Imminent and severe market correction

[Magdoran]

I took a lot from McLaren, I especially liked The Foundations course, it changed my view of the markets quite a bit.

I've no idea about the magnitude of a move following a time vibration, at least not at this stage of knowledge. Been talking about this with Magdoran too but haven't heard from him from quite a while, hope he's ok.
Magnitude is my main area of study since a few months already and for now I am learning to apply EW because I see it as a potential tool to help me gauge the magnitude of the next move. I think is a great complement to time cycles.

Hello Soso,


Fully agree about the compatibility of EW and time cycles. I don't know how people can trade EW as effectively without understanding time... EW in context is very powerful in my view, and can reveal a lot when allied with the right analysis styles.

EW is still however subjective, and requires the acceptance that any form of analysis involves taking a perspective and making an assessment of the probabilities, and accepting that even the best pattern can fail for any number or reasons. The art is in knowing where the fail points are.

Magnitude is indeed a quagmire. Sometimes it is fairly evident, other times it is elusive.

Keep up the good work, and hope to see some more progress in time!


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[barney]

Hello Soso,


Fully agree about the compatibility of EW and time cycles. I don't know how people can trade EW as effectively without understanding time... EW in context is very powerful in my view, and can reveal a lot when allied with the right analysis styles.

EW is still however subjective, and requires the acceptance that any form of analysis involves taking a perspective and making an assessment of the probabilities, and accepting that even the best pattern can fail for any number or reasons. The art is in knowing where the fail points are.

Magnitude is indeed a quagmire. Sometimes it is fairly evident, other times it is elusive.



Keep up the good work, and hope to see some more progress in time!


Kind Regards


Magdoran

On "Public Forum Level", Welcome Back Mag .............. Many of us around here have missed your insightful comments .................. Glad the US move has been fruitful so far ................ Pity about the snow ............ Then again you can always take up skiing!!

:bounce::bananasmi.......... Cheers.

 

[ithatheekret]

It seems that a new threat for the bluechip car makers has arrived , whether the product is allowed past border controls , is an entirely different subject . Accept that the organic growth sought is in emerging countries , where the booms have put transport on a new footing for many households .

With credit drying up and fuel prices at crunching levels , small and economical is the latest western call , but emerging countries will look for small and cheap .

The Chinese built Chery QQ6 is one example .

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hello Soso,


Fully agree about the compatibility of EW and time cycles. I don't know how people can trade EW as effectively without understanding time... EW in context is very powerful in my view, and can reveal a lot when allied with the right analysis styles.

EW is still however subjective, and requires the acceptance that any form of analysis involves taking a perspective and making an assessment of the probabilities, and accepting that even the best pattern can fail for any number or reasons. The art is in knowing where the fail points are.

Magnitude is indeed a quagmire. Sometimes it is fairly evident, other times it is elusive.

Keep up the good work, and hope to see some more progress in time!


Kind Regards


Magdoran

Welcome back Mag,

hope all is well with you, and you're all settled in.

Cheers

 

[Magdoran]

On "Public Forum Level", Welcome Back Mag .............. Many of us around here have missed your insightful comments .................. Glad the US move has been fruitful so far ................ Pity about the snow ............ Then again you can always take up skiing!!

:bounce::bananasmi.......... Cheers.

Hello Barney,


Thanks for the warm welcome! I have been busy indeed, and will be for a while... Still unpacking boxes, and it's really cold in December in this hemisphere! Winter is not my favourite time...

Hope you are well and trading is becoming clearer to you...

It's a shame I missed you while I was in Sydney. Not sure when I'll be in town next.

It may take some time too to get back into the swing of things on ASF. I'm quite busy here on several fronts, so may take till Christmas to get on top of everything again...

Having fun here though, but there aren't enough hours in the day...

How about you Barney?


Regards

Mag

 

[Magdoran]

Welcome back Mag,

hope all is well with you, and you're all settled in.

Cheers

Hello Joseph,


Settling in fine thanks (despite a lot of boxes still to unpack), and getting used to the cold here.

How are things with you? I hear you've regressed to moving averages... what happened?

Hope you're well, and trading well!


Kind Regards


Magdoran

 

[wavepicker]

Hello wavepicker,


I finally remembered my ASF password! I'm now settled in my new house in the states (it's #$%&@ freezing here - it actually snowed... looks like a white xmas for me).

Good to see your posts continued while I was off line until I remembered my password!


Kind regards


Magdoran

Hello Mag,

Sorry to hear about the weather! Ofcourse you can always come back to Melbourne in a few years if really find it hard getting used to it!

Good to see you finally found your password again. Will catch up with you soon, for now taking a much needed break for 10 days in Western Victoria, have a great white Xmas!!

All the Best

Wavepicker

 

[Kauri]

December 10. The ECB official said there is no credit crunch in Europe at present but does not rule out a possible worsening in the future. Bini Smaghi also feels that banks should be more transparent on future strategies.

Wonder where he's been hiding... mind you, as he opines, there is no credit crunch... however it may get worse.. where are all the reliable spin docs when you need them..
Cheers
.........Kauri

 

[ithatheekret]

Wonder where he's been hiding... mind you, as he opines, there is no credit crunch... however it may get worse.. where are all the reliable spin docs when you need them..
Cheers
.........Kauri

UBS stuffed him in a dumpster at a cheese factory

 

[Kauri]

Halleleuaaaagh praise the ...et al... good news is good and bad news is good... for today at least, until the day of reckoning...

