Inflation

[farmerge]

Australians’ personal debt surpasses $70bn as inflation forces people onto credit cards and loans​

https://www.news.com.au/finance/money/costs/australians-personal-debt-surpasses-70bn-as-inflation-forces-people-onto-credit-cards-and-loans/news-story/614d0de044ec05b14b6d56acff5e25b8

And Mr Telamelo that is the good news story at the moment.
What happens when bankruptcy or worse starts to hit??

 

[divs4ever]

And Mr Telamelo that is the good news story at the moment.
What happens when bankruptcy or worse starts to hit??

CCV and CCP ( wink ) i hold both

thanks for the reminder , i should probably see if it is worth adding a few more CCV

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Surely nvda is a screaming short. Just because AI is hot right now doesn't justify that value.
Or am I missing something?

Well I wouldn't say NVDA is a short atm. but it may retrace a bit.

I have a healthy bite of them and noted some good retracement zones a le Fibonacci on the chart as possible further buy zones.

Onward and upward.




gg

 

[Telamelo]

5.6 million Aussies to get $815 million windfall: ‘Broken promises’​

​

Millions of Aussies are set to get their share of $815 million after the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) cracked down on general insurers’ “broken promises”.

“This systemic failure by insurers to deliver on their pricing promises has seen more than 5.6 million consumers overcharged $815 million for their insurance,” ASIC deputy chair Karen Chester said.

ASIC called on all general insurers to remove unnecessarily complex pricing and to fix their systems, practices and controls so they could deliver on the pricing promises they made to their customers.

The ASIC report revealed that ongoing pricing failures would see general insurers repay $815 million to more than 5.6 million consumers.

5.6 million Aussies to get $815 million windfall: ‘Broken promises’

Millions of Aussies are set to receive a major payout after being lied to about price promises.

au.finance.yahoo.com

 

[farmerge]

5.6 million Aussies to get $815 million windfall: ‘Broken promises’​

​

Millions of Aussies are set to get their share of $815 million after the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) cracked down on general insurers’ “broken promises”.

“This systemic failure by insurers to deliver on their pricing promises has seen more than 5.6 million consumers overcharged $815 million for their insurance,” ASIC deputy chair Karen Chester said.

ASIC called on all general insurers to remove unnecessarily complex pricing and to fix their systems, practices and controls so they could deliver on the pricing promises they made to their customers.

The ASIC report revealed that ongoing pricing failures would see general insurers repay $815 million to more than 5.6 million consumers.

5.6 million Aussies to get $815 million windfall: ‘Broken promises’

Millions of Aussies are set to receive a major payout after being lied to about price promises.

au.finance.yahoo.com

So now with this finding will we see the insurers suddenly cry poor, and then watch the premiums rise to cover what they have to pay out!!!!

 

[Telamelo]

E

So now with this finding will we see the insurers suddenly cry poor, and then watch the premiums rise to cover what they have to pay out!!!!

Umm afraid so @farmerge as likewise thinking same.. the other thing is ASIC has put the onus on these 11 Insurer's to supposedly do the right thing & reimburse 5.6million overcharged customers - apparently impacted customers will be contacted in due course about it (wouldn't bet on it or hold my breath)

 

[farmerge]

E

Umm afraid so @farmerge as likewise thinking same.. the other thing is ASIC has put the onus on these 11 Insurer's to supposedly do the right thing & reimburse 5.6million overcharged customers - apparently impacted customers will be contacted in due course about it (wouldn't bet on it or hold my breath)

Though we did get a reimbursement earlier last year from our insurer for about 2.5k due to mis-calculations over a 7 year period.
This repayment included GST and Interest.
But wouldn't you believe it, the policies were increased by nearly that amount this year, blamed on events over East.
Strange that.

 

[Telamelo]

Though we did get a reimbursement earlier last year from our insurer for about 2.5k due to mis-calculations over a 7 year period.
This repayment included GST and Interest.
But wouldn't you believe it, the policies were increased by nearly that amount this year, blamed on events over East.
Strange that.

