Imminent and severe market correction

[habs]

the very first post and the second of this thread are great reading at the moment!!!

 

[wayneL]

FWIW.. on MIRC

<Calabia-Yau> Crammer, whom I ussualy don't care for said on cnbc that everyone is totally missing the biggest problem ahead which is the total collapse of the
<Calabia-Yau> mortagage insurers
<Calabia-Yau> he ways if that happens we will see the dow down 2000 points in a day
<Calabia-Yau> for once, he maybe right

 

[reece55]

Apparently this one started in France....

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={D39EF3A7-0DEB-489A-A56F-3676BCF20B1C}

Thanks UF, the Soc Gen chart doesn't look pretty......

I tend to think things are now a little overdone, there will be some selective bargains out there, but boy the punters confidence is down...... Plus, the big gaps have caused rapid margin calls...

Still, tremendous trading opportunities....... All the best in these volatile times..

Cheers

 

[Awesomandy]

OK everyone, can anyone tell me what is going on tonight....

My target on the ASX 200 was met tonight, I expected to see 5400 again, but not in January. This is simply an incredible decline, another 220 points just this evening..... it's going to be a dark day tomorrow, because we are going to breach those lows established in Aug....... I have never seen so much bloodshed on the markets.....

Anyone have significant news to tell?

Cheers

I wouldn't say it's going to be a dark day tomorrow; in fact, it's going to be very bright. Bright red, of course...

Well, I met this girl. Back in November, she convinced me to sell out of my double-geared strategy where I would get a margin loan to invest in a geared fund, where basically at least 75% of it is borrowed money. If I didn't listen, I would've lost that pot...

 

[Kauri]

Apparently this one started in France....
Stocks in Europe sold off massively on Monday morning, with banks in France pacing a retreat as fears of more write-downs intensified.

The news of Soc Gen's percieved troubles was out on Fri night... from memory it was posted in the Dow thread around midnight lacal time, and Soc Gen dropped I think 7% odd immediately.
The European stock collapse comes off the back of a 500 odd-point Nikkei drop and drop of nearly 1400 points on the Hong Kong. The international investment community has been further spooked by all the talk of a U.S recession and following a mixed week of U.S data releases and mounting speculation for a half- point cut at next week"s FOMC the stock market has taken flight, carry trades have been unwound and large scale buying of the Yen . Looking ahead, weak equities look to benefit the Dollar and harm the European units so it seems that stock watching will remain the only way to go. or not..
I thunk.
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

You want gloom , you got it , the virus has hit Europe . They look much better in code , I won't name the banks , but I'm sure many know them .

Note the average start of declines . I'd say the news was out in Feb March and May ...............

 

[ithatheekret]

Must be close to smelling salts time ...........

Looking at the finance sectors ( globally ) the declines are a mixture of balance sheets , BS and a general contraction in credit . I think people must know by now this is a bear market alright , we've just gone through a nice bounce after a muted recession period , mainly by administrations and just about every bank on the planet . Gold reserves were sold off by elected FWs , who really had no mandate to do so . Whilst they were doing that mortgages and loans were being rolled out in Yen and Francs , the appreciation in these currencies are going to force hands soon , and the repercussions will come down fast and swinging , like Brett Lee with a new ball on a pitch .

The AAA status is now defunked this is a catastrophe . This alone has now placed us on the brink , monetary policy better be smack dab on the button , or this will go hyper on us . The sudden spike could also be the final blast financial markets and service sectors could take , this could see policy turn disinflationary at a greater scale , that in turn could change any growth left into mush and after financial mush there can always be a chance of deflationary tones setting into sectors of markets , especially where competition is fierce .


corruptio optimi pessima

 

[Kauri]

and theDax is down 6%... whilst...
an unnamed German official has suggested growth in Europe"s biggest economy will be +1.7% in 2008. He quotes the latest annual economic report to be published on Wednesday with the jobless total expected to fall by 330K to around 3.45Mln on average.
MMMMMMMMM
Cheers
...........Kauri

 

[Wysiwyg]

Must be close to smelling salts time ...........

