Rising on opioids and ....fees:Possibly, it's a bet on what the Fed is going to do next week.
We've known for a while now that they've been targeting rates >4% but the market has been in denial and rising on hopium.
Unfortunately, Lowe provides no explanation as to why the Bank has an expectation that inflation will ease to 3% by the end of 2024.The bad news, though, is that inflation has “very quickly” gone from “too low to too high”. (Hence the rapid rise in interest rates at the fastest pace since 1994.)
Lowe has repeated the bank’s expectation that inflation (CPI) will peak at about 7.75% at the end of 2022, and ease to 3% by the end of 2024.
And to add to that, large numbers of older tankers have been scrapped as oil is phased out. To add to the problem, the building of new large bulk oil cargo ships have been severely reduced as forward orders suggested the market for oil would disappear.
- As the EU ban on Russian oil and fuels looms, demand for tankers - particularly ice tankers - has been climbing.
- In early August, the average profit for an oil product tanker jumped to the highest level since 1997, and it is likely that profits have increased since then.
- Fuel markets worldwide are also tight which, combined with soaring tanker prices, will only add to inflation fears.
I have argued on here in the past that the bank was already doing too little too late. Rates should have been rising at the end of last year to signal to the market what was happening, but instead Lowe said he could see no rises till the end of 2023.As for the RBA’s actions over the past couple of years, Lowe says the bigger policy mistake would have been to have too little than to do too much, Lowe says, of the support given during the “very scary” period at the start of the Covid pandemic.
I think its already too late.Still, it’s a “difficult and concerning time for many people” with the rise in the RBA cash rate and consequent increased borrowing costs. Not to act to stem inflation, though, would have worse impacts, Lowe says.
1Q 2022 and 2Q2022 showed negative GDP growth in USA.Actually the inverted 2/10 yield curve DOES NOT 'guarantee' a recession. Having listened to the author (A university researcher/Ph.D student ? of some US University in maybe 1980's or 1990's) of the paper her wrote that assessed this phenomenon in a podcast he stated that 'it all depends on how long the inversion lasts for'. I can't remember for the life of me what timeframe it needs to be to 'statistically confirm the future occurrance of a recession' however just that it is inverted does not confirm a recession.
This may be pedantic but when people quote this fact inversion=recession they misrepresent the researchers work, and he states in the podcast I heard that it annoys him and it all depends on the length of the inversion, 1month, 2 months, 3 months etc.
I think the podcast was either NPR's 'Planet Money' or NPR's 'Indicator podcast in about ....... June/July this year.
Personally thinking ........ I've no idea whether the US IS in recession or will be, however I think it is likely.
Just a comment to ground ourselves in the facts as in the current market we (or some of us) are looking at each comment, tick or trend in order to try to make moeny in the market.
Stay safe out there. Patience.
Gunnerguy.
(DYOR)
I'm starting to see reports suggesting a meaningful slowdown at the "real" end of the economy.Personally thinking ........ I've no idea whether the US IS in recession or will be, however I think it is likely.
To further this post, last time it was a debate between 75 and 100 they delivered with 100 and markets absolutely screamed on the day/got exactly what they wanted. Food for thought.
Agreed. Might head down until the date and then pop afterwards - particularly if the Fed signal that they will soon slow down the pace of rate increases, although this seems unlikely given 10yr bond rising and will probably surpass the June highsTo further this post, last time it was a debate between 75 and 100 they delivered with 100 and markets absolutely screamed on the day/got exactly what they wanted. Food for thought.
Yeah, I'm reading nothing into what will be another slaughter tonight as it's friday and profit taking is reigning supreme. Worth a buy tonight if you're brave.Agreed. Might head down until the date and then pop afterwards - particularly if the Fed signal that they will soon slow down the pace of rate increases, although this seems unlikely given 10yr bond rising and will probably surpass the June highs
I'm not seeing signs of a proper bottom yet so not for me.So while you all bicker like children, I'll ask, did anyone have the stones to buy yesterday?
What do you think those signs will look like?I'm not seeing signs of a proper bottom yet so not for me.
Broken windscreen and glass everwhere, car on it's roof, branches and leaves everywhere, airbags deployed and all partially submerged in a swamp.What do you think those signs will look like?
What do you think those signs will look like?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?
We use cookies and similar technologies for the following purposes:
Do you accept cookies and these technologies?