Yeah typical as just about everyone I know says same about ongoing increased premiums every year - even if you never ever claimed.

I tend to shop around online & switch Insurer's every year around June or so - did so recently again & saved myself $700 in getting a better deal/policy etc.

Old insurer asks me to do exit survey so I tell them what I think & reason for leaving etc. endeavouring to keep them honest going forward

 

[farmerge]

Yeah typical as just about everyone I know says same about ongoing increased premiums every year - even if you never ever claimed.

I tend to shop around online & switch Insurer's every year around June or so - did so recently again & saved myself $700 in getting a better deal/policy etc.

Old insurer asks me to do exit survey so I tell them what I think & reason for leaving etc. endeavouring to keep them honest going forward

Our problem with insurance is that now one company just about owns them all. Very hard to get rural/primary insurance away from this particular mob so tend to stay with the thieves we know.

 

[sptrawler]

Yep things are extremely tight, young people struggling to put food on the table, when will it end? Not everyone is doing it tough, I know from my kids and close circle of friends, things can get a lot worse.

Skiers outraged over footage of nightmare queues at snowfield

Footage on Saturday shows hundreds of people lined up at Perisher resort's main access run, Front Valley, with one TikToker calling the situation: 'Nightmare fuel.'

www.dailymail.co.uk

Skiers and board riders who shelled out $234 for a lift pass were left outraged as massive queues plagued the action on a popular snowfield over the weekend.

Footage on Saturday shows hundreds of people lined up at Perisher resort's main access run, Front Valley, with one TikToker calling the situation: 'Nightmare fuel.'

The long wait times to get up the slopes are being blamed on bad weather conditions and a slow start the snow season, creating a backlog.
'I felt sick watching this video.'

Another said: 'I was considering going but this made it an easy decision.'

'Guess my season pass won't see much action,' added a third.

'So much for skiing this year,' another commented.

A number of skiers and snowboarders also vented about the cost to ski at the resort, considering the crowd.

A one-day lift ticket for Sunday is $234. One-day lift tickets over the next two months are priced over $200.

That's without taking in additional costs such as equipment and accommodation.

 

[farmerge]

Yep things are extremely tight, young people struggling to put food on the table, when will it end? Not everyone is doing it tough, I know from my kids and close circle of friends, things can get a lot worse.

Skiers outraged over footage of nightmare queues at snowfield

Footage on Saturday shows hundreds of people lined up at Perisher resort's main access run, Front Valley, with one TikToker calling the situation: 'Nightmare fuel.'

www.dailymail.co.uk

Skiers and board riders who shelled out $234 for a lift pass were left outraged as massive queues plagued the action on a popular snowfield over the weekend.

Footage on Saturday shows hundreds of people lined up at Perisher resort's main access run, Front Valley, with one TikToker calling the situation: 'Nightmare fuel.'

The long wait times to get up the slopes are being blamed on bad weather conditions and a slow start the snow season, creating a backlog.
'I felt sick watching this video.'

Another said: 'I was considering going but this made it an easy decision.'

'Guess my season pass won't see much action,' added a third.

'So much for skiing this year,' another commented.

A number of skiers and snowboarders also vented about the cost to ski at the resort, considering the crowd.

A one-day lift ticket for Sunday is $234. One-day lift tickets over the next two months are priced over $200.

That's without taking in additional costs such as equipment and accommodation.

Well oh dear me and blow me over with a feather. if that's all they have to complain about. Go and get a life. Or better still go and do some volunteer work, for those that are really suffering.

 

[mullokintyre]

Inflation in OZ heading down.
From Evil Murdoch press

Inflation has plunged to 5.6 per cent in the year to May, versus 6.8 per cent in the month before, raising hopes the Reserve Bank can pause its punishing series of rate hikes.
Economists had anticipated annual price growth to decelerate to about 6 per cent thanks to lower fuel and travel costs.

The latest figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics come ahead of next Tuesday’s Reserve Bank board meeting, where monetary policymakers will be weighing up the impact of higher borrowing costs on households versus the risk of inflation staying too high for too long.

