Inflation

[wayneL]

the other proven exit is a major war , and i don't like that option either ( despite being ill and close to 70 , heck they wouldn't even let me step on the treadmill for a 8 minute test and that was 3 years back ... i won't be crew in a main battle-tank , let alone march to the front line )

Jeez, ruminating on this...

I'm not that far behind you, Divs and fortunately of good health. But I guess we can both count ourselves lucky as being in that sweet spot where we we were never called upon to go to war against our will.

I'm not so confident the current generation will escape that

 

[sptrawler]

Jeez, ruminating on this...

I'm not that far behind you, Divs and fortunately of good health. But I guess we can both count ourselves lucky as being in that sweet spot where we we were never called upon to go to war against our will.

I'm not so confident the current generation will escape that

It would be ironic, the invaders fighting the invaders yet again.
I wonder how many would sign up, considering the latest issues both military and domestic?

 

[divs4ever]

Jesus, fourth turnings truly suck

but in chaos is also opportunity .. if we can seize it

 

[divs4ever]

Jeez, ruminating on this...

I'm not that far behind you, Divs and fortunately of good health. But I guess we can both count ourselves lucky as being in that sweet spot where we we were never called upon to go to war against our will.

I'm not so confident the current generation will escape that

don't fret , i have had poor health all my life ( they can't even guess when i had the major heart damage ), now my detractors call me lazy , but i call it energy efficiency

however i have seen glimpses hope among the youngsters , maybe some can


BTW i narrowly missed out on being eligible for conscription ( just a shade too young ) before they stopped it

 

[over9k]

Jeez, ruminating on this...

I'm not that far behind you, Divs and fortunately of good health. But I guess we can both count ourselves lucky as being in that sweet spot where we we were never called upon to go to war against our will.

I'm not so confident the current generation will escape that

The probability of getting this generation of young men to go and fight/die in some bull**** war, even if drafted, is pretty fcuking low. Have you seen all the "recruiting crisis" videos floating around?

They're more likely to have a civil war than an international one at this point.

 

[wayneL]

The probability of getting this generation of young men to go and fight/die in some bull**** war, even if drafted, is pretty fcuking low. Have you seen all the "recruiting crisis" videos floating around?

They're more likely to have a civil war than an international one at this point.

They might be concurrent, otherwise I agree.

 

[Smurf1976]

Quality has become an issue with a lot of things

A large portion of "known" brands that've been around forever are in 2023 nothing more than a shell company, a name slapped onto generic products.

Indeed most of what used to be the big names in appliances and electronics are in that category today. The only thing that sill exists is the name, that's it, the rest's completely gone. Consumer thinks they're buying a name brand product but what they're really buying is a cheap generic with a familiar looking badge.

 

[over9k]

A large portion of "known" brands that've been around forever are in 2023 nothing more than a shell company, a name slapped onto generic products.

Indeed most of what used to be the big names in appliances and electronics are in that category today. The only thing that sill exists is the name, that's it, the rest's completely gone. Consumer thinks they're buying a name brand product but what they're really buying is a cheap generic with a familiar looking badge.

Or buying the real deal but discovering it's now produced somewhere/by someone very different to what they thought.

 

[divs4ever]

They're more likely to have a civil war than an international one at this point.

well the US is starting to talk about conscription BUT the only problem with that is you are likely training the up-and-coming rebels in your tactics as the Civil War gathers momentum

civil war vs. international conflict will depend on the government propaganda machine , Canada would be Mr. Simp this time so would objectors (peaceniks ) be leaving via the Mexican border or just changing sides

 

[over9k]

I wouldn't be too concerned about which side would actually win if such a thing did kick off.

But we're way off topic for this thread.

 

[divs4ever]

I wouldn't be too concerned about which side would actually win if such a thing did kick off.

But we're way off topic for this thread.

but some commentators have already reminded us that it is a proven exit for an out-of-control inflation spiral , but the reality is inflation hits the lower and middle classes hardest ( either with or without a war )

the rich hide in university courses , friendly domiciles , in administration offices in the military ( and their academies )

i saw all this during the Vietnam Era ..and that was officially 'a police action '

so we either climb up the inflation escalator , war OR the government actually cuts spending ( like for sure that is going to happen )

inflation is HERE , the data is being 'massaged' ( rather than budgets being trimmed ) so inflation is out-of-control , does Albo rush to a snap-election before reality dawns on the masses

remember in theory we still have 100 F-35s and some nuclear subs to pay for , our military expenditure is NOT going down , and wage costs are going UP ( to try to catch the inflation already in the system ) they are trying the boosting the compulsory super game again ... but will the workers believe this time ( after the Hayne Royal Commission )

 

[divs4ever]

hyperinflation in reality is a complete loss of trust in your currency (use it now before it is valueless )

will we get there or will there be a different exit discovered

 

[over9k]

Australian PMI ticks back upwards. Considering the oil price rise recently, and how trailing the data is, this is probably the data's inflection point now.

Which will also mean that interest rates will come under fresh pressure shortly.

 

[IvoryWolf]

Australian PMI ticks back upwards. Considering the oil price rise recently, and how trailing the data is, this is probably the data's inflection point now.

Which will also mean that interest rates will come under fresh pressure shortly.

Agreed about the fresh pressure on interest rates, considering a firm close below 45 on the VGB at the end of last week alongside continued pressure on TLT (long-term US treasuries).

 

[over9k]

Another chicken coming home to roost.

 

[over9k]

Mass immigration. The population would be in decline, and the demand side would be dropping, if not for it.

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 163369

Another chicken coming home to roost.

was half expecting that to be just another can kicked down the road

maybe it will become an election promise for 2024 ( some sort of reduction/forgiveness )

 

[divs4ever]

View attachment 163408

Mass immigration. The population would be in decline, and the demand side would be dropping, if not for it.

yep, they have pulled that lever before as well

 

[mullokintyre]

The fall in the AUD will start to import more inflation soon.
Whether it be fuel, solar panels, crap that people get at the 2$ shop, electronic appliances, planes, trains and automobiles, all will rise due to exchange rate killers.
The alternative of course s to use another currency to trade with China, or other Aisan countries.
Just can't see that happening.

 

[divs4ever]

Just can't see that happening.

not with our current leaders , i agree

but let's see what happens will Ablo jump ( into a double dissolution ) early and try for government in it's own right ( and risk removal )