Inflation

[divs4ever]

But house prices go up with inflation? Max confuse

not necessarily , yes costs of materials and wages go up, but sometimes quality and corners are cut to take the sting out of the inflation

so the price might stay low , but the quality plummets

the other cause of low house prices are forced sales ( ie foreclosures where the lender tries to minimize losses )

 

[frugal.rock]

A curious stat for Aus is that 1 in 4 properties sold is being bought with "cash", ie, no loan.
With that ratio, it would appear that the housing sector is probably in a pretty good place in comparison to other countries.
(1:4 ratio read in some article, can't remember where)

 

[over9k]

A curious stat for Aus is that 1 in 4 properties sold is being bought with "cash", ie, no loan.
With that ratio, it would appear that the housing sector is probably in a pretty good place in comparison to other countries.
(1:4 ratio read in some article, can't remember where)

Need more info on this before concluding anything rock, e.g which houses, by which people, so on and so forth.

A lot of boomers selling a 3 bedroom crack den in sydney and moving to an 83 room palace up/down the coast perhaps?

 

[frugal.rock]

East coast clan labs. Mainland. ?
Data for 2022

Properties worth more than $25bn were bought with cash in Australia’s three biggest states in early 2023

Many cash purchases were made in regional areas of NSW, Victoria and Queensland as buyers downsized to less expensive housing

www.theguardian.com

Quarter of all residential properties bought with cash in 2022

Older, regional buyers unaffected by higher interest rates, says PEXA

www.brokernews.com.au

 

[waterbottle]

I'm interested to hear why the US/Aus would stay out of recession

 

[over9k]

I'm interested to hear why the US/Aus would stay out of recession

U.S because of a lot of actual real economic strengths, aus because of the almost de facto erasure of borders resulting in the highest per-capita immigration levels in the world.

But remember that GDP is just the total amount of money, not its distribution. If the population grew proportionately more than the pie did then we're all actually worse off aren't we?

And that's before we even start on pies which are bigger on account of only the top 1% of slices getting larger...

 

[over9k]

jfc

 

[Smurf1976]

Received the council rates notice today.

Up 9.03% year on year.

Just another data point about inflation in the real world.

 

[farmerge]

View attachment 160355

The rba SHOULD be hiking, but whether it does or not is another question entirely.

Gives those suffering credit squeeze a little breathing space for this month anyway.

 

[farmerge]

Received the council rates notice today.

Up 9.03% year on year.

Just another data point about inflation in the real world.

Smurf 9% seems a pretty hefty lift on the previous year. I guess that includes rubbish pick up and fire levy

 

[Smurf1976]

Smurf 9% seems a pretty hefty life on the previous year. I guess that includes rubbish pick up and fire levy

Yes includes rubbish etc.

In SA however there's a separate levy for emergency services, the bluntly named Emergency Services Levy, which is a tax as such. Here's our bill now pay it Sir.... That's separate to council rates and is a state government charge. I've no idea if that's going up or not, time will tell.

Note the ESL doesn't cover ambulances however, those being user pays in all states except Queensland and Tasmania where government funds them from general taxation.

 

[over9k]

There's actually a lot to glean from this. I've gotta get to bed but if everyone care to take a guess I'll come back to it once I'm up and tell everyone what's what

 

[waterbottle]

View attachment 160407

There's actually a lot to glean from this. I've gotta get to bed but if everyone care to take a guess I'll come back to it once I'm up and tell everyone what's what

Long end of curve starting to rise? So I guess this is the inversion reversing...

 

[divs4ever]

A curious stat for Aus is that 1 in 4 properties sold is being bought with "cash", ie, no loan.
With that ratio, it would appear that the housing sector is probably in a pretty good place in comparison to other countries.
(1:4 ratio read in some article, can't remember where)

well with the nervousness of lenders some 'sales' involving a mortgage can take some time ( if it proceeds at all )

i wonder what happens when the 'cash' runs out

 

[waterbottle]

Lol

US Stripped of AAA Rating by Fitch as Budget Deficits Swell

Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of US government debt sparked criticism from Washington and Wall Street even amid unease that swollen fiscal deficits risk eventual turbulence in markets, the economy and next year’s presidential election.

www.bloomberg.com

 

[waterbottle]

NZ with surprise increase to unemployment, now 3.6%
Interesting to watch as RBNZ seems to have been leading the CB cohort with rate hikes.

 

[mullokintyre]

NZ with surprise increase to unemployment, now 3.6%
Interesting to watch as RBNZ seems to have been leading the CB cohort with rate hikes.

View attachment 160433

Surprise?
Given that its been rising since jan 2022, albeit in small increments, I would not call it surprising.
The latest increment is probably higher than the last four though.
Be interesting to see net quarter whether that upward increse is sustained or even greater.
Mick

 

[waterbottle]

Surprise?
Given that its been rising since jan 2022, albeit in small increments, I would not call it surprising.
The latest increment is probably higher than the last four though.
Be interesting to see net quarter whether that upward increse is sustained or even greater.
Mick

Even the recent data point is low.

The current narrative RE: soft landing, is dependent on unemployment remaining low - as has been the case in the US and Aus.
This is data showing that despite unemployment being low for so long, it is continuing to trend upwards and hints at possibly invalidating the soft landing narrative. Particularly so given manufacturing indices for the US remain contractionary...

 

[mullokintyre]

Even the recent data point is low.

The current narrative RE: soft landing, is dependent on unemployment remaining low - as has been the case in the US and Aus.
This is data showing that despite unemployment being low for so long, it is continuing to trend upwards and hints at possibly invalidating the soft landing narrative. Particularly so given manufacturing indices for the US remain contractionary...

NZ does not have a terrible big manufacturing sector , only about 12% of GDP according to NZ govt ,
TheIr unemployment will mainly come from serivces sector, tourism, is a big one.
With the Labour party very much on the nose in NZ, most are expecting a change in govt to the Nationals (see Murdoch Press ), one might logically expect a contraction in the bloated NZ public service.
According to NZ Govt Workforce Data , 18.7% of the workforce is in the public service.
That is a lot of fat cats to feed, and a perfect target for a conservative government to hit early on.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Lol

View attachment 160426

US Stripped of AAA Rating by Fitch as Budget Deficits Swell

Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of US government debt sparked criticism from Washington and Wall Street even amid unease that swollen fiscal deficits risk eventual turbulence in markets, the economy and next year’s presidential election.

www.bloomberg.com

Hence my previous post about the amount of long duration/30 year being sold. It's all connected.