From the ABS

The monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose 5.6 per cent in the 12 months to May 2023, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

Michelle Marquardt, ABS head of prices statistics, said "This month’s annual increase of 5.6 per cent is the smallest increase since April last year. While prices have kept rising for most goods and services, many increases were smaller than we have seen in recent months."

CPI inflation is often impacted by items with volatile price changes like automotive fuel, fruit and vegetables, and holiday travel.

"It can be helpful to exclude items with volatile price changes from the headline CPI indicator to provide a view of underlying inflation,” Ms Marquardt said. “When excluding these volatile items, the decline in inflation is more modest. The annual increase for the monthly CPI indicator was 6.4 per cent in May, slightly lower than the rise of 6.5 per cent recorded in April and down from a peak of 7.3 per cent in December 2022."

Those pesky volatile items keep skewing things.
Unfortunately for he plebs, they still have to actually deal with those Volatile prices.
Will it be enough for the RBA to pause, or even halt the rate rises?
We will know part of it next week.
Mick

 

[JohnDe]

Inflation in OZ heading down.
From Evil Murdoch press

From the ABS

Those pesky volatile items keep skewing things.
Unfortunately for he plebs, they still have to actually deal with those Volatile prices.
Will it be enough for the RBA to pause, or even halt the rate rises?
We will know part of it next week.
Mick

Went out to dinner at the local pub last night, found a new menu. Our meals were delicious, though size has shrunk the quality was top notch. Tred a new stout on tap, Prancing Pony Brewery's Magic Carpet Ride Imperial Stout, absolutely delicious. The place was warm and inviting, but customers were down by about 60%.

The RBA are working their magic, knocking the spending power of the average person, and business not giving hours to staff.

Inflation falls sharply to 5.6% easing pressure on RBA

 

[over9k]

And the AUD with it.

 

[Knobby22]

Adjusted monthly inflation for May was 0% according to Kohler.
Unadjusted was negative!

Heard 2 economists with opposite views. One says the RBA has overcooked it and we will go into recession. The other said at least 2 rate hikes to go.

 

[mullokintyre]

Adjusted monthly inflation for May was 0% according to Kohler.
Unadjusted was negative!

Heard 2 economists with opposite views. One says the RBA has overcooked it and we will go into recession. The other said at least 2 rate hikes to go.

History is a great teacher, so history is telling me that the RBA will overcook it, if they have not already.
Mick

 

[over9k]

stagflation

 

[mullokintyre]

Bank of Canada hikes to 4.75 after a 3 month pause...

It seems to have worked.
Canada's inflation is at three year lows.
From MSN

Canada's inflation rate decelerated to 3.4 per cent in the year up to May, Statistics Canada said Tuesday, led by sharply lower gasoline prices.

That's a significant slowdown from the 4.4 per cent pace seen in April.

Gasoline prices were the single biggest reason for the deceleration. If gasoline is stripped out, the inflation rate would be 4.4 per cent.

Gasoline prices being down, on average, by more than 18 per cent compared to the record highs they were hitting this time last year was enough to drag down the overall inflation rate just by itself.

But beneath the headline slowdown in consumer prices, many facets of the cost of living are still increasing at an eye-watering pace.

Grocery prices went up at an almost nine per cent pace. That's barely lower than the 9.1 per cent pace clocked in April, and still almost three times the inflation rate.

Food prices have been increasing at a faster pace than the official inflation rate since late 2021.

So it was almost entirely due to fuel prices falling.
Food and grocery barely changed from the previous 9%.
Don't think they have beaten the inflation just yet.
Mick

 

[mullokintyre]

Its probably worth noting that now that the debt ceiling crisis has passed, there will be an absolute flood of bonds onto the market as the US govt starts filling its coffers again to pay for its spending plans.
The question is, who will buy them, and what price will they be willing to pay for them?
Mick

From Schiff gold

Since the end of the fake debt ceiling fight on June 2, the Treasury has borrowed an additional $700 billion pushing the national debt over $32 trillion. Looking at the interest rates on this new debt, it becomes clear that the US government has a big problem.

