Inflation

[Dona Ferentes]

Australian numbers

 

[mullokintyre]

Australian numbers

Given Australia's GDP composition has been 2/3rds services 1/3 goods, the rising services costs are going to have a bigger impact than falling goods.
Don't think we are out of the woods just yet.
Mick

 

[over9k]

Larry Summers' 6% prediction in 2022 doesn't seem that crazy anymore.

It's almost as if the former u.s treasury secretary might have some clue what he is talking about hey?

 

[mullokintyre]

It's almost as if the former u.s treasury secretary might have some clue what he is talking about hey?

Nah.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

This is also going to add more fuel to the fire re: australian rates being "so far behind the rest of the world" or what have you that is currently dominating headlines over here.

Something tells me the old "australia is different" bull**** is going to be rolled out in response yet again.

well last i heard Australia still has a trade surplus , sure our assorted governments believe the tax-payer is the tooth-fairy in disguise , but we still somehow manage to sell more than we slash around

i expect more hiking , but would like to be wrong this time ( i see at least two more hikes this calendar year )

 

[waterbottle]

edit: video not displaying

Just saw this.
I've been subscribed to a few local real estate mailing lists for the past few months and have noticed that properties in Sydney are now getting passed in that would have otherwise been snapped up during boom times.
Remains to be seen if listings are up though - hard to find good sources of data on real estate without having to pay an overpriced subscription fee.

 

[waterbottle]

Nah.
Mick

Larry was pretty much right though.... Fed probably has another 25 or 50bps in hikes. That's pretty much 6%. When he made that call economists were predicting 2-3% as the terminal rate...

 

[over9k]

Larry was pretty much right though.... Fed probably has another 25 or 50bps in hikes. That's pretty much 6%. When he made that call economists were predicting 2-3% as the terminal rate...

I think mick was taking the piss...

 

[waterbottle]

Uh how are we still selling iron ore?

 

[divs4ever]

Just saw this.
I've been subscribed to a few local real estate mailing lists for the past few months and have noticed that properties in Sydney are now getting passed in that would have otherwise been snapped up during boom times.
Remains to be seen if listings are up though - hard to find good sources of data on real estate without having to pay an overpriced subscription fee.

try walk the world ( DFA/ Martin North )

channel:UCKWDscRjYFTD1KHsmow4-bQ

he still uses the published data + surveys but strives to be unbiased

 

[over9k]

I'm going to call it now and say that the next thing they'll state (admit) is that we're living in a new paradigm/that the old way(s) of thinking (and modelling) no longer apply and we need a whole new approach or what have you.

Called it:

 

[waterbottle]

Back in my day, before guvmint could just turn off your money...

 

[Smurf1976]

If the Dow closes higher Thursday for a 14th consecutive session, that would be its longest run of consecutive gains since May 1897.

Should the Dow end the day higher today, and for a 15th straight day on Friday, that would mark the index’s longest daily winning streak ever.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/27/investing/dow-stock-market-news-today/index.html

Even if it doesn't actually set a record, we're still very much at an extreme right now with what's occurring.

Personally I think the market's being far too optimistic and ignoring problems in the real economy but time will tell. We're coming into the traditionally volatile period of the year after all.

 

[mullokintyre]

We specialise in extremes these days.
Whether it be wings, weather or finance.
Mick

 

[Dona Ferentes]

We specialise in extremes these days.
Whether it be wings, weather or finance.

Too true, Mick. Give us this day our daily panic.

The complex beast is adjusting for new information

upward revision in the US economy’s second-quarter performance has triggered a sharp rise in US Treasury yields and rekindled debate over future rate increases.

 

[Telamelo]

 

[rcw1]

@Telamelo video unavailable...

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Telamelo]

@Telamelo video unavailable...

Kind regards
rcw1

Strange that as usually allows me to share/upload - thanks @rcw1 for letting me know ?

 

[waterbottle]

GDP figures and durable goods orders for the US came out better than expected.
Crude is now pushing $80 a barrel, and it looks like these prices are being sustained.

The runway is being lit up for further hikes. Also for non-human beings....

 

[divs4ever]

Back in my day, before guvmint could just turn off your money...

i am just glad they thought this through carefully ( the US is a consumer/debt driven economy )

i guess they will blame Russia for the consequences