Inflation

[sptrawler]

That would be Mandurah?

View attachment 160331
And for clarification, it that the Bridge of Sighs or the Bridge of Size midview?

Trust me they are holiday homes, check out the other side of town, near the forum. Lol
Never trust the glossy brochures always do your own research.
The good thing is a lot of the run down derelect homes are being bought by Eastern States buyers which is good, because many are actually now getting money spent on them, rather than leaving them empty and targets for homeless and vandals.

The WA city where you can get fed for free but there's no place to sleep

As wet weather lashes Perth's southern regions Kirsty Buchanan is spending her nights on the cold, rainy, streets of Mandurah — one of many in the seaside city doing it tough.

www.abc.net.au

Teen seriously injured in stabbing attack at shopping centre

Police say the brawl broke out in front of shocked shoppers.

7news.com.au

Unemployment, low work hours linked to suicides

The impact of jobs on mental health has been highlighted by research suggesting about 10 per cent of...

www.mandurahmail.com.au

 

[over9k]

The rba SHOULD be hiking, but whether it does or not is another question entirely.

 

[mullokintyre]

Meanwhile, in the USA, a couple of items that may affect inflationary outcomes.
Firstly, crude oil is contunuing to rise.
From zero Hedge


On the other hand, there has been a signifcant contraction in the manufacturing sector. Once again from Zdro hedge



This is highlighted by what is happening in Texas, one of the bigger manufacturing states.


Conflicting indicators would perhaps point to hyperinflation where although the supply of goods is decreasing, inflation still runs.
mick

 

[waterbottle]

RBA holds. Counting down to the rapid cuts...

 

[over9k]

RBA holds. Counting down to the rapid cuts...

And the AUD dumps in response.

 

[waterbottle]

And the AUD dumps in response.

Sorta. -0.7% at the moment - I would say that's an expected move, not huge. AUDUSD has been in a range for the past few months. Besides, there are multiple factors that go into FX - I'm sure the worsening data coming out of China & South Korea are probably going to have a bigger impact compared to the IR differential, but who knows.

PLowe's still threatening the market with another possible hike. It's the same rhetoric coming out of the US.
On the one hand they still fear inflation is an issue - which IMO I think we will see an upwards MoM print thanks to crude's 20% rebound in the past month and the downstream effects it will have on the economy - yet they're worried about a measly 25bps hike? I mean, how much straw does this camel have on it's back that it can't take another strand?
There must be some other information out there that must be worrying them.

 

[divs4ever]

RBA holds. Counting down to the rapid cuts...

am not so sure about the rapid cuts ( unless it is way too late when they start )

 

[waterbottle]

am not so sure about the rapid cuts ( unless it is way too late when they start )

Dunno, history says that rapid hikes are followed by a plateau and then rapid cuts.... (both RBA & the Fed)

 

[frugal.rock]

Dunno, history says that rapid hikes are followed by a plateau and then rapid cuts.... (both RBA & the Fed)

Yeah, but, this time it's different...
The inflation pond isn't quite out of ripples yet, imo. Not quite at the point of diminishing returns from rate rises.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Yeah, but, this time it's different...
The inflation pond isn't quite out of ripples yet, imo. Not quite at the point of diminishing returns from rate rises.

I don't know @frugal.rock.

These numbers and prognostications fail to take in to account the mob's ability to switch and sway their spending and job takeup quite independently of the prophets of doom. So the matrix it is not. A non-binary dance.

My guess, and it is a guess is that we are out of it, or near out of it.

gg

 

[frugal.rock]

My guess, and it is a guess is that we are out of it, or near out of it.

And not a bad guess it is, however those scoundrels at OPEC seem to have succeeded in pushing up the POO, thus I think we will have another smaller ripple due to the continuing rising of energy costs.

 

[waterbottle]

And not a bad guess it is, however those scoundrels at OPEC seem to have succeeded in pushing up the POO, thus I think we will have another smaller ripple due to the continuing rising of energy costs.

OPEC protectionism.
SPR supply will eventually have to be cut off or it gets to zero given that its almost halved in the space of a year.

Meanwhile there's all this good news about a soft landing and US avoiding recession, so why wouldn't you speculate on a bounce in commodities...

Is the Ruso-Ukrainian/US/NATO war still going on?

 

[frugal.rock]

It's just the contrarian in me saying be careful with these 5 month high's. Someone predicted a blow off top soon enough, makes sense.
It's a wait and see game as always.

 

[over9k]

Sorta. -0.7% at the moment - I would say that's an expected move, not huge. AUDUSD has been in a range for the past few months. Besides, there are multiple factors that go into FX - I'm sure the worsening data coming out of China & South Korea are probably going to have a bigger impact compared to the IR differential, but who knows.

PLowe's still threatening the market with another possible hike. It's the same rhetoric coming out of the US.
On the one hand they still fear inflation is an issue - which IMO I think we will see an upwards MoM print thanks to crude's 20% rebound in the past month and the downstream effects it will have on the economy - yet they're worried about a measly 25bps hike? I mean, how much straw does this camel have on it's back that it can't take another strand?
There must be some other information out there that must be worrying them.

-1.2 now.

 

[over9k]

Hopefully I shouldn't have to connect these two dots for everyone.

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 160395View attachment 160394

Hopefully I shouldn't have to connect these two dots for everyone.

But house prices go up with inflation? Max confuse

 

[over9k]

But house prices go up with inflation? Max confuse

Houses are bought with credit, inflation pumps rates, rates make credit more expensive.

 

[Knobby22]

The Government has a contractive budget compared to the previous one that reduces money from the economy and secondly Australians are more susceptible to interest rate rises due to the fact variable rates are used for loans.

Though we are a percentage point below many other similar countries the above points aid the interest rate rises effectiveness over the short term.

We are on track to achieve the desired soft landing.

I reckon it will be a hard landing in those other countries.They have overcooked it.

 

[divs4ever]

Yeah, but, this time it's different...
The inflation pond isn't quite out of ripples yet, imo. Not quite at the point of diminishing returns from rate rises.

in previous cycles i have endured , either wages rise ( eventually ) or productivity drops possibly because some staff are moon-lighting ( working extra jobs ) to make ends meet

but maybe it is different this time

 

[over9k]

The Government has a contractive budget compared to the previous one that reduces money from the economy and secondly Australians are more susceptible to interest rate rises due to the fact variable rates are used for loans.

Though we are a percentage point below many other similar countries the above points aid the interest rate rises effectiveness over the short term.

We are on track to achieve the desired soft landing.

I reckon it will be a hard landing in those other countries.They have overcooked it.

Europe yes, china yes, USA no, but not for the interest-rate-rise reason you think.

The end was nigh for europe/asia anyway.