, warns IMF boss​

The war between Hamas terrorists and Israel has had a “visible” economic impact, according to the head of the International Monetary Fund, as she warned the era of low interest rates was over.

“Unquestionably we are in a more shock-prone world. And that requires countries to adapt to that world rather than pretend that it does not exist,” Kristalina Georgieva told the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh.

She said that while inflation was now slowly coming down “it is not going down fast enough”, adding: “So now ... our call to everybody is: buckle up. Make sure that you understand interest rates are here to stay for longer.”

Describing the conflict in the Middle East as “tragic”, Ms Georgieva warned that further global tensions would hurt an already fragile global recovery from the pandemic.

She said: “[In the] uncertain world we live in, growth is slow, and will remain slow for years to come. Inflation is still high and that requires interest rates to remain high, throwing more cold water on growth.

“Who in their right mind would then further negatively impact our prospects for growth by fragmenting the world economy? So please! Come to your senses, all of us!

“We have a very tragic moment by the people affected by the war that erupted. It is devastating for the families that have suffered losses. terrible for the economic prospects for the epicentre of the war [and will have a] negative impact on neighbours through trade channels, tourism channels, cost of insurance and a more jittery world [with] more anxiety in the world.”

 

[mullokintyre]

I'd like to say yes, but I'm going to say no.

Right, in that case, I am going to bet she will give us another 25 points.
I mean she said that renters are having it better this year than in 2021, so she is obviously very much in the loop, and has a pulse on what is happening out there in the burbs.
Mick

 

[eskys]

ommSec

@CommSec
·
4m

Question to RBA Governor: was the inflation result yesterday a 'material' change? RBA Governor: "we are still thinking about that"
@RBAInfo
#commsec
@CommSec
#ausecon #auspol

 

[over9k]

Bond yields also soared last night, and aus bonds pumped on the cpi release today too.

 

[Telamelo]

Right, in that case, I am going to bet she will give us another 25 points.
I mean she said that renters are having it better this year than in 2021, so she is obviously very much in the loop, and has a pulse on what is happening out there in the burbs.
Mick

Latest betting markets are as follows:

RBA "stays on hold" in November paying $2.88

RBA "any rate hike" in November paying $1.53

 

[divs4ever]

Latest betting markets are as follows:

RBA "stays on hold" in November paying $2.88

RBA "any rate hike" in November paying $1.53

just saying ... but it is fairly rare for the RBA to raise on Melbourne Cup Day

if it does to save the Ozzie Battler ( dollar ) will the hike be a whole 0.25 % ( or gasp ) even 0.4% and even out the weird rate

just been talking to a business owner ( in a capital city business ) and business was down the previous quarter , but suitable staff is still his major problem ( moreso than rising costs , etc. )

 

[Telamelo]

just saying ... but it is fairly rare for the RBA to raise on Melbourne Cup Day

if it does to save the Ozzie Battler ( dollar ) will the hike be a whole 0.25 % ( or gasp ) even 0.4% and even out the weird rate

just been talking to a business owner ( in a capital city business ) and business was down the previous quarter , but suitable staff is still his major problem ( moreso than rising costs , etc. )

Hmmm interesting to hear you say "it is fairly rare for RBA to raise on Melb. Cup Day" as got me thinking/tempted to consider juicy odds of $2.88 then as a potential "good bet" lol

 

[over9k]

Fed holds exactly as markets expected. Equity markets completely unresponsive. Bond yields all dumped however.

 

[divs4ever]

Fed holds exactly as markets expected. Equity markets completely unresponsive. Bond yields all dumped however.

if bond yields are dumped , who is buying them ??

unless the trend has changed there are less buyers and some just letting current holdings mature ( not rolling them into new bonds )

interesting times

 

[qldfrog]

if bond yields are dumped , who is buying them ??

unless the trend has changed there are less buyers and some just letting current holdings mature ( not rolling them into new bonds )

interesting times

Retail...nowhere near enough even short term

 

[over9k]

if bond yields are dumped , who is buying them ??

unless the trend has changed there are less buyers and some just letting current holdings mature ( not rolling them into new bonds )

interesting times

Probably banks holding them on the books as tier 1 capital.

 

[sptrawler]

My punt is that rates have to go higher.

 

[over9k]

My punt is that rates have to go higher.

Should and will are two different things.

 

[sptrawler]

Should and will are two different things.

That is true, the Govt is loving the higher for longer inflation, but sooner or later they have to stop the dollar sliding and house prices ramping.

 

[divs4ever]

My punt is that rates have to go higher.

yes i agree , but is there an election in the wind to make a near-term hike unpalatable ?

a hike in November would be unusual , but are the RBA desperate to shock the economy , the RBA isn't as trapped as some of it's international peers , it has a little wriggle-room ... so far

of course there is a second option ... the the truth on real inflation and hang on tight

( hey we have been fudging the data for over 30 years , but you can trust us , now )

 

[over9k]

That is true, the Govt is loving the higher for longer inflation, but sooner or later they have to stop the dollar sliding and house prices ramping.

I wouldn't be so sure of that trawler.