Inflation

[wayneL]

Meanwhile:

View attachment 160709View attachment 160707

And they even have several others staring down the barrel likely added to the list soon:

View attachment 160708

Remember that recessions are just like nature - the weakest perish first and then down the line we go.

A few months back it was the small banks, now these ones are mid size banks.

Next will be the bigger ones.

Where to park cash? Like, a lot of cash? ?

 

[wayneL]

I don't actually think you've missed all of the opportunity even now. Kind of like how I keep saying there's time left to get your money out of china if you have any there.

You've missed some of the opportunity yes, but not all of it.

Llewellyn-Smith shares your view

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/why-the-australian-dollar-will-hit-a-record-low-in-the-next-five-years/news-story/2dec137f147d8ac624d93489e60dd353

 

[over9k]

Llewellyn-Smith shares your view

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/why-the-australian-dollar-will-hit-a-record-low-in-the-next-five-years/news-story/2dec137f147d8ac624d93489e60dd353

10/10 article. Bullseye'd everything.

 

[over9k]

Where to park cash? Like, a lot of cash? ?

4.28 equivalent annual rate plus whatever you gain from the currency movement is pretty good.

I'd actually be kind of tempted to park a bit in NZD too as NZ relies massively on tourism and tourism is a superior good so it's first to be cut from the shopping list when money gets tight, ergo the NZD is likely to be pummeled even more than the AUD. It also has an excellent interest rate for your savings near twice the alternatives. It'd give you a nice hedge for a pretty cheap holiday if nothing else.

If my prediction is correct then flights, hotel rooms etc there will end up very cheap too even ignoring the currency dumping

 

[waterbottle]

US banks looking shaky. There will be some strain. Not sure how the US will become the paragon for growth when financials are straining and commentators are comparing the AI boom to the tech boom...

 

[over9k]

Best of a bad bunch.

 

[wayneL]

View attachment 160710View attachment 160711

4.28 equivalent annual rate plus whatever you gain from the currency movement is pretty good.

I'd actually be kind of tempted to park a bit in NZD too as NZ relies massively on tourism and tourism is a superior good so it's first to be cut from the shopping list when money gets tight, ergo the NZD is likely to be pummeled even more than the AUD. It also has an excellent interest rate for your savings near twice the alternatives. It'd give you a nice hedge for a pretty cheap holiday if nothing else.

If my prediction is correct then flights, hotel rooms etc there will end up very cheap too even ignoring the currency dumping

Interestingly HSBC is where I have most of it... Just a bit freaking nervous about banks in general though.

 

[over9k]

Interestingly HSBC is where I have most of it... Just a bit freaking nervous about banks in general though.

Depends how much cash you're actually talking about wayne - there's a government guarantee on 250k in all financial institutions. You could break a mil up between four banks if you were really really worried.

 

[over9k]

This would be a great piece to get an undergrad econ class to watch and analyse, ask them what he's talking about, what he's identifying etc etc.

 

[over9k]

BOIL now well & truly on the move

 

[frugal.rock]

What's the causation in today's case?

 

[over9k]

What's the causation in today's case?

View attachment 160752

 

[over9k]

Meanwhile:



As I said previously, we had a little slump in the oil price and these numbers are always trailing so I reckon the data will come back pretty good (relatively) this time and perhaps one more bunch will come out better than expected next month before we start to see more bad stuff start to hit again now that the oil price has rebounded.

 

[Smurf1976]

Bought an item from Bunnings, $9.32

Bought the exact same item, same brand and size, 5 years ago also from Bunnings. Price back then = $6.15

OK so that's a minor item but as we've seen with the collapse of now countless builders, we're in a world where "just in time" approaches to inventory are a good way to end up in trouble. Buying as much up front as possible is lower risk.

 

[over9k]

Bought an item from Bunnings, $9.32

Bought the exact same item, same brand and size, 5 years ago also from Bunnings. Price back then = $6.15

OK so that's a minor item but as we've seen with the collapse of now countless builders, we're in a world where "just in time" approaches to inventory are a good way to end up in trouble. Buying as much up front as possible is lower risk.

Hearing that a lot of stuff is just supply issues at the moment too. Can't get the materials = can't start work, even if you pay through the nose for whatever tradies you need.

 

[farmerge]

Bought an item from Bunnings, $9.32

Bought the exact same item, same brand and size, 5 years ago also from Bunnings. Price back then = $6.15

OK so that's a minor item but as we've seen with the collapse of now countless builders, we're in a world where "just in time" approaches to inventory are a good way to end up in trouble. Buying as much up front as possible is lower risk.

Hmmm Cheaper prices are just the beginning!!!!

 

[over9k]

U.S cpi rises bang on estimates of 4.7.

 

[over9k]

So all the growth plays (basically everything in fact but the growth plays in particular) opened deep into the green (NDX was up ~1.6 at peak) right from the open and have just melted all session and as of 1.22 are looking like they're going to end up negative in about an hour and wouldn't you know it, fixed income is now doing this:



Markets seem to be starting to realise

 

[over9k]

It has begun.

 

[over9k]

Hence the "stickyness" of inflation.

And then this immediately followed:



He then went on to point out that the rally of this year has been the "most concentrated ever" where "the magnificent seven" (seven huge tech companies) accounted for about 2/3 to 3/4 of the entire rally.

Dude isn't wrong.