Cheers
Laurie C.

December 10th. The DJIA has now posted triple digit gains with the index up 100 pts helping to underpin the USD. News that MBIA is getting a $1 bln capital injection from Warburg Pincus appears to have aided sentiment.

 

[Kauri]

too inebriated to grasp... but it does not have a good smell... (or is that me on a warm December night)
Cheeeeeeeeeeeeeeers
............Kauri

December 10th. Dow Jones is reporting a CNBC headline that Bank of America is freezing a money market fund. The news, in the wake of the UBS and MBIA cash injections, will further underpin concerns over the financial markets and subprime woes.

 

[Kauri]

the more the merrier, billions down, dow up, gotta love it...
Kauri
.......Cheers..............

Last at 1.1277, USD/CHF has made a nice comeback from the early NY lows at 1.1235, propelled upward by triple-digit gains in the Dow, despite fresh credit market concerns from MBIA, UBS, SocGen and BofA. The latter, which entails the bank freezing the Columbia Strategic Cash Portfolio money-market fund, has helped trim gains in the stock market, the dollar and carry trades, but the Dow remains up 87 pts at this writing, perhaps still simply pricing in more easing by the Fed tomorrow and beyond.

 

[Edwood]

late night was it Kauri?

Morgan Stanley has issued a full US recession alert

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/12/10/bcnusa110.xml

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Woops, the Lemming's demanded 50 bp's, but Benny gave them 25.

And now for something completely different, a dissenting bull (boo, hiss), or is that a capitulating bull?

Richard Berner has gone all soft, now saying a decent recession is on the cards.

Morgan Stanley has become the first major Wall Street firm to predict a recession in the US economy come 2008.

A strong economic downturn has already been anticipated by many investors as mortgage defaults have snared many lenders, but Morgan Stanley deepened the sense of crisis in the US economy by providing its own dark outlook.

The financial services giant predicted that 2008 yearly growth would be as low as one per cent, well below other international forecasts and reflecting an ever more pessimistic outlook on the US.

Predictions were made by top Morgan Stanley economists Richard Berner and David Greenlaw on the firm's Economic Forum website, where further figures were provided, including predictions of zero per cent growth in GDP.

Berner and Greenlaw said that the tightening in credit conditions and the slump in business capital spending "sound like the recipe for a serious recession, so why do we think it will be mild?".

They also reiterated the centrality of mortgages to the health of the economy, claiming: "There's little prospect for a recovery in housing anytime soon. We think overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years – a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959."

 

[wayneL]

Woops, the Lemming's demanded 50 bp's, but Benny gave them 25.

Bad, BAD BOY Benny!

That reaction has real comedic value for mine... a bunch of spoilt brats epitomized by the foot stomping, ranting, fuming Cramer idiot. (capitalize profits, socialize losses etc)

ROTFLMAO

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Ever the voice of reason, Bill Gross is mandatory reading.

[snip]
As the commercial paper market shrinks by hundreds of billions a month, central banks worldwide are facing a giant stress test of the modern-day shadow banking system. The publicized and photographed overnight "runs" on Countrywide and the UK’s Northern Rock in mid-August were nothing compared to what’s taking place in the shadows of the real banking system. Credit contraction, with its inevitable companion of asset destruction, is spreading with the speed of an infectious bacterial disease............
[snip]

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Market+Commentary/IO/2007/IO+December.htm

 

[Awesomandy]

Woops, the Lemming's demanded 50 bp's, but Benny gave them 25.

And now for something completely different, a dissenting bull (boo, hiss), or is that a capitulating bull?

Richard Berner has gone all soft, now saying a decent recession is on the cards.

You can only cut interest rates so far before inflation starts running its own course. I've been telling friends in the past few months that a recession is inevitable, it's just a matter of time when it eventually hits. Well, it's not too much to worry about. It's just a part of life in the general economic cycle.

 

[Aussiejeff]

You can only cut interest rates so far before inflation starts running its own course. I've been telling friends in the past few months that a recession is inevitable, it's just a matter of time when it eventually hits. Well, it's not too much to worry about. It's just a part of life in the general economic cycle.

Well, the DOW *only* fell 294 points (or just 2.14%) .... I would have thought the market knee-jerk would have been much worse than that if the sentiment to the smaller rate cut was seriously negative?

It will be interesting to see whether a quick *knee-jerker* is all this correction turns out to be for stocks. Hopefully Santa will save the day????


AJ

 

[nikki]

hmmmmm, similarities to the last uptrend in August/september is hillarious.

what is with this 2.15% drops and ups - i wish i had a good day trading account. i would be having a ball.

 

[Kauri]

Well, who would have guessed it, the spin is coming thick and fast...already... and the ink has hardly dried on the ann.. Seems that the US really does believe in Santa Claws.
Cheers
........Kauri

CNBC head economist, Steve Leisman, said he was contacted by a high level Fed source who said the Fed was actively considering implementing additional tools including further cuts in the Discount rate and longer term and collateral conditions for Discount and repo borrowings to help address the liquidity-funding problems.
Some analysts feel that the revelations could see US equities bounce a bit when they open tomorrow. Wall Street was extremely disappointed by the Fed decision not to be more aggressive in lowering the Discount rate and there was hope as well that the Fed would lengthen the term.