Looking at the finance sectors ( globally ) the declines are a mixture of balance sheets , BS and a general contraction in credit . I think people must know by now this is a bear market alright , we've just gone through a nice bounce after a muted recession period , mainly by administrations and just about every bank on the planet . Gold reserves were sold off by elected FWs , who really had no mandate to do so . Whilst they were doing that mortgages and loans were being rolled out in Yen and Francs , the appreciation in these currencies are going to force hands soon , and the repercussions will come down fast and swinging , like Brett Lee with a new ball on a pitch .

The AAA status is now defunked this is a catastrophe . This alone has now placed us on the brink , monetary policy better be smack dab on the button , or this will go hyper on us . The sudden spike could also be the final blast financial markets and service sectors could take , this could see policy turn disinflationary at a greater scale , that in turn could change any growth left into mush and after financial mush there can always be a chance of deflationary tones setting into sectors of markets , especially where competition is fierce .


corruptio optimi pessima

Lovely cuppa Marge. Dorothy dear, could you pass the bikkies please.

 

[hacheln_mice]

Nice work hacheln_mice, now i would like you to come away from that wall socket with the knife and tell me if you are still v.v.v.v bullish long term?
Reason being is my eyes tell me a `continuous` slide on indices is happening with the majority swinging to a bearish mind set.More than just a few month decline sort of thing.

Sorry I ever doubted you. I'll go eat humble pie now.----:laser_sho:

Then again, the big ol' trading range scenario is still a possibility. (although the potential bottom of that trading range is now 4800~ instead). To be honest, it is kinda fun to be watching a live 'crash' unfold - oops I used the c word.

opcorn:

 

[clowboy]

FWIW.. on MIRC

Im starting to feel this is going to go lower than anyone imagine's.

The only problem with that is it usually means it won't.

By now you would have thought we would have had at least a small bounce.

Hate to think if the ASX follows the european markets today....

 

[treefrog]

Im starting to feel this is going to go lower than anyone imagine's.

The only problem with that is it usually means it won't.

By now you would have thought we would have had at least a small bounce.

Hate to think if the ASX follows the european markets today....

in the macro field, the potential is huge because the US deficit problem has been propped by foreign investment in US $$ and markets for decades with the US$ being the world's unofficial currency

as the US folds, and US housing, financials and insurers lead the way, it is not hard to envisage the number of foreign investments taken with them and the effect on those "sound" economies

and don't think oilers are necessarilly a safe haven - as the worlds biggest economy applies the breaks so their total order book closes

BHP $24 and WPL $35

 

[Kauri]

There are fears that the US economic problems will spread after a PBOC official said that the Chinese economy will be impacted if the US slows down significantly.
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Awesomandy]

There are fears that the US economic problems will spread after a PBOC official said that the Chinese economy will be impacted if the US slows down significantly.
Cheers
.........Kauri

Given its current growth rate and sky rocketing inflation, it's probably not a bad thing.

Although, before we get there, I wonder what will happen when the Americans go back to work after the long weekend, and find the dow opens 500 points lower. This is probably enough of a catalyst to set off a panic sell off by the general public.

 

[Agentm]

alan kohler has called it today..

title of his report

The market turns grizzly

 

[dhukka]

Whether you've tried to preempt the change in sentiment as many of us have, or not, I still see this current move as sideways.

How we doin now ASXG?

 

[ithatheekret]

Lovely cuppa Marge. Dorothy dear, could you pass the bikkies please.

No vovos left I'm afraid , how about a bush biscuit that should fill the space .

Here's something you can dunk though ..........


