Imminent and severe market correction

[Kauri]

all things being equal and no Burnankie surprises I see the PPT maybe lifting the futures before open to help soothe the masses, but I see their main work being done in the last 1/2 to 1 hour, after all why lift the market early to see it smashed later on.... I thunk...
if my GUESS is correct I will be looking to take a bite out of any rally late in their trading day....
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Trading stopped in Bank Of China ahead of a major announcement. Bank of China was reported to have taken a big hit in Q4 "07 on exposure to subprime investments. Other news hints at more losses at France"s SocGen, Germany"s WestLB and even some Norwegian townships with illegal exposure to subprime assets.
Cheers
........Kauri

 

[Trembling Hand]

Trading stopped in Bank Of China ahead of a major announcement.

Where did you get that from??

 

[Sean K]

.... and even some Norwegian townships with illegal exposure to subprime assets.
Cheers
........Kauri

These rumours just get better and better. Have any materialised Kauri? Are you sure the budgie isn't talking to you during the evening??

 

[>Apocalypto<]

US Futures! 15 min ago

 

[Trembling Hand]

Trading stopped in Bank Of China ahead of a major announcement. Bank of China was reported to have taken a big hit in Q4 "07 on exposure to subprime investments. Other news hints at more losses at France"s SocGen, Germany"s WestLB and even some Norwegian townships with illegal exposure to subprime assets.
Cheers
........Kauri

No halt in Bank of China up to Hong Kong's lunch. Where they halted?
Mongolian stock market?

No news from live HK ex new/alerts?

 

[Kauri]

These rumours just get better and better. Have any materialised Kauri? Are you sure the budgie isn't talking to you during the evening??

Where did you get that from??

Reuters.. screenprint has dumped so can't grab a shot of it...

SHANGHAI, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Trading in Bank of China's (601988.SS: ) Shanghai-listed local-currency A shares was suspended on Tuesday as the company failed to make comments on an "important event", the Shanghai Stock Exchange said.
"Bank of China failed to make a statement

 

[Whiskers]

Latest market RUMOURS..
Here's a few for the day... and a good day it is for it and all...
Emergency Fed meeting tonight...75 bps..
BoJ and BoC have scheduled meetings today, and the BoC is looking at 50 instead of the expected 25bps..
One of the Sov wealth funds backing C is considering backing out..
Fears that Chinese banks need large writedowns..
Crunch to worsen as Fitch downgrades Ambac..
and fact... George Soros has warned that the current situation was "much more serious than any financial crisis since the end of the war."

Enough for now ... I guess
Cheerfull
...........Kauri

As I said earlier, Friday after Bush makes his announcement is probably the last chance for the Fed to announce an early rate cut. The Fed obviously feels that it can't stave off recession without Gov assistance. My feeling is that if the Fed acted first without some commitment from the Gov it would be akin to whittling it's only weapon down to the bone for little or no effect.

Once Bush makes his announcement that the rescue package being proposed is to kick in urgently the Fed may be inclined to make an announcement with some confidence that the markets will respond more positively.

Timing is everything!

If the Fed had seized the moment after Bush spoke and made a 50bp cut on Friday it would have been the best opportunity they had to appear something like an orderly early cut.

Anything they do now is going to have a much greater aire of panic or incompetance about it.

 

[Awesomandy]

Anything they do now is going to have a much greater aire of panic or incompetance about it.

I'm not sure if any rate cuts are going to fix it this time. I would think they'll need to cut 75bp just to stablise it for a few days. But if they cut any more than that, people will probably take it as a bad news, that the economy is in very bad shape. Result: calamity.

 

[Bushman]

I'm not sure if any rate cuts are going to fix it this time. I would think they'll need to cut 75bp just to stablise it for a few days. But if they cut any more than that, people will probably take it as a bad news, that the economy is in very bad shape. Result: calamity.

Err have you seen the global markets at the moment. Investors are assuming the worst re the coming US recession and the impact on company EPS already. ASX is 24% off November highs. I think a 75 bp cut will be the first tangible sign US investors have that the Feds will not let the recession cut too deep.

Now for the good news. Surely the meltdown of US financial markets and the impending US recession will ensure that the Republicans do not get re-elected in 2009?

Dubya the worst US President in history? Iraq, sub prime, recession... I cannot think of a worse one - up there with 'Tricky Dicky' Nixon.

 

[Gundini]

DJIA INDEX 11,528.00 -578.00
S&P 500 1,255.30 -70.00
NASDAQ 100 1,745.50 -104.00

To use one from Waynes scapbook:

 

[Nyden]

631 drop the futures point to, ouch. If the fed don't step in ... our markets are in for some gosh-awful pain tomorrow

 

[Wysiwyg]

Dubya the worst US President in history? Iraq, sub prime, recession... I cannot think of a worse one - up there with 'Tricky Dicky' Nixon.

Yeah for sure.Wars beget a heavy emotional burden.

 

[ithatheekret]

These rumours just get better and better. Have any materialised Kauri? Are you sure the budgie isn't talking to you during the evening??