The surge in borrowing in the wake of the debt ceiling deal was expected. The Treasury is playing catch-up after nearly six months up against its borrowing limit. But even after the Treasury replenishes the federal government’s checking account (called the Treasury General Account or TGA at the New York Federal Reserve Bank), borrowing won’t suddenly stop.

The debt ceiling deal supposedly cut spending, but we know actual spending will continue to rise. Given that the Biden administration is blowing through an average of $500 billion each month and running massive deficits month after month, it’s clear the misnamed “Fiscal Responsibility Act” did nothing to address the root problem.

The problem isn’t purely a function of more debt. The bigger issue is that this new debt comes with a much steeper price tag. Interest on the national debt is rising at an alarming clip.

The trailing 12-month (TTM) interest on the debt clocked in at just under $600 billion in May. This was up from $350 billion at the start of 2022, less than 18 months ago. The government has added an extra $250 billion in expenses per year on just debt service.

This is just the beginning of an upward trend. Based on the current interest payments, the Treasury is paying less than 2% interest on the total debt. But a lot of the debt currently on the books was financed at very low rates before the Federal Reserve started its hiking cycle. Every month, some of that super-low-yielding paper matures and has to be replaced by bills, notes and bonds yielding much higher rates. That means interest payments will quickly climb much higher unless rates fall.

Looking at the Treasury sale on June 26 reveals the extent of the problem. The Treasury sold $162 billion in securities, with $120 billion in short-term Treasury bills with high yields.

• $58 billion in six-month bills at an investment yield of 5.45%
• $62 billion in three-month bills at an investment yield of 5.34%.
• $42 billion in two-year notes at a high yield of 4.67%, amid very strong demand. Longer-term yields are still far below short-term yields.

With this flood of Treasury bills, the share of short-term paper underpinning the debt is approaching 20%. That’s considered the upper limit, meaning the Treasury will soon have to turn to issuing longer-term notes and bonds. That means the Treasury will be locking in higher interest rates for the long term.

An analyst cited by Bloomberg projects a $600 billion rise in notes and bonds beginning in August through the end of the year. Issuance will likely ramp up further in 2024 with a projected additional $1.7 trillion in notes and bonds.

WHO WILL BUY ALL THIS PAPER?

This raises another important question: who is going to buy all of these notes and bonds?

Some of the biggest buyers are in the process of reducing their holdings.

• According to the Treasury Department’s TIC data, foreign buyers shed $140 billion in holdings in April compared to 2022.
• US banks shed $210 billion in Treasury securities and $332 billion in mortgage-backed securities in May compared to a year ago, according to Federal Reserve data. This is continuing fallout from the financial crisis as banks struggle with unrealized losses from holdings they bought when yields were artificially low.
• As it tightens monetary policy to fight inflation, the Fed has been unloading Treasury securities at a rate of around $60 billion a month to shrink its balance sheet.

In effect, the US Treasury is increasing the supply of Treasury securities even as demand is falling.

I wish I could find some equivalent analysis of the spread of interest vs time length of Australian treasuries.
Mick

 

[over9k]

I wish I could find some equivalent analysis of the spread of interest vs time length of Australian treasuries.

And if you want to get more granular:




First graph from statista of all three types combined can be found here to bookmark for a quick refresh/update every month: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1275343/australian-government-bonds-outstanding-type/

Aggregate figure/totals screencap right from the AOFM home page here if you just want to see the number and don't need to compare it to historical data/graph it: https://www.aofm.gov.au/

Screencaps of aggregate debt by type and maturity date can be found from here: https://www.aofm.gov.au/securities

And the raw month-by-month maturity data used to make the graph can be found in excel form here under end of month positions-portfolio aggregate if you want to graph it yourself so you don't have to pay for a statista account: https://www.aofm.gov.au/data-hub



So there you go, now you know how to look up what aus government debt exists and in what form