Bens got the helicopter warming up , and I would put a strong guess in that he’ll keep up the Santa act , the act is disinflationary tactics . Bens scared of deflation , so much so he’s willing to put us all on an inflation path . Why ? Because he’s trying his darndest to shuffle out and keep the short rate below the inflation rate . The best indicator is the zero maturity money policy . Is the stall tactic we’ve just seen in his um ah , wait and see approach , or is it really a quasi bond market protection ? I’ve measured CPI , PPI and MZM , the CPI data is useless , it’s got more potholes in it than the road to town and that’s a bumpy ride even with a long wheel base . The only growth that has compared with Chinas double digits is monetary supply , Nominal GDP and Real GDP are in freefall not decline , what follows these conditions , do you know . You watch the mining boom slowdown right in front of your eyes , and if Ben is slow off the starters block with the disinflation attitude adjustments , we will see a repeat of the 90-92 drop for an entrée , what am I saying look at the market . You see there’s this rate thing they like to push just that little bit too far , then there’s the dollars exchange rate , not forgetting the strong dollar policy we are battered with weekly , but to cut that off midstream , what about the lingering depreciation in the USD , the deficit that keeps expanding and the last but not least , tax cuts , which started before the Iraq conflict and is still going strong and expected to get stronger by the latest calls of Presidental who would be’s , ( excuse the grammar ) .

Do you remember 1990 through to 1992 ? Well what if I was to tell you we are going to see all the nasty effects . disinflation , deflation across sectors and inflation across others .

That would be new hey ? But not unheard of !

Watch as the correction yolk is released and note the advance of zero maturity as it quickly tries to fill the gaps . The only period of late the zero maturity has not advanced swiftly was after the last real estate rush in the mid 90’s ( 94,95,96 ) , that went splat ,but more interestingly the commercial lenders copped it as they are now , when lending disappeared off the screens . Zero maturity money has not stopped rising since , it is in a zone of perpetual growth . The PPI was in steep decline starting just before 96 right through to 99 . a couple of years after that , we had a correction or was it a crash ……

Have we or have we not listened and watched the Fed , wringing it’s hands sighing about the worry of deflation , right back through Uncle Al to Uncle Ben ? Are they just spluttering it out for noise …..hmmm , yes and no .

It must worry some , because after each bubble pop , money has been gushed into the system , the Fed went that little bit too far on the rates and the meltdown commenced , added to it the non transparent books of the financial sector , the blossoming rise of housing after we had just seen the results of the last effect of the 95 flop . From 2000 to 2007 the level of disinflation has been at it’s highest ever , yet inflation is tame as we are reminded over and over , until you go to buy something , that blows that off the surface .
And now …….. we have a crash , so I expect to see the repeat of 95/96 but on a much grander scale , especially when the frauds and hidings are starting to come out in the financial sectors across the globe , the skeletons in the closet don’t want to come out because they’ve blown their dough and some , now they have to replace it . How are they replacing it though ? That’s easy , they’re getting it from offshore , the same place the US relies on for that needed influx of cash to keep the ball rolling , which has grown from 53% to 61% , the last count was in the 80% region , yet with the latest sovereign funds premium buying inflows that must be bordering 90% by now . Revenue for the US comes directly from Americans , if you have revenues of 22-23% and take away the outlays of GDP which seem to be aiming at 19.4% , the conclusion I have is that the tax cuts will only see a ballooning effect in the fiscal deficit . Wait for the reflating after this mess and watch the effects . If you want to look for the cause of this mess , just go back to period from 1995 -1999 and peruse the catastrophe in the making . Like I said elsewhere , will the real Alan Greenspan please stand up . That period saw an infection set in , the infection spread , it’s called M3 . What are we seeing as a result of this ? A collapse in Cash Reserve Ratios , the Feds name for it is reserve fractional , the tiniest of movements in this ratio for commercial banks will see a shortfall in the required reserve of cash needed to be held . In 1995 the reserve tradition was thrown out the window by the Fed , this was the genesis of the housing collapse we are witnessing right now . The lending rule book was burnt and unqualified borrowers moved into mansions .
Now all of the globe will pay for this stuff up , Americans will pay the most .

Now , those that orchestrated the event want to lock up those who took advantage of it .

You can’t lock kids in a sweet shop and not expect them to gorge themselves .



PS... love and kisses Marge XXXOOO

 

[wayneL]

Front Page in the UK

 

[Kauri]

Front Page in the UK

Yep, I've always been a big believer in salt too, appreciate you posting it..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[wayneL]

Yep, I've always been a big believer in salt too, appreciate you posting it..
Cheers
.........Kauri

I can recommend the stuff they mine in the Himalayas, full of trace minerals and a pretty pink colour too. :