Inflation

[sptrawler]

Not being funny here, if I was in charge, it's how I would deal with it. I've even stated as such on this forum.

It's quite possibly (probably) why they're so hesitant to actually get inflation under control.

Absolutely, I don't know how many times I've said the Government doesn't sell blankets, fridges etc, they take taxes, if they have a bigger debt they have to take more taxes. It ain't rocket science.
If you had a million dollars debt and you can only save an extra $20k a year to pay it off, you are in deep $hit.
Same with the Govt, they have about $600billion debt, they can't knock it down with a $20billion surplus, whoopee do we only owe $580billion.
So how do they increase their surplus? increase taxes, or increase their tax take by inflation. which is the easiest.
Well there you go, Bingo come on down your a winner, unless you are at the bottom end of the food chain, there it really hurts.
Just my thoughts and in my opinion there really needs to be a discussion about how we move forward with taxes, there are way too many agendas going on when at the same time we have a diminishing tax base.
Sooner or later someone has to address the underlying problem, we are selling our only asset (resources) and spending the money on maintaining our lifestyle, that is unsustainable and it is morally and fiscally criminal IMO.

 

[over9k]

You're free to start voting for minor parties any time you like.

Fact is that rightly or wrongly, everyone want someone else to pay for it all. Good luck getting a recession or tax increases or whatever "that we have to have" past the ballot box.

 

[sptrawler]

You're free to start voting for minor parties any time you like.

They are all on the teat, voting for anyone is the same outcome.
Buy deckchairs, beach umbrellas and Bingtang tee shirts IMO, that will be the growth industry for our grandkids IMO.

 

[over9k]

Energy security is everything

 

[sptrawler]

View attachment 163101

Energy security is everything

The Whales have it.

Woodside's Scarborough gas project dealt blow with part of its environmental plan ruled invalid

Woodside's massive Scarborough gas development suffers a major blow, with the Federal Court finding an environmental plan for part of the project was not legally approved and was therefore invalid.

www.abc.net.au

Woodside's massive Scarborough gas development has been dealt a major blow, with the Federal Court finding an environmental plan for part of the project was not legally approved and was therefore invalid.

The company had been hoping to start a form of underwater surveying for the US$12 billion project – located off WA's Pilbara coast – earlier this month.

But it agreed to put those plans on hold while a legal challenge brought by traditional owner Raelene Cooper, arguing that she was not adequately consulted, was heard in the Federal Court.

Ms Cooper's concerns were around the potential impact of the surveying on sea life, including whales which carry Indigenous songlines.

 

[mullokintyre]

While we are on the subject of US housing stats, pending home sales ( bsically those homes that have been put on the market), have fallen of the edge of the world.




As can be seen from the chart, the pending home sales have basically been in free fall since the end of 2020.
It would seem that the folks planning on upgrading their home are not interested in doing so at the current interest rates,
With the price of energy going up and still feeding inflation, the FED is going to be stuck between a wall of rocks.
Something will have to be sacrificed. Will it be the fight against inflation?
Will oit be the homeowners and potential owners?
Will it be the stock market?
Will it be all of the above?
I am not as positive as some others.
Mick

 

[over9k]

"My opinion is that we're going to have 10 year rates at 5% or higher because this inflation is going to be embedded".

Exactly.

 

[wayneL]

View attachment 163182

"My opinion is that we're going to have 10 year rates at 5% or higher because this inflation is going to be embedded".

Exactly.

When you think about it, they can't let it slip to much under that. Inflation is the easy option.

 

[mullokintyre]

View attachment 163182

"My opinion is that we're going to have 10 year rates at 5% or higher because this inflation is going to be embedded".

Exactly.

Nah, the fools caused so much of the problems via QE then QT, they will eventually relax the bonds if things look bad enough.
Stagflation, wit no one buying things coz they cant afford it, technical or real recession, watch them loosen the money supply and rates.
Its in their DNA.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Depends what the powers that be that own the media decide to crucify them for.

 

[IvoryWolf]

While we are on the subject of US housing stats, pending home sales ( bsically those homes that have been put on the market), have fallen of the edge of the world.

View attachment 163142

View attachment 163143
As can be seen from the chart, the pending home sales have basically been in free fall since the end of 2020.
It would seem that the folks planning on upgrading their home are not interested in doing so at the current interest rates,
With the price of energy going up and still feeding inflation, the FED is going to be stuck between a wall of rocks.
Something will have to be sacrificed. Will it be the fight against inflation?
Will oit be the homeowners and potential owners?
Will it be the stock market?
Will it be all of the above?
I am not as positive as some others.
Mick

I suppose the logic behind this one is fairly simple - those with 30 year mortgages in the U.S. locked in at low rates prior to the rate hikes wouldn't be willing to let those go, and who would blame them? They'd be sitting pretty! If we had the opportunity here in Australia, I'm sure we'd snap these up too.

