Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Inflation

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frugal.rock said:
Broken windscreen and glass everwhere, car on it's roof, branches and leaves everywhere, airbags deployed and all partially submerged in a swamp.
Just to reuse the car analogy.
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I'm going to go with no more rate hikes or at least much smaller ones. Once we see 50's and/or 25's we should be past the bottom.
 
over9k said:
What do you think those signs will look like?
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At least some level of mainstream awareness of the decline and reporting on it at a minimum.

Plus some "end of the world" type thinking and actions. Central banks at least acknowledging the stock market decline would be one but preferably at least pausing rates if not outright cutting.

Investors visibly throwing in the towel with some sharp "just get me out" declines would be another.

Another is the old "It's time in the market, not timing the market....". When that statement looks to be correct then the next thing to look for is a top. When it can be shown to be incorrect we're nearer a bottom.

No measure is perfect in itself but I'm really not seeing any of them yet although, in terms of timing, I do think we could be getting fairly close.

A trigger event for a sharp plunge is another possibility. The market's ripe for one in my view, just needs a good enough excuse to come along.

Regarding that latter point and possibilities - anything involving oil, gas and Russia and its allies and/or the war with Ukraine are the most obvious but not the only ones. If Joe Biden drops dead, and given age that's at least plausible, that could well be enough if some chaos follows. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
At least some level of mainstream awareness of the decline and reporting on it at a minimum.

Plus some "end of the world" type thinking and actions. Central banks at least acknowledging the stock market decline would be one but preferably at least pausing rates if not outright cutting.

Investors visibly throwing in the towel with some sharp "just get me out" declines would be another.

Another is the old "It's time in the market, not timing the market....". When that statement looks to be correct then the next thing to look for is a top. When it can be shown to be incorrect we're nearer a bottom.

No measure is perfect in itself but I'm really not seeing any of them yet although, in terms of timing, I do think we could be getting fairly close.

A trigger event for a sharp plunge is another possibility. The market's ripe for one in my view, just needs a good enough excuse to come along.

Regarding that latter point and possibilities - anything involving oil, gas and Russia and its allies and/or the war with Ukraine are the most obvious but not the only ones. If Joe Biden drops dead, and given age that's at least plausible, that could well be enough if some chaos follows. :2twocents
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And o thought denile Biden dropping dead would see the market jump ?
But seriously, when you see how quickly the BTD comes lately,we are not at the bottom.give me someting at or below the covid crash.with 10% inflation, that would be in real term a 20 % or so decrease from covid low and i would be happy to get in as investor
 
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If/when china just give up on covid zero like the rest of us did we'll see energy demand soar again, as will the supply of a lot of the world's stuff, which will bring inflation of everything except energy back down.

Pure guesswork but something tells me they're going to just throw in the towel at some point as the expense of lockdowns just becomes utterly unbearable/the rest of their economy goes to hell so much that they have no choice.

So yeah, still holding my energy plays. China lockdowns lifting monday, fed meeting the next day, there's some positive signs for this week.
 
Ethereum broke through 1400 USD. Risk assets looking shaky....

over9k said:
View attachment 146964

If/when china just give up on covid zero like the rest of us did we'll see energy demand soar again, as will the supply of a lot of the world's stuff, which will bring inflation of everything except energy back down.

Pure guesswork but something tells me they're going to just throw in the towel at some point as the expense of lockdowns just becomes utterly unbearable/the rest of their economy goes to hell so much that they have no choice.

So yeah, still holding my energy plays. China lockdowns lifting monday, fed meeting the next day, there's some positive signs for this week.
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Don't know about this one. If the market is now (finally) pricing in a recession, we could see a new trading range being established for crude. RE: COVID in China, I think we'll have to wait until the 16th Oct for the CCCP plenary meeting. Either Xi gets another term and does whatever he wants, or he gets support from the rest of the party in case **** hits the fan.
 
waterbottle said:
Ethereum broke through 1400 USD. Risk assets looking shaky....



Don't know about this one. If the market is now (finally) pricing in a recession, we could see a new trading range being established for crude. RE: COVID in China, I think we'll have to wait until the 16th Oct for the CCCP plenary meeting. Either Xi gets another term and does whatever he wants, or he gets support from the rest of the party in case **** hits the fan.
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All major index futures are down but brent & wti are up as of this post.
 
Yeah today's just a pucker & hold into the fed meeting tomorrow. Nothing you can do but wait.
 
over9k said:
All major index futures are down but brent & wti are up as of this post.
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oil is easy to explain , a big 'blow' in Puerto Rico ( maybe heading into the Gulf of Mexico , but predicted to go up the US East Coast ) AND a super-storm in Alaska .. can't guarantee it will affect US oil production/refining , but to me that looks the way to bet
 
divs4ever said:
oil is easy to explain , a big 'blow' in Puerto Rico ( maybe heading into the Gulf of Mexico , but predicted to go up the US East Coast ) AND a super-storm in Alaska .. can't guarantee it will affect US oil production/refining , but to me that looks the way to bet
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now i know these things are seasonal and only the intensity ( and damage ) varies , BUT somebody decided to dig deep into their Strategic Oil Reserves this year .. before these storms
 
over9k said:
So, wasn't such a bad night hey? Futures are all in the green too ;)

Let's see if the meeting sends things soaring again.
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Yup, decent bounce in the US after last week’s heavy sell-off. Although it is worth noting that volume on the S&P500 was down nearly 50% compared to trading on Friday.

All trading carries risk, but this could be a signal of a lack of conviction in this attempted rebound with traders likely waiting for the outcome of the FOMC Meeting before making bigger bets on direction.
 
I don't think there are any market moving data releases due next week either, so it's very possible that the Fed meeting may lead to a rally.
Markets still pricing in a 75bp hike though, may get a dump if they go 100bp.
 

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