Yes , they've borrowed in Yen and Francs for mortgages , loans and speculation which has turned against them . They've not been missed , has anything not got hit ............

But they've borrowed offshore without their Treasuries permission , must be Victorians

 

[stockwhizben]

cant wait for Alan Kohlers report on the news tonight. also they need to bring back ABC's lateline business. another great show for me who doesnt have foxtel. channel 7 was saying not to panic and hang in there, hmmm

 

[refined silver]

From Jim Sinclair,

This Is It!
Posted On: Tuesday, October 23, 2007, 2:11:00 PM EST
Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

Many of you have asked what exactly I mean by “This is it,” so here it is in point form:

There is a rampant, serious financial problem with terminal potential and no practical solution hidden just outside of the public’s view (OTC Derivatives).
Because central banks have gotten so out of hand and political which cannot be controlled by investors or the man in the street, we need to adjust our actions so that each person takes on the responsibilities normal to central banks for their own finances.
Everything we buy is getting more expensive and many assets people have, other than gold, are losing value. Because of this credit is not a proper idea regardless of the weak dollar for the majority of people reading this.
Major financial institutions, Internet financial entities and banks operate without transparency where their derivative holdings are concerned. Losses the financial institutions are publishing are considered by media as having extinguished all the risk. I do not believe this. I believe they are still marked to model, only the model is moving slowly towards reality of worthlessness.
There is an acceleration of bankruptcy among financial institutions. This translates to the individual needing to act as their own financial institution by having their share investments in paper form, gold in their close possession with no one in-between and available cash. The individual must be their own bank and central bank as one has failed us and both may.
The savings rate in the US is negative while the expansion of credit is totally over the top.
Business is turning south so the US Federal Budget Deficit will move up exponentially.
The US dollar has become a bombed out and lost battle zone. There is nothing good anyone can say fundamentally about the US dollar.
Non US entities are fed up with financing the US consumer and US Federal activities. This is clear from the recent TIC report, which is now down trending.
Financial privacy is non-existent.
There is a model for exactly what is happening now and that is the Weimar Republic. Name war retributions as OTC derivatives and you begin to see the picture.
The US dollar has now made a clear indication of the final head and shoulders; the massive formation from the absolute top is breaking down.
Number 12 is the item that impacts all of the above because of the dollar’s technical position now beginning to reflect the dire fundamentals. This is it

This is it because you now have to perform not only as your own bank but also as your own central bank. This is it because the US dollar has completed a major head and shoulders bear formation, pulled back to the underside of the neckline and thereafter declining below the major support line drawn from the beginning of the big dollar bull under Chairman Paul Volcker. Volcker made the dollar and Greenspan gave it all back to Asia.

The dollar break below the recent and most important major, major support line drawn from 1980 to now is the fundamental basis which will push Gold to $1650. The US dollar is without any doubt in my mind is going to .7200, followed by .6200.

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare to defend yourselves.

Posted On: Monday, January 21, 2008, 2:32:00 PM EST

Emergency Action Required Immediately To Prevent Public From Joining The Panic Tomorrow

Author: Jim Sinclair

Posted On: Monday, January 21, 2008, 2:32:00 PM EST

Emergency Action Required Immediately To Prevent Public From Joining The Panic Tomorrow

Author: Jim Sinclair

Dear CIGAs,

This is it.

The DJII futures are down over 500 points.

If the Federal Reserve fails to take emergency action before the US opening tomorrow, you will see the DJII open down 1000 points as the public joins this professional panic.

Everything you see happening is contained in the Formula, which will be the catalyst that takes gold again above $887.50 and to $1650.

As long as you have followed my plea to have NO MARGIN on anything gold I see no problems.

If you have margin the rule is never meet a margin call, but sell whatever is needed to meet the call or more, never less.

It is a better wager that the Fed will immediately drop rates by 1 full percentage point.

It is a slam dunk that all Western central banks will cut loose and flood the world with more liquidity than ever seen before.

If central banks fail to cause a torrent of liquidity from their unending check books then $450 trillion of derivatives will take us to the world of Mad Max.

Monetary inflation ALWAYS causes PRICE inflation even without strong business conditions.

Prices of hard and transportable assets rise regardless of business conditions.

All currencies fall and the stronger currency is the laggard in the race to the bottom of the tank.

 

[Gundini]

I saw Kauri's budgie taking a bath yesterday....

I knew there was trouble on the horizon.....

I just hope he's not polishing the bell, as we speak, in an attempt to get the best scrap price, that would be devistating!!!

DOW down 650 on the futures, BTW....

 

[treefrog]

noted the SBS news tonight had a financial honcho in europe from an investment firm over there using not the R word but the D word for 2008 and compared potential severity to..............um...... thats right - 1929

 

[Edwood]

noted the SBS news tonight had a financial honcho in europe from an investment firm over there using not the R word but the D word for 2008 and compared potential severity to..............um...... thats right - 1929

makes sense tho Treefrog, current global debt levels as a % of global GDP are much higher than pre-1929

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Well, after large down openings a number of Europeans coming up, with FTSE 100 just turning green. Exhaustion day?