 

[divs4ever]

's when i took out a mortgage s one is fairly simple - those with 30 year mortgages in the U.S. locked in at low rates prior to the rate hikes wouldn't be willing to let those go, and who would blame them? They'd be sitting pretty! If we had the opportunity here in Australia, I'm sure we'd snap these up too.

yes , an interesting paradox

back in the 1970's when i took out a mortgage i doubt anyone was offered a 30 year mortgage and that was when many workers were liable to work for the same company for their ( working ) life

in fact back then i remember two'farewell parties ' for employees who clocked up 40 years of service , but with rates were up around 15% ( mine was 17.5% ) i doubt 'locking them in ' was very attractive ( to mortgagees )i i remember my parents scrimped and saved and paid out their mortgage in 1964 early enough to finally buy a decent second hand car ( instead of a 'fixer-upper ')

but now with the threat of robotics and AI very few jobs have any sort of employment security , you can borrow for 30 years ( even at fixed rates ) and in fact many long-term employees are seen as 'deadwood ' and the first ones to be cut in rationalizations

 

[divs4ever]

Monthly Inflation Reported Higher In August!​

Monthly Inflation Reported Higher In August!

No surprise that the volatile monthly series measure of inflation went higher this past month, thanks to higher petrol, electricity and gas prices, plus significant insurance price hikes. Some off-setting measures were lower and the core was down a bit, but it does put the RBA in the spot light...

onion.tube

 

[qldfrog]

While we are on the subject of US housing stats, pending home sales ( bsically those homes that have been put on the market), have fallen of the edge of the world.

View attachment 163142

View attachment 163143
As can be seen from the chart, the pending home sales have basically been in free fall since the end of 2020.
It would seem that the folks planning on upgrading their home are not interested in doing so at the current interest rates,
With the price of energy going up and still feeding inflation, the FED is going to be stuck between a wall of rocks.
Something will have to be sacrificed. Will it be the fight against inflation?
Will oit be the homeowners and potential owners?
Will it be the stock market?
Will it be all of the above?
I am not as positive as some others.
Mick

The fight against inflation is a lose lose for governments in debt so no wonder it will be thrown away. As soon as politically possible.we are in for mega inflation and when all wealth is sucked from savers , a new crypto central bank currency

 

[divs4ever]

The fight against inflation is a lose lose for governments in debt so no wonder it will be thrown away. As soon as politically possible.we are in for mega inflation and when all wealth is sucked from savers , a new crypto central bank currency

one might wonder if the trend for digital currency and online shopping ( linked to a digital ID ) will start a multi-level market system ( much like a recently discussed 'Chairman's Lounge ') for selected citizens

but heck i love investigating conspiracies ( after watching the JFK assassination and following events when i was still at primary school )

BTW the first rifle the police descended with,was NOT a Carcano (it's freaking sad when you can't fool a 10 year old )

 

[moXJO]

View attachment 163182

"My opinion is that we're going to have 10 year rates at 5% or higher because this inflation is going to be embedded".

Exactly.

"Fragmentation of supply chains" is going to be the problem. It flows onto everything and either reduces choice, or cheaper alternatives- and then effectively hits the next down the line.

Quality has become an issue with a lot of things.

 

[divs4ever]

"Fragmentation of supply chains" is going to be the problem. It flows onto everything and either reduces choice, or cheaper alternatives- and then effectively hits the next down the line.

Quality has become an issue with a lot of things.

oh yes , i totally agree there

suddenly it is no longer strictly a cost-cutting decision , it is sometimes a decision to delay or use what is available , and will flow into productivity metrics as well ( repairing inferior parts when they fail , later on )

 

[wayneL]

The fight against inflation is a lose lose for governments in debt so no wonder it will be thrown away. As soon as politically possible.we are in for mega inflation and when all wealth is sucked from savers , a new crypto central bank currency

It is the only way out for governments and Central Banks... And we have seen this playbook before over millennia.

Invest accordingly (easier said than done)

 

[divs4ever]

It is the only way out for governments and Central Banks... And we have seen this playbook before over millennia.

Invest accordingly (easier said than done)

the other proven exit is a major war , and i don't like that option either ( despite being ill and close to 70 , heck they wouldn't even let me step on the treadmill for a 8 minute test and that was 3 years back ... i won't be crew in a main battle-tank , let alone march to the front line )

 

[wayneL]

the other proven exit is a major war , and i don't like that option either ( despite being ill and close to 70 , heck they wouldn't even let me step on the treadmill for a 8 minute test and that was 3 years back ... i won't be crew in a main battle-tank , let alone march to the front line )

And major war may be on the cards.

Jesus, fourth turnings truly suck