Imminent and severe market correction

[Kauri]

OOOOppps
The New York Times carried a piece over the weekend saying that a new government report shows that the U.S. economy may have created far fewer jobs this year than the payroll data implies. The sharp downward revision in Q2 personal income growth, when better employment figures were available, i.e. unemployment tax collections, make it likely that job creation data may be revised in coming months. Personal income grew 1.6% in Q2 against 4.5% estimated, suggesting job creation at 50,000 a month, not the current 126,000 estimate and an economy far weaker than had been thought. If this report gains credence, calls for a 50 pts rate cut will intensify.

Cheers
........kauri

 

[explod]

OOOOppps
The New York Times carried a piece over the weekend saying that a new government report shows that the U.S. economy may have created far fewer jobs this year than the payroll data implies. The sharp downward revision in Q2 personal income growth, when better employment figures were available, i.e. unemployment tax collections, make it likely that job creation data may be revised in coming months. Personal income grew 1.6% in Q2 against 4.5% estimated, suggesting job creation at 50,000 a month, not the current 126,000 estimate and an economy far weaker than had been thought. If this report gains credence, calls for a 50 pts rate cut will intensify.

Cheers
........kauri

Well of course, the system has been fudging the figures big time over the last couple of years. Will be interesting to see how much longer they can suck in the sheeple. Must be getting very close to breaking point now.

 

[numbercruncher]

Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. corporate profits are in a recession, and the entire economy may not be far behind.

Slower sales and higher energy and labor costs are forcing companies from Bear Stearns Cos. to Pitney Bowes Inc. to reduce spending and hiring. Their efforts to keep earnings from eroding even further raise the risk that the economy, already weakened by the steepest housing slide since 1991, may shrink sometime next year.

``The earnings recession has already arrived,'' says David Rosenberg, North America economist for Merrill Lynch & Co. in New York. ``We are going to see an economic recession in '08.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_TgRes4VjjU&refer=home

 

[Kauri]

Life's hard.. it seems

December 4th. Merrill Lynch has just issued a comprehensive outlook for 2008 this morning, forecasting that the Fed will need to cut rates to 2% in 2008 from current levels of 4.25%. (Indeed it is very arguable that rates will have to go that low just to fund the mortgage resets that peak in Q1 2008.) Merrill"s economists also forecast the first consumer recession in the US since 1991. The investment bank is also tipping a Japanese rate cut next year as well as growth slows in Japan.

also just wondering... was it in the late 80's in Aussie that we last had slowing growth and trade deficet blow-outs...

Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[Kauri]

Life's hard.. it seems

Cheers
.........Kauri

On both sides of the Pond it seems...
Cheers
..........Kauri
PS.. now there is talk that they may nationalise NR!!!!

Sydney December 5. The FT, Guardian, Telegraph and Times all lead with similar stories saying that the FSA has warned mortgage lenders that 1.4mln homeowners face a sharp jump in loan repayments and many may find it impossible to refinance their mortgages, while the Independent leads on a bearish round up of the UK"s economic problems entitled "is Britain heading for the perfect storm?".
These sentiments combined with the record fall in the Nationwide Consumer Confidence release today suggest that a negative bias is likely at the London open, with pressure building on the MPC for a rate cut on Thursday.

 

[ithatheekret]

We should lend the US Paul Keating .

Why is the Fed rolling on its principals and trying to buy off a recession ?

Do they really think that waving the magic wand and inducing a rate cut will save there backsides ?

I can just see the Reserve Bank bailing out mortgages taken out that should never have been issued ......... NOT .

No they let the market forces sort themselves out .

Generation Y in the US is just about to be stuck with the bill .

 

[ithatheekret]

One thing that could be a look in to , would be a discussion , per views to the business cycle . My view is that we are at the closing end of a 15 year cycle now , credit is tightening and becoming expensive , whilst core prices are rising along with stagflationary hits at staples as well .

Will the cycle , with the Fed now cutting , as is believed , be stretched to snapping point as the elasticity gives ?

I've heard comments that Feb 08 will see a cut by the RSB , I think it absurd to even test the thinking water with that idealogy . That would mean that the Reserve is willing to placate a markets whim and not concentrate on inflation and peaks in the trading / exchange balance . The peaks are due to a credit overflow , these overflows have to be brought under control , a rate cut or pause will have no effect on them , better they find a Samaritan . A hike may well be the fatal blow for many , but these are loans that struggled to meet the first years repayment . A better gauge for the RSB than saving the blind is the 90 day bill , the balance of trade and the causes of inflation .

I would like to know whether the Treasury Dept. had to be saved from a 43 cent sell down , I have always been suss on that one .............

I believe the administration did ........ in an attempt to prolong the business cycle .

 

[ithatheekret]

Just listening to Neil Dwayne on CNBC , had a giggle at his comment ,

" clearly the US economy has stalled " .

No chit Neil , oh look the Fed is already out pushing ............

 

[ithatheekret]

We saw the Contraction rally in the US , now we'll see if the UK gets one too , there all having sphincter reactions , rate cut will be the markets rally cry ........

 

[ithatheekret]

my stop / trailer and rev stop all got hit at once ???? moneybags are back .

I'm ....... apparently ......... now short , best be closing that out .

 

[ithatheekret]

out 110.18 somewhere in long 110 and all the 2's

 

[ithatheekret]

US futures are looking reasonable . Is this the Chrissie rally , looks like a 120+ open for the Dow ? Will there be a last hour sell off ?

 

[nomore4s]

US futures are looking reasonable . Is this the Chrissie rally , looks like a 120+ open for the Dow ? Will there be a last hour sell off ?

FSTE100 is up over 100 points atm as well, not that it's as relevent but.....

 

[ithatheekret]

Someone get on the blower and get Kev to freeze rates for 5 years .......

I wonder how the banks would handle that one ?

I can just see the bank boards lining up to get on this one ......... NOT .

Does that mean we should steer clear of US lenders for another 5 years ?

Or has Bush lost the plot as well as the constitution ...............

Free and fair market is it ?

Administrations create a problem and everyone else has to solve it !

 

[Kauri]

Someone get on the blower and get Kev to freeze rates for 5 years .......

I wonder how the banks would handle that one ?

I can just see the bank boards lining up to get on this one ......... NOT .

Does that mean we should steer clear of US lenders for another 5 years ?

Or has Bush lost the plot as well as the constitution ...............

Free and fair market is it ?

Administrations create a problem and everyone else has to solve it !

Yep, if you backed a horse to win at 5/1 and then the bookie decided to only pay out at 3/1 I don't think many people would be returning to his stand... The US just might be creating more problems for themselves further down the track...
Cheers
..........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Here I was thinking his name was George , no we find out it's really Wally .

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Quoting quotes...... and analogies to a previous period.........

"... a serious depression seems improbable"

- Harvard Economic Society, November 10, 1929


"The idea that we're going to see a collapse in the housing market seems to me improbable”

- John Snow, Secretary of the Treasury

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."

- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930


"... the outlook continues favorable..."

- HES Mar 29, 1930


"... the outlook is favorable..."

- HES Apr 19, 1930


"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."

- HES May 17, 1930


"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."

- HES June 28, 1930


"... the present depression has about spent its force..."

- HES, Aug 30, 1930


"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."

- HES Nov 15, 1930


"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."

- HES Oct 31, 1931

"The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process...rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time."

- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

"One of the reasons we think this market will start to run out of gas at some point is that you've essentially created as much gold from straw as you can from this financial alchemy,"

- Scott Simon, mortgage chief at California bond house Pimco.

 

[ithatheekret]

Lots of rhetoric hey Unc.

I know we will end up sneezing due to their self inflicted problems , but ...... I honestly believe , due to explicit research in the growth potentials of emerging countries , which Australia really is in the same basket , due to population and the timespan of our heritage .
That we will buffer the consequences of the financial sector and the housing sector , through implementation of infrastructure upgrades nationally , providing the demand side of the market for the next 30 years .

The US downturn is not an if , it's a definite , it may cause a few hiccups in our indexes , then that will be counteracted by new companies moving up indexes as nonperformers are delegated down .

For all the cr^p we throw at George ( myself included ) , I know that Hillary may get press out of her mutterings , but she does not have the answer to the problem . The only hope I see , but doubt he'd get a decent run at it , is Guilliani , the man can manage large populations and the economies entwind . He is a leader . One whom I have a great respect for , even more so after he walk down that street to the tower , through the dust saying we are going this way and bolstering his retreative minded squad , that would have been taken over by human nature to survive and run away from harms way . That then showed a heroic man , it also shows that heroes are those prepared to hold ground or advance into danger , just that little bit longer than everyone else . If he was in a British , Aussie or NZ uniform , he should have got the VC in my books .

 

[bvbfan]

Those questioning why the Fed is cutting need look no further than examining what the Federal Reserve is.

The Fed was constructed by the major banks back in the 1900's so no wonder they are bailing them out now.

The Fed is not independent as they would have you believe

 

[wayneL]

BoE has just cut .25% as well.

Idjits.